strib: Change is in the air - maybe

(it is from LAT and probably was posted before, but is worth repeating)

StarTribune.com

May 21, 2006

Change is in the air - maybe

Voter discontent is seething much as it did before the Republican midterm sweep of 1994. But the political landscape has changed hugely since then, making it tougher for Democrats to pick up seats in Congress.

Ronald Brownstein and Janet Hook, Los Angeles Times

WASHINGTON - In this year's midterm elections, control of Congress may turn on whether the public's desire for change is powerful enough to overcome the resistance to change built into the political system.

Discontent with President Bush and the Republican-controlled Congress is virtually screaming from public opinion surveys.

(snip)

But today's wave of dissatisfaction is crashing into a political structure that is much more stable than the one in 1994. It now is tougher to beat House incumbents or to win Senate seats in states that usually back the other party in presidential elections. To gain a majority in the House, Democrats need a net gain of 15 seats. To capture the Senate, they need a net gain of six seats.

(snip)

No expert in either party is forecasting Democratic gains comparable to the 52 House and eight Senate seats the GOP picked up in 1994. One reason is that Republicans have more effectively discouraged retirements. This year, they are defending one open seat in the Senate and 18 in the House; Democrats 12 years ago had six open Senate seats and 31 open House seats. The larger challenge for Democrats is that there are far fewer competitive House districts than in 1994, giving the party a smaller battleground. At roughly this point in 1994, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report identified 100 House seats as competitive; now, it labels only 35 as such... The decrease in competitive seats partly reflects the way district lines were redrawn after the 2000 census -- with the aim of preserving safe seats for most incumbents of both parties.

(snip)

http://www.startribune.com/587/story/445235.html