Which issue will destroy McCain in the 2008 GOP primaries?

You know, i'm beginning to think that McCain won't even win the Republican nomination. First, there is his immigration bill, which was co-sponsored by Ted Kennedy of all people. Can't you already see the ads in New Hampshire and Iowa?

But I always thought that McCain had an advantage in the west, you know being from Arizona and all. But given how big this issue has become to Republicans - big enough that many Republicans are openly running away from both Bush and McCain - and given how big of an issue it is in the west specifically, I've got to say that i'm not so sure anymore.

Then there was this federal amendment today about gay marriage. McCain voted against it (one of only six Republicans to do so). His "good buddy" Jerry Falwell recently said that he can't imagine any Senator with national political aspirations (cough, cough - YOU JOHN MCCAIN) to vote against the amendment and still expect his and other religious figures support.

Again, I can see the ads right now...

Personally, I think McCain is burnt toast. He's done for 2008. If George Allen survives his election, he will be the nominee. If he loses, I imagine a total free-for-all on the Republican side in early 2008.

So my question is this: Which issue do you think destroys John McCain's chances for the Republican nomination for President in 2008 more?

Feel free to discuss. (Perhaps you don't believe it will affect him at all). Just let your voices be heard.

I think that may catch up with him.

You honestly don't think it will affect his position? That's just crazy. You guys realize that McCain is the Republican Lieberman, right? You guys realize how big of an issue immigration and gay marriage are for Republicans right?

I will be shocked if McCain wins one primary.

the Fundies will most likely rally around him in 08'. Allen's thugs may bring up the same stuff that Bush brought up in 2000.

I won't care much. But if he wins the election, I think our country is done.

I'm talking about the Republican primaries here, not the general. You think they're going to vote for someone who supports amnesty and legalization for illegal immigrants? Have you not been paying attention to what has been going on? You don't think opposing the Marriage Ammendment will hurt him with the Christian Conservatives whom he has been pandering to lately?

McCain already had problems with the base before all of this. Can't you see the commercials against McCain in Iowa and New Hampshire?

I think he is done. The question now is who will replace him as frontrunner.

any politician in the country.

In most respects, he's the frontrunner for the GOP.

But in a hypothetical scenario, I wonder about his health. I wonder if he might not re-evaluate after the 06 elections sometime, partly because his health is not what it should be to mount a sustained, exhausting campaign for the presidency, and partly because his relatively young family might want his remaining good-health years for the family.

He poses a strong challenge to Democrats, even if progressives are appalled at his right-wing voting record and his unfortunate campaign hugs with Junior. Many independents and Reagan Republicans like him, and he'd have no trouble claiming a large percentage of veterans' votes.

But I wonder if his health won't be the issue that shuts the door on an 08 run.

My guess is "nothing" considering how frigtened Democrats seem to be in telling the truth about Republicans...And also considering how frightened Democrats are of going against any pre-established media perception.

(ex: I predict many Democrats would be too frightened to buck the "McCain is a good guy- not like the other Republicans" meme- just like they were too frightned to say Bush failed to prevent 9/11 or that Saddam had no WMDs when the media perceptions said otherwise...)

BUT- if we get a Democrat who is unafraid to call Mccain to the carpet, we can beat him on any number of lies & crimes he is associated with.

I'm saying other Republicans will attack him.

McCain won't be considered "moral" enough for the Fundies. George Allen will walk to the nomination.

It is his pro-choice position that will take him down. That and his Bush hugging pics from 2004.

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I just think the "moderate" GOP vote will be split between McCain, Guliani and/or whoever else decides to throw their hat into the ring and the right wing will once again decide the candidate. Just as many Dems have issues with the idea of Sen. Clinton as the anointed one, there are even more Republicans who take issue with McCain as the "one". Nothing that is going on in the GOP thus far indicates that there will be the kind of rallying around McCain that there was around Bush.

Another Repub will Rove him.

This is what they do.

This is who they are.

about the immigration situation.

I don't know anything about George Allen's wife, but I'd wager that she's probaby docile enough that they feel she can be "kept in line."