Straight talk: Can Dean defeat Bush?

Zafar Sobhan

The conventional wisdom is that Howard Dean can't beat George Bush in the US presidential election in November. During a recent televised debate among the candidates for the Democratic nomination for president, the moderator Ted Koppel asked the candidates to raise their hand if they thought that Dean could beat Bush. In the most comical moment of the US political season so far, the only candidate who raised his hand was Dean!

The principal accusation leveled against Dean is that he is too left-wing to appeal to the general electorate and that George Bush would defeat him in a landslide. But the conventional wisdom is wrong. Dean could give Bush a real run for his money in November next and here's why.

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It is Dean's political dexterity that is his most compelling attribute and one that will make him a formidable opponent come November. He was the only candidate who correctly diagnosed the groundswell of anger against Bush and made it the centerpiece of his campaign. Democratic voters have been waiting a long time for a candidate who doesn't apologise for being a Democrat and who promises to give the Republicans as good as he gets. Dean recognised and tapped into this sentiment and has been reaping the rewards ever since.

The second piece of evidence pointing to Dean's political adroitness is his building up of a network of supporters and volunteers through the internet. He is now in command of what amounts to his own political machinery. He has raised more money than any of the other candidates for the nomination and has in less than a year set up a formidable grassroots organisation of his people in every state in the country. Only among the chattering classes in Washington, where parroting the conventional wisdom of the day passes for political discourse, could such evidence of political virtuosity be contemptuously dismissed.

snip

In October I wrote that the race had essentially narrowed down to Dean versus Clark and the events of the last two months have only served to confirm this prediction. Clark is still a good candidate and would most likely also do very well against Bush in November. He still has a shot of beating Dean, although I think it is fairly safe to count out the rest of the field.

The point is not that Clark wouldn't be a good candidate in November -- he would -- but that it would be a mistake to think that Dean is unelectable in a head-to-head match-up with George Bush. Dean has what it takes to go all the way, and if he receives the Democratic nomination for the presidency, expect him to make a formidable candidate.

http://www.thedailystar.net/2003/12/25/d31225020326.htm

that the Rethugs will do anything, and I mean anything, to smear whoever is nominated by the Dems. I have read threads where supporters of other candidates think their person is invincible in this regard, simply because the heat is focused on Dean right now. I want to assure them that if their candidate wins one of the early primaries, Rove and his associates will be on their case big time.

Personally, I think Dean has weathered criticism well. And I don't think the 'too liberal' spin is going to work, because Dean has a proven track record in VT to show he is a centrist. I think it will take a lot of one on one talking with voters to get the news of Dean (or whoever wins the nomination) out, because the media is in the pocket of the right wing and will be slanted to the right.

That alone will doom his candidacy.

I do not think he can carry the swing states needed to elect. Florida/Tennessee/Arkansas/Missouri/West Virginia/New Mexico/Nevada. Those are states that Clark (just to use your two examples) would have a strong chance of carrying in November (probably not Florida, even though there are 310,000 vets in TampaBay alone)

Vermont Governor vs. Texas Governor and incumbent president
Skiing deferment vs. "Served in Uniform in Time of War"
Rich kid vs. Rich kid

Dean will be a formidable candidate, but why not field the best candidate? I don't feel lucky. If Dean gives the answer about the skiing deferment that he gave in the Iowa debate, we are all cooked.

Dean will be painted as a slightly more pugnacious Al Gore: A rich kid who didn't serve in Vietnam, whose dad bought him an MD, and who was the semi-popular governor of a tiny liberal state.

If Bush goes on stage with Clark, on the other hand, Bush will be forced to show respect. Clark will repeat everything he has been saying about the environment, about true patriotism, about fiscal responsibility, etc., and people will be listening for a change.

If Clark disagrees with him, Bush will be dismissive. Bush is dismissive toward anyone that disagrees with him. Why set up straw men and fantasies only to be dissappointed?

I have nothing in particular against Clark except, perhaps, his past words of support for Reagan and the DynastyBush.

Dean has ignited a brushfire of support because he is in sharp and unapologetic contrast to shrub. IMO Bush is very vulnerable. Virtually all of his policies are unpopular with the public. The only thing saving him is the perception that he is a "decisive" leader. The only way to counter this is to run someone who is also perceived to be "decisive" and go after the dumbson head on. Dean will do that.

Dean '04....

n/t

but it is demeaning to carrots to mention them in the same sentence with Shrub! :)

Twice now Dean has lauded Bush Senior's Foreign Policy.... how about some consistency.

Bush's approval ratings are at best 60% and tht's probably overstating it. If Dean gets the nomination and continues on like he's been going for a while now, he should have a very good chance of beating Bush. As long as he stays focused and on message. There is a lot of don't like or not sure about Bush attitudes out there and can be exploited if he stays strong in the field

:)

:P

I'm a Clark supporter. I think he'd be a better president. But I've never claimed - or thought - that Dean couldn't beat *. The way I see it, Clark would beat * on contrast, which is a function of who he is vs who * is. It's more attractive to swing voters, and also has the possibility of depressing turnout for *, since a good many of his "supporters" aren't thrilled with him and wouldn't feel "threatened" enough to go to the polls in droves to keep an "evil godlesspinkocommieliberal" from winning. It's also less subject to bad luck - mostly just requiring that Clark not let Bush/Rove (or, more accurately, their media lackys) define him, and he's already shown that he can handle that task. Dean would have to beat * with the political dexterity the author writes about, and, IMHO, that's more subject to luck - * might be able to land a lucky punch, or Dean might slip up somewhere. But bottom line, I DO think he can beat the chimp, as long as * doesn't get too many lucky breaks. OTOH, * has a history of getting "lucky breaks," so I worry a bit.

Come on. This is like clubbing baby seals on a beach, and you don't even get a nice hat out of it.

The voters will decide, rightly or wrongly, and we'll get to work doing the people's work; electing an American President who will represent all Americans, not just those with big bucks.

Stop with this stuff already.

...but I'm starting to think that Dean might be able to do it! I'm waiting for actual votes to be cast before I concede the nomination to anybody, and I'm still a bit concerned by our party's seeming willingness to let the pro-bush media proclaim OUR nominee, but as we go along, I remember the rethuglicans salivating over Bill Clinton in much the same way they are over Dean now. Remember that in early '92, quayle came out and said that perot would be tougher to beat than Clinton!!! We all know (THANK GOD) how accurate that prediction was.

Dean could catch a wave. Many Democrats are still hershey squirting over what kkkarl rove will do, but remember, his candidate STILL LOST THE ELECTION!

2 last points. 1. Does anyone here ever suspect that kkkarl's managing of bush jr. is the political equivalent of a college frat/sorority pig party? 2. Merry Christmas to all my fellow DU'ers. Hopefully next year we'll be celebrating the election of a new President as our early collective Christmas present!

for all of us Dems as the new year begins.