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starts with the possibly shakey presumption of holding the 2000 blue states, let's think about Missouri for a moment.
But let me add one other particular element. The economy is not going to improve remarkably. We outsourced too many of the jobs that should have developed so far, and the market cannot sustain without customers. Even the weak dollar won't help much, because we dont make all that many products the world wants (or can be sold to them). So what it means is that we lose purchasing power and do not gain exports. So my second assumption is that the economy is going to tread water at best, sink like a rock at worst.
Here is a state where the possiblity for the Republican coalition to delaminate is prounounced. The Urban fiscal conservative is unlikely to be very happy with Bush right now. He see Bush as a combination of the worst parts of his own party. So anyone who appeals to security and has an economic plan might be acceptable. Many of these are the guys who want to grow up to be Paul ONeill, they want some process that isn't about politics.
My favorite candidate is not going to resonate strongly with them at first. Except, perhaps some who now are starting to doubt the current incarnation of 'free trade'. These would be manufacturing folks, generally.
The NIMBY Republicans in the outer suburbs seem to be highly free trade and favor the social conservatism. They seem to share interests with the Rural Republicans, and the Urban Republicans.
The Urbanites and SubUrbanites are the most vulerable segments, as teh Rural believers who have hung with the president after what he did to the economy, are invulnerable to rational argument.
You ask both of the remaining groups what they are most concerned about and you will hear the big three, the Economy(jobs, deficit, overtime), the Iraqi occupation/War on Terror, and HealthCare.
Whoever can offer plausible, well communicated solutions to these problems and reduce the deficit (balancing the budget won't happen in the near future again) will score big over the chimpster. Indeed, I suspect that some of them privately suspect that a basic remake of the American Economy might be needed. Those who are employers realize the utterly profound failure of the private healthcare system.
The other thing that is working in Missouri is showing the Bush administration as the corrupt political machine that it is. Iraq, and the silly panicked reaction to his SOTU plunge will go a long way toward keeping a lot of Suburban voters from going to the polls. Precisely becasue they identify as moral, conservative, professionals. Bush's amazing cynicism is not some much a 'hold your nose' factor as a 'wipe it off' one.
The Rural Republicans all know someone in Iraq. They are very torn. They want to hear that the candidate they support is committed in deed, not just word, to improving the lot of those friends and family. Mentioning Bush's record of stripping the rank and file of money and benefits, not to mention actual military equipment like armor cause these folks to hop and swear.
If Bush does not meet withdrawl by June, he could lose these votes with an endorsement from Jesus himself. Also, $3/gallon gas is going to hit these poor folks like a plague of locusts. The news percolating into the public conciousness about the anticipated effects of climate shift on agriculture will have a profound effect on these voters. Look for a greenward shift in these groups. Alternative fuel is going to be a VERY important issue.
The Urban Republicans, aka the business community, are not large, but are influential. They are about fed with the militarists (Unless they work for Boeing, Lake City, SAIC, or some other such concern). The failure of GM foods to meet with international approval requires elements of this group to advocate unilateral, coercive policy. I doubt the willingness of the rest of the community to support such policies in light of our current foreign debacle or policy, if you prefer. I suspect the more lucid of them now worry about the things we have traded for 'free trade', here I think of jobs in particular. Missouri is a hurtin unit, RE jobs.
I think nothing is as important to these voters as the economy. We can run on our record, virtually. Even our most progressive candidate has an economic plan that is lucid and well conceptualized.
I wonder how many of these paleocons are on the verge of a radical change of paradigm, in the light of the American Business Pandemic of Scandal from 2000-2004.
In summation. I agree that Missouri is pivotal, even if I am not at all certain that not contesting the South is wise.
Key elements of the Missouri Republican envirnoment are suseptable to various arguments from the Democratic platform, as expressed by the progressives.
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