Ras poll: Lieberman (D) 61%, Lieberman (I) 44%

Joseph Lieberman (D) 61%
Alan Schlesinger (R) 23%

Joseph Lieberman (I) 44%
Ned Lamont (D) 29%
Alan Schlesinger (R) 15%

The Quinnipiac poll from a few weeks ago had Lieberman 56, Lamont 18, and Schlesinger 8%. Every poll shows Joe going down and Lamont going up. Can Joe still win the primary? Sure. Can he win as an independent? Sure. But IMO, Lieberman's independent run seems to be losing some of it's appeal.

My guess is that democrats like myself (who feel there is a place in the big tent for democrats who are conservative on some issues) are getting pissed off that Joe is contemplating ignoring the will of CT dems and running as an independent. I don't appreciate a politician who puts on the democratic label when it suits his purpose (like when he is running for senate or Vice President of the United States) and gets rid of it when it doesn't. I have spent much time defending Joe as being a legitmate member of this party, and it burns me that he is contemplating taking a giant dump on us, and who we chose in our primary. Something tells me there others out there who feel the same as me. Joe is handling this primary like shit, and I won't be surprised if his support continues to erode.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/June%202006/connecticutsenate06162006.htm

since Lieberman will win the primary anyway. I think he'll keep falling a bit in the polls, but not enough to hand a win to Lamont.

I used to think Lamont had no chance, but everyday I am finding more people who find starting to find Joe irritating. However, if CT dems chose Joe, that's fine by me. Unlike Joe, I support the descision of my fellow democrats.

especially when Lieberman hasn't said anything except that he'll "keep his options open." But the campaign has yet to collect one signature, and it would need 7,500 by Aug. 9.

I just don't think Joe can afford to go independent. Although the polls now say he would still garner the most support, if he ditched the Dems and Lamont won the primary, Lamont would have access to campaign dollars that Lieberman wouldn't. Lieberman would have all of his current insider/sell-out problems, combined with all of the outsider problems of low financing. Unless Lamont actually takes a lead in the polls that is beyond the margin of error, Liberman will stick with the Dems.

I've not heard anything official about where Lieberman would do an independant run. Sometimes I think we just blow stuff out of proportion.

:wow: SIX points? That's the best yet! (as of June 16) I don't think I'd seen that one.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/June%202006/ConnecticutPrimary.htm

Makes the OP irrelevant.

Total junk.

That's why there was no polling at all for the VA primary. Its not precise, but it gives a good idea of what's going on.

Especially since polling for primaries is incredibly hard to do. Also, it said that "very likelY" primary voters were more likely to come out for Lamont which possibly narrows the margin even further. What this poll tells me is that if the election were held today, Lieberman would be a slight favorite but it's far from a sure thing.

many Democrats are going to sour on his candidacy. That in itself might breech the 6-points that some polls show between him and Lamont.

Kinda highlights what people have been saying about him being a really NOT Dem.

:crazy:

Most people at DU are fully behind his primary challenger. Joementum has kissed too much Bush ass to earn any sort of reprieve at the polls.

The declaration by some here at DU that he's not really a Democrat means precisely squat.

Joementum is a Democrat unless he declares otherwise as an independent which will make him an independent.

So, what point are you trying to make?

but I can tell you what I have had disagreements with DUers about. I am for responsible gun ownership, I would love to see the number of abortions reduced by means other than force, I don't care that Clark used to vote for republicans, I think we should get out of Iraq but I don't think it should be done in a day, I'd prefer a income based affirmative action over a race based one, I have no interest in nominating someone who has no chance in the general election, I hope we nominate a non-senator from a flippable red state in 08, I have no problem voting for a dem I agree with 50% of the time as long as he is better than the republican, I pay attention to polls even when they give me results I don't like... there is probably more.

But that isn't why I have defended Joe here in the past. I think that DU is more progressive than your average democrat, and I don't think we should expect every state to elect Feingolds and Boxers. If we "purged" the democratic party of people who weren't as progressive as your average DUer, we'd have a mighty small party. I respect the right of democrats in other states to chose the kind of democrat they want representing them, whether it be a Feingold or Nelson.

I do, however, get hung up a bit on your abortion stance. I want abortions to be safe, legal and rare, but I am unsure about what you mean by "means other than force." I think we are on the same page here but my answer to reducing the number of abortions is: more, not less, access to safe, affordable contraception (including EC)and more, not less, medically accurate sex education for everyone, not just teens.

Rasmussen has shown a tighter race in both the primary and in the general election with a hypothetical three-way race. This poll came out after Quinnipiac's poll as well. The easiest answer would be that there must have been something done in between the time the two polls were conducted to drive Lieberman's numbers down, or Lamont's upwards. Some may even think that the possibility of him running as an Independent might have something to do with it.

First, its important to look at the real dates of the polls, not the days that they were published. The Quinnipiac poll was conducted over a period of three days, finishing on June 6th. Rasmussen's polling usually takes place over one day, and their was taken on June 12th. What does that tell us? Well, first, it tells us that Joe's possible Independent bid has nothing to do with this, because that news came out after both Rasmussen and Quinnipiac conducted their polls.

Second, we can look at the polling on the Democratic primary by each pollster. Quinnipiac, over the course of three days, polled on both the general election and the primary, and reported the results together. Rasmussen did their primary polling seperately. They conducted their general election polling on the 12th, and their primary polling on June 5th. That, in fact, is one day before Quinnipiac's poll, so using common logic, Lieberman's numbers would have actually increased from June 5th (46% to 40%) to June 6th (55% to 40%). This is equally unlikely.

The discrepancy is in the way that the polls are conducted. Each pollster uses a different method, asks different questions, targets "likely voters" or "registered voters", and has different standards for likely voters, and so forth. Sometimes, one method will be more accurate than another, and other times, a different method will be more accurate.

So does this mean that Joe has a 6 point lead, a 15 point lead, or 10.5 point lead (if we take the average)? The answer is "who knows"? Polling is not an exact science; its a forecasting, a prediction. But discrepancies between two polls done within a short period of time of each other is 99% the product of different polling methods, and very rarely anything that happened in between.

Why would he not win? If he had to run as Independent, he still has the name ID and the base to sustain the seat.

I have no use for someone who is not committed to the Democratic Party. I too have defended Lieberman as a useful member of the Party, and though I am dismayed at his excessive bootlicking of Bush, I have always thought him to be a man of his word. I have heard him say on a number of ocassions of his commitment to the Party. If he goes indy he loses whatever respect I had for him.

since he is in their back pocket. I hope Lamont's popularity soars.

they jumped before thinking through what they were about to say, I mean 'threatening' to leave the party and run as an independent. Why didn't Joe just go to a supermarket and kick a democratic voter in the face and what was with that incredibly stupid bear ad