NJ Senate: Menendez 43%, Kean 37%

1. If the election for United States Senator was held today, whom would you support Robert Menendez, the Democrat or Tom Kean, Jr., the Republican?
Robert Menendez 43%
Tom Kean, Jr. 37%
Undecided 20%

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/newjersey_poll_071206.htm

Not good for an incumbent to be so far under 50%. Given that Menendez was recently appointed, this may not be as big a problem. However, I am fearful of the backlash on Menendez from the NJ govt shutdown.

perhaps even more so then Menendez.
NJ has been strongly democratic and Corzine hasn't fared as badly
as I thought as a result of the shutdown and new taxes.

On Tradesports. Back to roughly 57-60%. I still don't understand that blitz move down to 50/50 on Monday.

Staggering amount of people who don't have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of either candidate. So that's behind the 20% undecided overall.

There's that huge number again, 77% expecting a homeland terrorist attack within six months. Obviously that's geography influenced because the high number is 82% in New York and now this 77% in neighboring New Jersey. The Strategic Vision polls in other state have it generally in the 71-74% range.

I'd feel 50 times better about our senate chances if I hadn't seen that fear-based consensus. Normally I can predict well but if someone had asked me the public percentage in a question like that, I would have guessed well below 50/50. It SHOULD be far below 50%, by any application of probability or logic. But since it's 70+% and with only maybe 10% saying flat no, national security concerns are front and center again in federal races this fall. I'm worried how that impacts the vote of the so-called security moms, who I was counting on to return to our camp.

hold onto this seat.

Give 'em hell, New Jersey Democrats.