20 House districts most likely to change parties in November

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza

....These are the House races most likely to change party control in the November election. The No. 1 race is the one that's most in danger of flipping....

***

4. Ohio's 18th District: After dropping this race two slots in last month's Line, we move it right back this time around. Why? Attorney Zach Space's (D) campaign released a poll that showed him leading Ney by a 46 percent to 35 percent margin. Ney struck back with a survey of his own that showed him leading Space 45 percent to 41 percent. If a poll showing him well under 50 percent and ahead by a statistically insignificant margin is the best Ney can do, he must be in deeper trouble than we previously suspected. Not to mention that the departure of three staffers from his congressional office has sparked talk - again - that he is on the verge of being indicted in connection with the Jack Abramoff federal investigation. (Previous ranking: 6)

3. Arizona's 8th District: There is a clear difference between the top two races on the Line and this one. The 8th went for President Bush by seven points in 2004 and no Democrat has represented the area since 1984. But,it is an open seat and, given the recent record of incumbents winning reelection, we simply can't vault any current member of Congress over this seat. Former state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords looks stronger and stronger in her primary race, methodically lining up establishment support, including Emily's List and the American Federation of State County and Municipal Employees. Former state Rep. Randy Graf remains the most likely Republican nominee, but state Rep. Mike Huffman has the endorsement of Rep. Jim Kolbe (the current holder of the seat) and a huge cash advantage over Graf -- $413,000 to $51,000 at the end of June. (Previous ranking: 3)

2. Colorado's 7th District: Statewide polling continues to show Colorado as tough territory for Republicans this fall -- a trend that should spur Democrats to a pick-up of this suburban Denver seat. Former state Sen. Ed Perlmutter remains the favorite in the Aug. 8 primary, but former state Rep. Peggy Lamm has made the race surprisingly competitive. Assuming Perlmutter brings his financial advantage -- $515,000 on hand at the end of June compared with Lamm's $255,000 -- he should win. Former Higher Education Commissioner Rick O'Donnell (R) waits in the wings, but he may just have picked the wrong year to run for Congress in Colorado. (Previous ranking: 2)

1. Iowa's 1st District: This race has drawn considerable national attention in recent weeks. Businessman Mike Whalen (R) hosted Vice President Dick Cheney and Arizona Sen. John McCain for fundraisers. Bruce Braley was one of a handful of Democrats to condemn a Web ad that featured images of flag-draped caskets that was created by the DCCC. Both national parties will spend heavily in this eastern Iowa district, but all things being equal the seat's Democratic lean should make this a Democratic takeover. (Previous ranking: 1)

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2006/07/the_friday_line_dems_firm_up_h.html#more