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Nimrod2005 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-08-06 03:36 PM
Original message
Poll question: Your CT election prediction here please
What will the margin be?
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ChavezSpeakstheTruth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-08-06 03:36 PM
Response to Original message
1. Ned squeeks by
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Nimrod2005 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-08-06 03:38 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. We would not like that, need a real margin to make sure
Ned is a winner going into the GE
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ChavezSpeakstheTruth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-08-06 03:39 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. That's just my prediction not my hope
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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-08-06 03:38 PM
Response to Original message
3. Ned with 54%, Joe with 45%, 1% strewn anywhichway.
Edited on Tue Aug-08-06 03:40 PM by Old Crusoe
And 99% of the media having an odd time sorting it all out.
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Nimrod2005 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-08-06 03:40 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. I was going to say Ned gets 56%
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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-08-06 03:47 PM
Response to Reply #6
17. I hope your result happens and not mine.
A wider Lamont victory margin would put more pressure on Lieberman to honor the winner of the primary and step aside.

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TechBear_Seattle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-08-06 03:39 PM
Response to Original message
4. Very poorly designed poll
I would go with Lamont by 6-9, AND Hannity attacks Lamont on the H&C show AND Joe's head explodes tonight. :hi:
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Nimrod2005 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-08-06 03:41 PM
Response to Reply #4
8. I love DU
:rofl:
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ps1074 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-08-06 03:40 PM
Response to Original message
7. 50-50
Lamont by a hundred or so votes...
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Nimrod2005 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-08-06 03:41 PM
Response to Reply #7
10. OMG, please no....We don't want recounts...etc.
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liberalhistorian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-08-06 03:52 PM
Response to Reply #7
19. And look for that traitorous
fuck Holy Joe to pitch a hissy fit and stamp his foot and contest the results until the cows come home, instead of the wimpy-ass caving in to the repukes after the 2000 selection.
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bigwillq Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-08-06 03:41 PM
Response to Original message
9. Ned in a squeaker is my gut
reaction. It's going to be close.
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ChavezSpeakstheTruth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-08-06 03:43 PM
Response to Reply #9
12. I hear they had signs in Westville saying "Westville Jews for Lamont"
That rocks!
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bigwillq Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-08-06 03:46 PM
Response to Reply #12
16. Shit. I didn't see those signs!
That is great! :bounce:
I briefly go by Westville to get home but haven't really drove around down there in awhile.
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LA lady Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-08-06 03:41 PM
Response to Original message
11. None of the above exactly
I think it's Lamont in the primary but Lieberman in November due to crossovers.
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endarkenment Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-08-06 03:44 PM
Response to Original message
13. I smell victory big time.
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Eurobabe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-08-06 03:45 PM
Response to Original message
14. Other, * flies to CT to give Joe a wet sloppy, goodbye kiss
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Hoosier Dem Donating Member (346 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-08-06 03:50 PM
Response to Reply #14
18. Maybe he'll slip him the tounge this time
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snowbear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-08-06 03:46 PM
Response to Original message
15. Uh oh.. Problems at a poll already?
http://www.wtnh.com/Global/story.asp?S=5252387



Hopefully they've fixed whatever problems they had..

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longship Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-08-06 03:52 PM
Response to Original message
20. High turnout == Lamont blow out -- My prediction 56/43
Edited on Tue Aug-08-06 03:53 PM by longship
Incumbency advantage is usually increased by voter turnout, but not when the electorate are pissed which is clearly true this election season. In my work on GOTV, I've always found that it works best under normal, stable political conditions, when there are no global issues to skew things. A good example when this was not true was in 1994 which had the House banking scandal and the Gingrich Contract on America. GOTV worked against the incumbent that year, especially if he/she was named in the scandal.

This year is like 1994, only more so. People are very, very pissed. A high turnout in CT--let's get this straight right now, 54% is a *huge* turnout--is going to advantage Ned Lamont.

I predict Lamont with over 50% of the vote. My guess is that it will be over a 10% win by Lamont. I'm going to SWAG it at: Lamont 56%/Lieberman 43%, a 13 point margin.

I will further predict that Lieberman will bow out of the race entirely before the end of the week. He's going to receive extreme pressure from people like the Clintons, Dodd, Lautenberg, Bayh, and other prominent Dems to do so. They're basically going to ask him to put the party above his personal aspirations.
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wakeme2008 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-08-06 04:10 PM
Response to Original message
21. 6-9 points I have to be Conservative sometime
:rofl:
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SteppingRazor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-08-06 04:27 PM
Response to Original message
22. I predicted Lamont by 6-10 at my blog:
http://blogs.southflorida.com/citylink_dansweeney/2006/08/the_eyes_of_the_political_junk.html

In which I also expressed support for Oliver North's 1994 Senate run :evilgrin:
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MercutioATC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-08-06 07:01 PM
Response to Original message
23. Lamont by 4.
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MercutioATC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-09-06 07:12 AM
Response to Reply #23
25. Did I call it, or what?
:party:
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Lasher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-09-06 09:16 AM
Response to Reply #25
26. U da MAN!!!
Righ on the money! I want to be just like you when I grow up.
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MercutioATC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-09-06 12:24 PM
Response to Reply #26
29. Sorry, couldn't resist patting myself on the back...
...especially after the early returns.

:)
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nolabels Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-09-06 10:14 AM
Response to Reply #25
28. I am proud that the brave democratic electorate of Connuniticut...........
brushed aside a full court press from Korporate Kool-Aid America and a encrusted Democratic oligarch, hooray for the grass roots and here is to pressing on to new vistas :toast:
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MercutioATC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-09-06 12:25 PM
Response to Reply #28
30. As am I!
:toast:

...back at ya!
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MrBenchley Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-08-06 07:11 PM
Response to Original message
24. I predict it's going to be pretty fucking funny
listening to the Lamont whoopsters who have been spitting on the principle of party loyalty for months suddenly turn around to expalin why it is a sacred duty....assuming the Unknown Millionaire doesn't tank.
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martymar64 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-09-06 09:31 AM
Response to Reply #24
27. Sour Grapes
Poor MrB.
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