NYT: GOP abandons DeWine in Ohio to focus on Mo., Tenn., Va. Senate races

In Final Weeks, G.O.P. Focuses on Best Bets
By ADAM NAGOURNEY
Published: October 16, 2006

WASHINGTON, Oct. 15 — Senior Republican leaders have concluded that Senator Mike DeWine of Ohio, a pivotal state in this year’s fierce midterm election battles, is likely to be heading for defeat and are moving to reduce financial support for his race and divert party money to other embattled Republican senators, party officials said.

The decision to effectively write off Mr. DeWine’s seat, after a series of internal Republican polls showed him falling behind his Democratic challenger, is part of a fluid series of choices by top leaders in both parties as they set the strategic framework of the campaign’s final three weeks, signaling, by where they are spending television money and other resources, the Senate and House races where they believe they have the best chances of success.

Republicans are now pinning their hopes of holding the Senate on three states — Missouri, Tennessee and, with Ohio off the table, probably Virginia — while trying to hold on to the House by pouring money into districts where Republicans have a strong historical or registration advantage, party officials said Sunday. Republicans also said they would run advertisements in New Jersey this week to test the vulnerability of Senator Robert Menendez, one of the few Democrats who appear endangered.

Senior national Republican strategists who had been briefed on decisions made during the party’s internal deliberations discussed the overall strategic thrusts but declined to provide specific dollar figures, saying that would give too much information to the Democrats.

The decision involving Mr. DeWine offers the most compelling evidence so far that Republicans are circling their wagons around a smaller group of races, effectively conceding some Senate and House seats with the goal of retaining at least a thin margin of control when the 110th Congress is seated next January. Democrats need to win 6 seats to capture the Senate and 15 seats to win the House on Nov. 7....

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/16/us/politics/16spend.html?hp&ex=1160971200&en=5390ada8b9c8d8f7&ei=5094&partner=homepage

I never expected them to abandon DeWine

Brown has run a great race but the partisan breakdown and voting pattern of Ohio should make this a close finish. All along I've been convinced Brown wouldn't win this by more than 2 or 3 points but I'll be thrilled to be wrong.

Gore pulled out of Ohio early due to bad internal polling. It would almost serve the GOP right to make the same mistake.

That explains why they are running ads for Space, who is running for Bob Ney's seat in central Ohio, way south of my market, the Cleveland area...

Cleveland serves at least three of the counties in the 18th; Tuscarawas, Carroll and Holmes. Parts of Harrison and Guernsey are also served by the Cleveland market. We're closer than you think. The 18th is such a huge district that we have to advertise in Cleveland, Columbus, Steubenville/Wheeling and Portsmouth. It makes for expensive ad buys.

It's getting really, really old. If the fix was in the whole time, why would they ever have devoted money in Ohio in the first place?

The key to overcoming "the fix" is to have massive turnout among Democratic voters. They can't steal an election unless it is almost 50/50 to begin with. We need to put the elections out of reach.

when most of us are savoring victory, I imagine some DUers will be wringing their hands, insisting that the massive Democratic victory is part of a nefarious plot to lull us into complacency so they can take everything away from us in 2008.

They had to spend enough money in Ohio to ensure that it's close enough to steal. Dewine is stabilized enough to stay in the fortieth percentile, which is close enough for that state, just as it was close enough for Saxby Chambliss in Georgia in '02. Since things are going to hell elsewhere, they need to direct funds to states in which the electoral process is not totally compromised in the GOP's favor.

That's not to say they aren't busy pulling the rug out from under us in those other firewall states. Sproul & Associates is busy at work in Tennessee, and already a dozen phony registrations have been found there.

In Missouri, GOP hit-man Jim Kouri is already setting the stage for a Rovian table-turning, alleging fradulent voter registration on the part of Democrats. Attack your enemy's strength is the Rove mantra, and here's a fine example of it.

An optimist doesn't sit back and cackle as the polls indicate that the most criminal government in our nation's history is in danger of being toppled by a fair election. That's a sucker's bet, and we would be wise to remember it.

This great news!

Ohio going blue! :bounce:

He said that is one of the reasons for the 50 State Strategy...to keep the GOP from building up such huge stashes of money.

They are having to pull out of races, which they are not used to doing.

But then, they weren't facing the Perfect Sh*tstorm for their grand ol' party of pedophiles.

They may have given up on OH, but the ones they REALLY don't want to lose are MO and TN. Tennessee, especially, because it's THE SOUTH - a Dem win there would be a real body blow to the GOP.

Ohio used to have Dems in the Senate (John Glenn?). Tennessee hasn't elected a Dem to the Senate in DECADES. The GOPers are terrified.

Bake

where the GOP intends to pour their resources, setting up the claim that that "worked."

Especially at the grassroots level.

Face it. The government doesn't listen to the Democrats. The Democrats do not listen to anyone left of the DLC. The left of the party doesn't listen to the grassroots. If you are a left-leaning activist these days, you have every right to be paranoid that the system is rigged against you. It is. I will not deride another for stating the obvious.

Nor will I accuse everyone else of whistling past the graveyard. Optimism AND worry exist on our side, as it should be. What kind of idiot would approach an adversarial situation with only one philosophy? A repuke idiot...that's who. We have the advantage of heterogeny.

DeWine getting the heave-ho from RNC funds is a marked victory for the Sherrod Brown campaign, but make no mistake, DeWine has more money that Brown does all on his own. The pukes know that they can cut DeWine loose and still have a good shot.

But I do not think they have a REAL shot...their campaign ads suck, quite frankly, and are more of the same pablum we have been hearing for 15 years from the pukes. Strickland's ads not only put DeWine in a bad light, but also intelligently address the same issues raised in DeWine's ads...and they always seem to run back-to-back for immediate comparison. There are Strickland and Brown signs all over town (Columbus), and the Blackwell/DeWine supporters only can show their faces in rich, rural counties (not the poor ones). Brown and Strickland are going to win by all accounts, and too many in Ohio are insterested in election and change to accept a verdict otherwise.

We should take Ohio