Barron's front page saying the gop will retain control

http://www.rawstory.com/news/2006/Barrons_editor_predicts_GOP_will_retain_1023.html

I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that a news letter by Ken Fisher also predicted the same thing

Also, in the last couple of weeks bush and others in his administration have also been predicting victory

I believe something afoot is going on. The republican machinery is trying to demoralize those that would vote Democrat, in believing that it doesn't matter if they vote because they would lose anyway

When I posted Fisher's comments a couple of weeks, I also observed that gas prices had dropped significantly, and the stock market was taking off significantly in a year where it is uncertain if the republicans will retain control of Congress. That is unusual, since the market does NOT like uncertainty, and the sudden drop in gasoline prices based on what they are calling "less demand", and less global tension. Really?

I also believe that Barron's front page prediction, is pushing the market up today

The real question, is the economy doing as well as the market would like us to believe?

Nothing can or should be taken for granted. The most important thing that can be done is to insure we vote in numbers. After six years very little has been done about the voting machines, and the only tool we have left is to vote in large numbers.

One thing I have observed, many of the predictions in Barrons can cause the market to react short term, but in the course of time many of their predictions fail to prove out.

For six plus years we have had no accountability. For nothing else, that should be reason enough to elect a Democratic Congress

I expect they don't think they are going to lose?

Not the one's I deal with here in DC, including staffers for GOP leadership. They are scared shitless and assuming that the Democrats will capture at least the House.

I happen to know Jim McTague, the Barron's editor who wrote this article. We worked at the same newspaper in New Jersey in the 1970s, and we both ended up in Gaithersburg, Maryland. We bump into one another from time to time and chat. I always knew he was a die-hard Repuglican, although tempered with a tiny bit of journalistic common sense.

Jim may honestly think his numbers on campaign donations are telling him the way the election will go, but he is failing to consider the human element of widespread disgust with the war, GOP corruption and sex scandals, job losses, and many other issues.

Those numbers could be skewed this year because the rich are so damned much richer than they were 5 years ago, while everybody else is hurting financially. We usually donate, but with me unemployed, we barely have money for groceries this year. If I had it, I'd be donating like mad!

I agree with you, this election is more than about campaign donations, even more than Democrat or Republican, it is widespread lack of accountability, without checks and balances

That is why I think conventional thinking will not bring the Republicans victory in November, at least for the house

I hope you economic situation improves

If we get another Democrat in the White House I'm sure the economy will be great in a few years.

explaining why the democrats polled so well nationally yet did so poorly in individual races.

I am one of those cynics who believes that turnout will have no effect on the results. This one is in the can for the GOP, they just have to explain it briefly before the media goes on to other news. The talking points are getting rolled out just before the election so they can be loudly affirmed on election eve and the following day. By the time challenges can be mounted, the country will have moved on to the next issue, possibly a November Surprise timed to distract the country from the questionable election.

I will say it is more pretty conspiracy theory oriented to discuss fuel dropping in price. Gas always goes down after Labor Day and with basically no hurricanes (and none in sight) it has tremendously helped.

I'm not saying that the corporate giants don't price fix, but it does typically drop.

As for Barons, you will of course have publications predicting things both ways. It is a gamble. Rove, Shrub et al. have to be optimistic because they cannot parade out and say the opposite.

when fundamentally very little has changed

they're offering more cheerleading than sober analysis this time.

I agree that something could be afoot that would upset the applecart, but even conservative columnists are acknowledging the depth and breadth of the Democratic tide, especially for the House races.

which are indicating that Democrats should gain 16 to 30 seats in the house

admit that it's a far more favorable field for Democrats than for Republicans.

more than predicting a repub loss. Beyond that, its meaningless

They're going for it. They DON'T CARE IF IT IS OBVIOUS. What are we gonna do about it? We've given them all the laws they need to steal elections with impugnity, and simply arrest us if we speak up. What the fuck did we expect?

BLUE CRUSH - New NBY 'Toon

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But look at the flawed methodology they had to use to GET that result

http://mediamatters.org/items/200610220004