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New MD 10/24 polling for Senate. TN,VA,PA,NJ,OH,MT,MO,WA,RI

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cnlst8 Donating Member (195 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-24-06 08:39 AM
Original message
New MD 10/24 polling for Senate. TN,VA,PA,NJ,OH,MT,MO,WA,RI
Edited on Tue Oct-24-06 09:06 AM by cnlst8
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15390260/
Senate
TN Corker 45-43 MD http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15389854/
VA Allen 47-43 MD http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15389773/
PA Casey 51-39 MD http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15389784/
NJ Menendez 45-42 MD http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15389787/
OH Brown 48-40 MD http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15389844/
MT Tester 46-43 MD http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15389808/
MO McCaskill 46-43 MD http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15389796/
WA Cantwell 52-37 MD http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15389667/
RI Whitehouse 48-43 MD http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15389776/

McCaskill race is looking more positive than ever, but TN, VA, and even MT (slightly) are worrisome to me. Ford unfavorable rating is about 10% higher than Corkers, and Burns favorable rating has jumped up somehow. Webb also seem stuck at 43% for awhile and still needs help forming an identity to votes.
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cyclezealot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-24-06 08:52 AM
Response to Original message
1. What about Vermont.
Bernie Sanders being in the Senate. That will really make me proud. A Democrat we can rely upon. Having to adhere by the senate rules giving so much play to the opinions of the likes of Tom Coburn. I am surprised Sanders would want to be in the Senate. In the House you can be somewhat more honest with such thugs. Bernie. Make us proud. How are Sanders' polls. I should be ashamed, I have not contributed to Sanders' cause.
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cnlst8 Donating Member (195 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-24-06 09:05 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. Sanders gonna will easily. No worries there.
Here's a link conducted in VT Senate race.
http://www.pollster.com/polls/?state=VT&race=senate_race

Although it labels Sanders as a (D) instead of an (I), Sanders has the majority of Dem. support and will vote for with the Dem. caucus as senator.
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rox63 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-24-06 09:05 AM
Response to Reply #1
4. Maybe I'm just being nit-picky here...
But Sanders is an Independent, not a Democrat. He caucuses with the Democrats, but is generally more liberal than a lot of Dems. I like him just fine though. I'm looking forward to his strong progressive voice joining the Senate. :)
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cyclezealot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-24-06 10:28 AM
Response to Reply #4
14. Bernie will help keep the Democrats, Democratic.
A vitally needed voice to offset all the repugs and demo sellouts like Liebermann. Bernie, give us a little truth. The repugs better keep at their sides more tums.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-24-06 09:49 AM
Response to Reply #1
7. Bernie is whupping the tar out of
richie rich. And that with all the money rr has poured into his campaign. Bernie will winn with over a 25 point margin.
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blue neen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-24-06 08:52 AM
Response to Original message
2. Come on Tennessee and Virginia.
We need all of these states!
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Clark2008 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-24-06 09:50 AM
Response to Reply #2
8. That's really not in keeping with the other polls out of TN.
Edited on Tue Oct-24-06 09:52 AM by Clark2008
Most polls still show it neck and neck, but with Ford ahead.

Of course, either way, it's within the margin of error.

Also, Ford's negatives probably were higher when this poll was taken because of a juvenile ad against him run by the RNC. That ad had garnered national attention, now, and proven to be a bunch of crap. Also, Ford is now dumping his advertising budget. I used to see three Corker ads for every one Ford add, but that's been changing since this past weekend.
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TheVirginian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-24-06 10:01 AM
Response to Reply #8
10. Three polls in the last two weeks:
Oct. 19th: Corker 45%, Ford 43% (Mason Dixon)
Oct. 10th: Ford 48%, Corker 46% (Rasmussen)
Oct. 9th: Corker 48%, Ford 46% (Survey USA)
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ps1074 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-24-06 09:05 AM
Response to Original message
5. if these polls were a couple of days before V day
I'd go and say dems will win them all. The undeciders will break heavily to the democrats in all the races.
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TheVirginian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-24-06 09:44 AM
Response to Reply #5
6. I don't see undecideds breaking for Dems in TN, VA, MO, or MT
These are red states where there's a lot of discontent for the Republican Party, but not enough to make them vote for the Democrats. While some of these people will stay home, some of them will turn out to the polls and cast their vote for the Republican, though when a pollster calls them at home, they say they're undecided.

Undecideds will undoubtedly break for the Dems in NJ, PA, and OH.
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SharonAnn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-24-06 10:32 AM
Response to Reply #5
15. Early Voting started in TN last week and runs through Nov 2nd.
The election will probably be won or lost by November 7th.

GOTV efforts focus on getting out the vote in Early Voting.

In our county we've had 2,700 voters already, about 60% more than four years ago at this time.

Our phone bank efforts show there are some Dems voting for our Dem Governor and Dem state legislative candidate but not Ford and won't say why. Hmmm, color?

Oh well, we keep trucking on and we're making good progress. Hope it's enough to elect Ford.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-24-06 09:53 AM
Response to Original message
9. My predictions are the same as they were
a month ago. We'll take the House but not the Senate. Allen will hold, Corker wins as does Talent. Dems hold NJ, take RI, PA, OH and MT. MO is a toss up.
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TheVirginian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-24-06 10:02 AM
Response to Reply #9
11. "Talent wins... MO is a toss up"
Don't mean to nitpick.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-24-06 10:20 AM
Response to Reply #11
13. LOL
that ain't nitpicking. I need more coffee- or something.
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Clark2008 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-24-06 10:05 AM
Response to Reply #9
12. If Corker wins, it's because of the rural vote.
Edited on Tue Oct-24-06 10:07 AM by Clark2008
Or our Hart Interactive black box machines.

I live in East Tennessee - a very Republican stronghold - but I live in the largest city in East Tennessee, Knoxville (not a rural area). I see about three times as many Ford signs in yards and on cars than I do Corker signs. In fact, in my neighborhood, there's two yards with Corker signs and the rest are at the Pilot gas stations (because the man who owns Pilot is Corker's finance chair). In other words, there are more REAL people with Ford signs in their yard than Corker signs. The Corker signs are all at the Pilot - a business - and in grassy city/state rights-of-way.

If you go by the unofficial yard sign tally, I'm saying that Ford will pull enough votes out of East Tennessee to win. The way Bredesen won the governor's race is that he carried West and Middle Tennessee and pulled enough out of East Tennessee to carry the entire state. I'm hoping that's what Ford is attempting to do.

Bredesen, who is VERY popular here, is now putting out ads for Ford, which will help him. Many "undecides" remember what hell this state went through, financially, under the Republican governor, so they may actually break Dem this time as they did for Bredesen in 2002.
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SharonAnn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-24-06 10:36 AM
Response to Reply #12
16. I agree, I'm near Knoxville and the dynamics are interesting.
Bredesen is very popular, even among some Republicans. I'm glad he's supporting Ford, that could make the difference for Ford in this part of the state.

Unfortunately, racism is also still here and that has some effect, even among Democrats. I'd like to think it isn't so, but it's showing up among a few voters in our phone bank work. So, for every one who says something, you know there are many more who feel it but won't talk about it.
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cnlst8 Donating Member (195 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-24-06 12:45 PM
Response to Original message
17. Rasmussen poll on TN today.
TN Corker 49- Ford 47 Ras
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