GALLUP: Dems' lead shrinking, but still strong (51 / 44 - nearly identical to 1994!)

Polls: Dems' lead shrinking, but still strong
Posted 11/5/2006 8:54 PM ET
By Susan Page, USA TODAY

WASHINGTON — A national USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds remarkable parallels between the congressional elections Tuesday and the watershed elections in 1994 that swept Republicans into control of the House and Senate.
•Then, likely voters by 51%-44% favored Republican congressional candidates. Now, voters by 51%-44% favor Democratic ones.

•Then, 52% said they were paying "quite a lot" of attention to the elections, the highest since the Gallup Poll began asking the question in 1958. Now, 50% say they are paying "quite a lot" of attention, the second-highest.

•Then, disapproval of Congress was at 66%. Now, disapproval of Congress is at 70%.

"Based on history, a 7-point lead among likely voters still suggest Democrats will take enough votes to win a majority of seats in the House," says Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of the Gallup Poll. What gives some analysts pause, however, is the sophisticated redistricting over the past decade that has made most congressional districts less competitive.

What's more, President Bush's last-ditch push for votes and Sen. John Kerry's comments that seemed to denigrate the education level of U.S. forces in Iraq have helped energize GOP voters. A Democratic advantage of 23 percentage points a month ago and 13 points two weeks ago is now down to 7.

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http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-11-05-national-poll_x.htm

They were a little too optimistic in 1998 for the Dems, but generally right.

we'll be lucky to pick up enogh seats to take the house.

Man sometimes this country really, really sucks.

NOT the "feeling" around the country in general, that is innaccurate

The only way we will lose the house is if people do not vote, or they fix the election:

http://www.pollster.com/house.php

1994:

Rep: 51.5%
Dem: 44.7%

Net Gain: R +54

1996:

Rep: 47.8%
Dem: 48.1%

Net Gain: D +8

1998:

Rep: 48.0%
Dem: 47.1%

Net Gain: D +5

2000:

Rep: 47.3%
Dem: 47.0%

Net Gain: D +1

2002:

Rep: 49.6%
Dem: 45.0%

Net Gain: R +8

2004:

Rep: 49.2%
Dem: 46.6%

Net Gain: R +3

We've only won the popular vote in the House once in the last twelve years. Yet we've picked up seats in half of the six elections held.

Imagine what a seven point advantage could equal.

and Time polls - note all three polls having Dems over the 50% mark. Footnote, I believe it was Pew that had Bush tied with Kerry in NJ 4 days before the election. - Kerry won NJ by 7.