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Don't lose any sleep if your '08 pick isn't a frontrunner !!

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snowbear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-08-06 06:50 PM
Original message
Don't lose any sleep if your '08 pick isn't a frontrunner !!
In the last presidential election, we were ALL OVER THE PLACE!

Who remembers that at one time Lieberman was leader of the pack!? ...


Assorted Polls May 03 through February 04

May 21-22, 2003

Time/CNN Poll conducted by Harris Interactive. N=368 registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic nationwide.

"As you may know, Al Gore has said he will not run for president in 2004. Now suppose Al Gore changes his mind and runs for the Democratic nomination for president -- who would you vote for? . . ."

Al Gore 40 %
Joseph Lieberman 7 %
Dick Gephardt 7 %
John Kerry 7 %
John Edwards 5 %
Al Sharpton 4 %
Bob Graham 4 %
Howard Dean 3 %
Dennis Kucinich 2 %
Carol Moseley Braun 1 %
Other 1 %
Not sure 19 %


July 9-10, 2003

"ABC News/Washington Post Poll. N=443 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. MoE ± 4.5. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch.
.
"If the 2004 Democratic presidential primary in your state were being held today, and the candidates were , for whom would you vote?"

Joseph Lieberman 13 %
John Kerry 12 %
Richard Gephardt %
Howard Dean 8 %
John Edwards 6 %
Al Sharpton 6 %
Carol Moseley Braun 4 %
Bob Graham 3 %
Dennis Kucinich 2 %
Other (vol.) 2 %
None (vol.) 13 %
Wouldn't vote (vol.) 7 %
No opinion 16 %


I swear, I don't remember Lieberman being in the lead..

Sept. 8-10, 2003

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. N=407 Democrats and Democratic leaners nationwide who are registered to vote. MoE ± 5.

"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in the year 2004. . . ."

Joe Lieberman 18 %
Dick Gephardt 15 %
Howard Dean 15 %
John Kerry 12 %
Bob Graham 5 %
John Edwards 5 %
Carol Moseley Braun 5 %
Al Sharpton 4 %
Dennis Kucinich 2 %
Other 4 %
No one 5 %
No opinion 10 %


Sept. 28-Oct. 1, 2003

CBS News/New York Times Poll. N=353 Democratic primary voters nationwide. MoE ± 5 (total sample).
.
(A) "Who would you like to see the Democratic party nominate as its presidential candidate in 2004: Howard Dean, John Edwards, Richard Gephardt, Bob Graham, John Kerry, Dennis Kucinich, Joe Lieberman, Carol Moseley Braun, Al Sharpton, or someone else?" Names rotated. Half-sample (Form A)

(B) "Who would you like to see the Democratic Party nominate as its presidential candidate in 2004: General Wesley Clark, Dr. Howard Dean, Senator John Edwards, Congressman Richard Gephardt, Senator Bob Graham, Senator John Kerry, Congressman Dennis Kucinich, Senator Joe Lieberman, former Senator Carol Moseley Braun, Reverend Al Sharpton, or someone else?" Names rotated. Half-sample (Form B).

(A)Names Alone (B) Names & Titles

Wesley Clark 14 / 10 Combined Results = 12
Richard Gephardt 5 / 15 Combined Results =10
Howard Dean 9 / 9 Combined Results =9
Joe Lieberman 5 / 13 Combined Results = 9
John Kerry 4 / 11 Combined Results = 8
Carol Moseley Braun 7 / 1 Combined Results = 4
Al Sharpton 3 / 4 Combined Results = 3
Bob Graham 3 / 3 Combined Results = 3
John Edwards 1 / 3 Combined Results = 2
Dennis Kucinich 1 / 1 Combined Results = 1
Other (vol.) 27 / 10 Combined Results = 18
Don't know 21 / 20 Combined Results = 21


Nov. 3-5, 2003

Zogby America Poll. N=558 likely Democratic voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.2.
.
". . . If the Democratic primary for president were held today and the candidates were , for whom would you vote?"

Howard Dean 15 %
Wesley Clark 10 %
Dick Gephardt 9 %
Joe Lieberman 9 %
John Kerry 7 %
Al Sharpton 4 %
John Edwards 3 %
Dennis Kucinich 2 %
Carol Moseley Braun 2 %
Other 6 %
Not sure 34 %
Bob Graham n/a


Nov. 18-20 & Dec. 1-3, 2003

Associated Press poll conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. . N=539 likely Democratic presidential primary/caucus voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.3.

"It is early, but if you had to choose today, which ONE of the following nine candidates would you be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president? . . ."

Howard Dean 18 %
Wesley Clark 14 %
Richard Gephardt 14 %
John Kerry 13 %
Joe Lieberman 10 %
John Edwards 6 %
Al Sharpton 4 %
Carol Moseley Braun 4 %
Dennis Kucinich 2 %
Other/None/Not sure 15 %


Jan. 6-11, 2004

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. N=415 likely Democratic primary/caucus voters nationwide. MoE ± 5:
.
"I am going to read you the names of some possible candidates for the Democratic nomination for president in 2004. After I read all the names, please tell me which one you would most like to see nominated as the Democratic Party's candidate for president. . . ." Names rotated. If "None" or "Don’t know": "Well as of today, to whom do you most lean?"

Howard Dean 26 %
Wesley Clark 14 %
Joe Lieberman 13 %
Richard Gephardt 9 %
John Kerry 8 %
Al Sharpton 5 %
John Edwards 4 %
Carol Moseley Braun 3 %
Dennis Kucinich 1 %
Other (vol.) 1 %
Don't know/No answer 16 %


(NOTE: Iowa primary was held on January 19, 2004)

Feb. 5-6, 2004

Time/CNN Poll conducted by Harris Interactive. N=377 registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic nationwide. MoE ± 5.

"Thinking ahead to the 2004 presidential election, if you were asked to vote for a Democratic presidential nominee for president today, which of the following Democrats would you vote for? . . ."

John Kerry 43 %
John Edwards 18 %
Wesley Clark 11 %
Howard Dean 8 %
Al Sharpton 6 %
Dennis Kucinich 5 %
Other 1 %
Not sure 8 %
Joseph Lieberman n/a
Dick Gephardt n/a
Carol Moseley Braun n/a


Feb. 24-27, 2004

CBS News Poll. . N=546 likely Democratic primary voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.

"Who would you like to see the Democratic Party nominate as its presidential candidate in 2004: , or someone else?"

Kerry 57 %

Edwards 18 %

Sharpton 4 %

Kucinich 1 %

Other (vol.) 8 %

Don't know 12 %

Dean n/a


http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

The morale of this story is.. if your 2008 pick isn't on the radar screen.. GIVE IT TIME!!!










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zulchzulu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-08-06 06:52 PM
Response to Original message
1. If you're labeled the Frontrunner, you may as well paint a target on your forehead
It's way too early to have that "distinction"...
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David Dunham Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-08-06 06:53 PM
Response to Original message
2. Unlike 2004's no-star Dems, Hillary (and Bill) are huge stars and will win.
If your candidate is at 2% or 5% in the polls, pack it in. Hillary will roll on to victory.
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The Velveteen Ocelot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-08-06 07:07 PM
Response to Reply #2
6. Oh, please.
How about letting the voters decide? I'm not about to "pack it in" and let Windsock Clinton "roll on to victory," and neither are plenty of other Dems who want no part of Hillary DLClinton.
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wisteria Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-08-06 09:57 PM
Response to Reply #2
14. Whatever! n/t
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mtnsnake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-08-06 10:00 PM
Response to Reply #2
16. hahaha, good one! That'll get them foaming at the mouths here!
:rofl:

:toast:
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blm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-08-06 06:53 PM
Response to Original message
3. Democratic voters tend to give the DEBATES a full hearing first before they actually
clarify their choices.

They have been tending to do that for decades now.
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KKKarl is an idiot Donating Member (662 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-08-06 06:56 PM
Response to Original message
4. Good post
I remember some of these polls. But it came to me a surprise when John Kerry literally came from no where to become the front-runner & eventually win.

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cadmium Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-08-06 07:13 PM
Response to Reply #4
8. It didn't surprise me at all. At the time the democrats were not expected to
Edited on Fri Dec-08-06 07:15 PM by cadmium
have a chance against Bush. Seeing this at the time, I figured most candidates' support was built on sand. One day Howard Dean was unbeatable-on the front page of all the magazines and all the news reports. The next day it was Wesley Clark blowing everyone away. I guessed that Kerry would come on heavily when he shuffled his campaign and handed the reins over to Ted Kennedy and his staff. Ted Kennedy doesnt have the over-arching power in the country that the Clinton's seem to have, but he has a lot of friends in unions and local democratic operations. Ted is still formidable. Before he got Ted's support John Kerry really didnt have much political infrastructure of his own. He did well in the debates while everyone else (except Al Sharpton) faltered. That's how I remember it.
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snowbear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-08-06 07:26 PM
Response to Reply #4
13. I agree...
Look at his poll numbers before and after Iowa!

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wisteria Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-08-06 09:58 PM
Response to Reply #4
15. The comeback kid.n/t
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Mabus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-08-06 07:04 PM
Response to Original message
5. Excellent post
fwiw, I just Charlie Cook on Tucker (can't find the remote, honest) and he gave his opinion on some possible candidates. AFter it was over, I looked at my husband and reminded him that 6 weeks for the midterm elections Cook was forecasting that Jim Ryun (R-KS) would easily be re-elected. Two weeks before the election he had to change it to a toss-up, leans Republican. Well, Nancy Boyda was elected to Ryun's seat with a 4% margin.
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David Dunham Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-08-06 07:07 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. 2008 is really different than 2004 because 2008 has stars like Hillary
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babylonsister Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-08-06 07:14 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. Stars like Hillary? Says you, the rethugs, and who? She's
Edited on Fri Dec-08-06 07:22 PM by babylonsister
not on my radar at all. I will wait and see how the primaries go.

Edit to add the media: they're salivating at the thought of a Hil run, if only for the fireworks.
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cadmium Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-08-06 07:18 PM
Response to Reply #9
11. I don;'t like her either but this is a point. A lot of the
Clintonistas more or less sat out 2004 until the end - when it was clear it was going to be a contest.
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wryter2000 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-08-06 07:15 PM
Response to Original message
10. I wasn't bent out of shape in 2004.
I'll survive in 2008, I'm sure.
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David Dunham Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-08-06 07:25 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. Hillary is a major league candidate. The rest, except Gore, are minor leaguers.
Gore is the only candidate who would have a realistic shot at beating Hillary.
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wisteria Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-08-06 10:02 PM
Response to Reply #12
17. I would count Kerry in that list, just for his debating skills along.
I won't even touch on experience and knowledge.
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snowbear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-08-06 11:00 PM
Response to Reply #17
19. Ed Schultz said on his radio show a couple days ago...
... that C-Span should re-run all three of the debates just to show how Kerry pulled out a "hat-trick" and kicked Bush's ass in them.

He said it would be valuable viewing, even now, for everyone to watch all 3 of them again.

Big Eddie has Kerry on his show a LOT and has become a huge fan of his..

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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-08-06 10:26 PM
Response to Reply #12
18. I was just about with you until this comment. Now, i call bullshit.
n/t
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