WP political blog: John Edwards is a top-tier candidate; biggest question mark is fundraising

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
John Edwards's Bad Timing?


Edwards unveiled his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination from the Lower Ninth Ward, the part of New Orleans hit hardest last year by Hurricane Katrina. (AP Photo)

....The coverage of Ford's death is sure to eclipse that of Edwards's announcement on most media outlets and rob the former senator of his expected week in the sun. It's important to remember, however, that campaign announcements tend to be quickly forgotten....And so, while Edwards would have preferred several days of coverage of his announcement from the Lower 9th Ward of New Orleans (one of the areas hardest hit by Hurricane Katrina), not having that coverage is hardly a political death sentence.

As The Fix has noted before, Edwards should rightly be considered in the top tier of Democratic candidates, along with Clinton and Obama. He has a number of built-in advantages leftover from his 2004 campaign, the most important of which is his popularity in Iowa. In the two polls taken of hypothetical 2008 Iowa caucus goers, Edwards has led a field that included Clinton, Obama and Kerry.

Beyond Iowa, the nominating calendar shapes up quite well for Edwards, with a caucus in Nevada where labor's role could be decisive and then, after the New Hampshire primary, a primary in South Carolina where he was born and where he won in 2004.

The biggest question mark for Edwards is whether he can raise the money necessary to compete with Clinton and Obama. During his 2004 campaign, Edwards had a HUGE first quarter of 2003, raising more than $7 million, which at that time was an eye-opening number. He followed that up with several decent quarters, but by the end of 2003 Edwards had raised just $16 million. In 2007, Clinton and/or Obama could well raise $16 million in a single three-month quarter. Edwards must show that he can stay within financial shouting distance of these two titans.

If Edwards can raise the money (and that remains a major IF), he should be one of the three candidates with a real shot at the nomination given his strength in the early voting states, his charisma and the fact that of the three he is the only one who has been a candidate for national office before. The next three months on the fundraising circuit should prove critical to determining the seriousness of Edwards's candidacy.

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2006/12/john_edwards_bad_timing.html#more

Prejudice and racism are marks against Clinton and Obama.

This is unfortunate, but it's just the way it is. We can't change it before '08, no matter how badly we might want to.

Edwards has a good chance of winning, if the party will unite behind him.

Flame away, fellow DUers... :hide:


spelling edit

It's up to our primary voters. I like Edwards a lot, and think he can win in '08. I also feel the same about others who are/might be running.

I think you're correct about Clinton and Obama. I would never vote for Hillary for President anyway, and I don't think Obama has a real shot with the voters. I think Edwards is, so far, the best candidate we could field nationally.

The problem is going to be the DLC, as always. Will Edwards play their game? Will they push Hillary until we all go off the cliff right behind her?

Dems need to remember that we won the mid-terms from the ground up. NOT because of Rahm Emmanuel (sp?), but because Howard Dean was absolutely right about needing a 50 state strategy.

If we fall back into the same old DLC trap, a Republican will win in '08.

-chef-

and hubby found it while surfing.

He asked me what I think, and I pretty much told him what I wrote here.

He said Edwards and Obama would be an unbeatablre ticket in '08. I tend to agree.

And anyone who refuses to vote for the Democratic candidate (whoever it may be) is voting for an extention of the Bush years.

Assuming they both run, of course. The media would much rather talk about the two of them, and they are both going to soak up the most money and talented staff. Edwards would certainly have a good shot of winning if both of them were to drop off the planet, but 2008 won't be 2004. His potential advantages in places like Iowa and NH and especially SC are going to be totally thrown out of whack is both an African-American and a Clinton run for president too. If Gore were to be added to the mix, it would throw the whole contest into even more craziness, but I don't think he's going to run. But ya never know.

Nevertheless, I wish Edwards the best of luck and all that jazz, but he's no longer seen as the Democratic Party's good looking charismatic rising star he once was. To many, he's now just a lightweight pretty face. Old news.