|
They Can Diss the Roots… But You Deliver the Oxygen Part II
Part One utilized more clever metaphors than I can possibly keep juggling without collision, which is one reason why dividing this blog into two segments seemed like a good idea. So it’s back to basics now with no further talk of Proms, though I will have more to say about that Oxygen.
There are a few key factors regarding the 2008 race that conventional wisdom has forgotten, if it ever adequately grasped it to begin with. For example there are personal characteristics that define a genuine netroots candidate, and while those qualities can be mimicked they can not faithfully be manufactured. Stands taken on issues are of course important, but it’s not just what a candidate takes stands on, it is also how a candidate stands for their beliefs, that wins or loses netroots support. If the beltway has a current defining political cliché; “Oxygen in the Room”, then the netroots has one also; “Truth to Power.” Howard Dean wears the mantle of a Truth to Power Democrat, so too does Jim Webb. And so also does Wesley Clark, unlike the other second tier Presidential candidates.
Looking at the 2008 Presidential race, for now Barack Obama and John Edwards are both attracting netroots support, while Hillary Clinton is seriously lagging. All three though clearly have other sources of support, which I briefly acknowledged earlier. If nothing else they all benefit from a conventional wisdom tailwind that pushes them each forward. I realize I might be sounding harsh about the “wisdom” of CW, so let me explain further. I do not challenge the reasons why conventional wisdom picks out the above three Democrats as strong contenders to win the Presidential nomination. No argument there from me, all of them currently are. I am mostly attacking the air tightness (literally and figuratively) of the insufficient Oxygen in the Room theory, which is sometimes used to claim that it will be almost impossible for Wes Clark’s presidential aspirations to survive inside that environment.
Joe Biden may be forced to fight Goliaths for oxygen inside that room, but not Wes Clark. Wes Clark doesn’t fit into the same box. More to the point, Wes Clark starts equipped with his own portable tank of Oxygen. You see netroots candidates are like scuba divers, they move through different spaces (like Move On and My Space) where conventional observers have a difficult time tracking them - until they pop up near their destination.
I am not talking about a form of magic; I am talking about a form of organization, a form that brings tangible and measurable results that rarely are seen by those who either won’t or don’t know how to look for them, until those results start staring them in the face. In 2006 Wes Clark asked his supporters to throw their efforts behind Democratic congressional candidates in the mid term elections, and that is what they did. Clark didn’t just ask for help in a few crucial close races, he sought support for several dozen Democrats, many of whom were considered real long shots. His supporters responded, and a number of those long shots actually won, including great new Democratic voices like Carol Shea Porter in New Hampshire, a grassroots candidate if ever there was one. It turns out that Clark’s grassroots organization is much stronger and deeper now than it was the last time he ran for President.
So it was a productive political year for Wes Clark, but there was still something important missing. Wes Clark never campaigned for himself. In fact it has been 3 years since anyone has really seen Wes Clark campaigning for himself. Clark has done a ton on campaigning over that span as it turns out, but always for someone else. Since Wes Clark withdrew from the 2004 Presidential race, he’s worked to advance the message and careers of other Democrats, and to strengthen the Democratic Party as a whole.
Since early 2004, few have gotten the opportunity to witness Wes Clark speaking out forcefully about his own agenda for America, and about his own vision for guiding our nation safely into the 21st Century. Some other National Democrats it seems used the 2006 Congressional elections as a thinly veiled backdrop to promote themselves for President. One could be excused for believing that the very future of our nation almost solely depended on the results of a handful of races in Iowa, based on the time some future candidates for President devoted to campaigning in that State compared to elsewhere in our rather large country. Wes Clark went where Democrats needed him, not where he needed Democrats, and I imagine that helped keep Clark off of some conventional radar screens.
So what changes now, if Wes Clark declares a clear interest in pursuing the Presidency in 2008? He gets to speak truth to power about anything that he wants to, and everything that he has to, that’s the first thing that changes. And the netroots will become his media, because the netroots always respects that type message, so it effectively amplifies the messenger in all of the decentralized populist ways that make up the web; links will be left to videos, to interviews, to transcripts. Word will spread and enthusiasm will build. For the politicians and pundits pent up inside a common beltway room, oxygen may in fact grow scant, but there’s a much bigger world outside of that box. Clark might start out being ignored on Meet the Press, but he won’t be on You Tube.
Can that be enough to win the Democratic Presidential nomination? Of course not, how naive do you think I am? At some point the scuba diver must surface, at some point his Oxygen tank runs out of gas, but it was never meant to be used for the final approach, just to maneuver within range. It’s early folks; it’s still very, very early. Like a guerilla army Clark can afford to travel a little lighter now than the forces of contemporary wisdom are gearing up for. Sure Clark will need Oxygen, but he’ll have more than enough for what he needs at this stage.
Most of Clark’s real strengths from 2004 have been forgotten by the beltway, only his weaknesses are recalled. That too will end up proving useful to Wes Clark’s 2008 campaign. One of the main reasons why Goliath usually loses the fight is because Goliath has a hard time living up to expectations, but not David. David can shatter low expectations with relative ease. So let the pundits remember how Clark muffed his first Press interview, it just sets up the story line of how vastly he’s improved.
I’m slipping back into metaphors again; I can’t stop myself. Since we already have Oxygen in play, let’s mix in some water. Most everyone has heard of a “money stream”, it’s a nice descriptive term. Goliaths are damn builders who depend on their reservoirs, so Davids must be better at living off the land. It’s all but forgotten now, but after entering the race a year late, Wes Clark raised more money in January of 2004 than any other Presidential candidate, and the thing is, though many are prone to assume otherwise, most of that WASN’T Clinton assisted money. Next to Howard Dean, Wes Clark had the smallest average contribution of any Democratic candidate. Wes Clark tapped into multi thousands of supporters willing to write him modest checks.
Ah but this time will be different, the pundits cry. This time will be MUCH more expensive. Most likely that’s true. But something that has not changed is human nature. People want to back a winner, and if a front runner falters, if a dark horse comes on strong, all prior bets are off. So here is the point where it must be said, although Wes Clark is a netroots candidate, his potential appeal is far broader than that. Howard Dean won the abiding loyalty of activist Democrats in each state of the Union, but more traditional Democrats in less Liberal parts were wary of Dean heading up the ticket in their neck of the woods come that November. Ned Lamont, fairly or not, was seen by many mainstream voters as an anti-war protest candidate. Wes Clark is the former NATO Supreme Commander. People are inclined to trust him on national security.
The fact is Wes Clark was welcomed by Democrats to campaign in the reddest districts in the nation during the 2006 mid term Congressional elections. Once Clark gains traction, he can pick up speed very quickly. Come 2008, Wes Clark will have an organizational structure ready in every primary State. He already has a national following. Will Clark’s campaign be as deeply staffed, as early in the game, as one that a Goliath can pay for? Probably not, but someone who lives off the land knows how to travel lighter. It’s a long journey from here to the first primaries, and a self reliant traveler can shoulder a lighter pack. Dehydrated meals are the lightest of all. When the time comes head to a stream and they’ll be ready in no time at all.
|
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
