Mydd's Chris Bowers: The first New Hampshire poll of the season from Suffolk

New Hampshire Poll
by Chris Bowers, Tue Mar 06, 2007 at 08:06:41 PM EST

http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/3/6/20641/98563

The first New Hampshire poll of the season from Suffolk is out. To my great frustration, it is also the only New Hampshire poll to be released in almost a month. It has a small sample size (212 in the Democratic sample), so it underscores the need for more polls out of New Hampshire to help put these results in perspective. February 24-28, 212 Democrats, with supposedly an margin of error of only four despite the sample size:

Clinton: 28
Obama: 26
Edwards: 17
Biden: 3
Kucinich: 2
Richardson: 2
Unsure: 17

If we could get even a single post-Vilsack poll of Iowa, we might start to have a handle on the shape of the primaries. With numbers like these, Clinton looks extremely vulnerable, especially considering the "poll found that Clinton's unfavorability rating of 48 percent was the highest of any candidate." If Obama is already this close to Clinton in New Hampshire, and significantly closing the gap in national polls, she is going to need to find something to turn the direction of the campaign around. The current course does not bode well for her.

The Republican numbers add more fuel to the to the bonfire that used to be John McCain's run for President. They also make me wonder if Romney will pass McCain soon:

Giuliani: 37
McCain: 27
Romney: 17
Ron Paul: 2
Tom Tancredo: 2
No opinion: 12

I think the Republican nomination will ultimately come down to Giuliani versus Romney. Compared to McCain, both candidates are rising nicely in the polls, have far more insider support, and generally higher favorability among Republicans who know who they are. McCain is nearly finished--already. The idea of an outsider, longshot type winning the Republican nomination seems highly unlikely to me.

I personally have been saying he will do so by this summer. I can see the momentum keep building and there is nothing Hillary can do to overcome her lack of getting people excited about her.

People are tired of it. McCain and Hillary are old news with old ideas.