Fellow Obama Supporters: I'm Getting Nervous

I'm not trying to be an alarmist or dramatic because I know the caucuses and primaries are still a long way to go. Yet, I'm starting to get a bit nervous lately as I look at the various polls, both state and national. Besides the fact that Clinton has demonstrated that she has a juggernaut political and money machine in place that makes her nomination seem all but inevitable, I also feel that the first four caucuses/primaries are not going to be to Obama's advantage. Edwards and Clinton are dominating Iowa, especially now that Vilsack is out. Nevada, also seems ripe for either Clinton and Edwards. Union support and western voters make Edwards very competitive. South Carolina is Edwards territory, though again, I expect Clinton's machine and firm support in the African-American community to put her within striking distance. The only place I see Obama making ground is New Hampshire. With all the big state primaries moving up to extremely early dates, and being all crammed togther, I fear that it will be an even quicker version of 2004, in which all the states quickly fell to Kerry. If Obama doesn't pick up steam early, it can be over quick for him.

For the past few months or so, it seems like everything was going Obama's way: media attention, quick comebacks against attacks, star power, great speeches. But if he comes in third in Iowa and can't pick build momentum going into states like California, where does that leave us? I also feel that although Obama is popular with crowds and average people, his campaign also seems to be missing out on getting the political support of local officials in these primary states that are essential to winning other endorsements and ultimately the primary itself. Again, I know how quickly things can turn around. Lieberman was once our likely 04 candidate, then it was Howard Dean. But with the nature of the early, crammed primaries in large states, and the Clinton machine, I'm still nervous.

And he's not. He is, however, perceived as a legitimate candidate who has a real shot. At this stage of the race that's an impressive feat. He's fallen back to earth somewhat and that's just completely to be expected. Doesn't mean it'll stay that way.

oops

Sometimes it takes 1 simple event to deflate a campaign. If Hillary does poorly in Iowa, I'd think that will really take the steam out of her campaign (like it did to Dean).

The bottom line is... most people aren't paying attention yet. You have many more months to go before you should start being worried.

Although if he is not nominated I hope whoever gives Obama strong consideration for VP slot!

one that I know has any intention of voting for him, no one I know thinks he has any business putting his name in the ring considering that until 2004 no one even knew who he was. I live right smack dab in the middle of the country and I have NEVER met anyone who thinks he'd be a good candidate. I know I have no intention of voting for him either which is no big deal.

Mark my words. He will not be the Democratic nominee for President. And please all things good and holy in this world and any other, Hillary won't either.

early out. He's the underdog, which is not a bad spot to be in right now. He'll do fine.

that Obama will begin to flounder like a wounded animal after he takes center stage. I'm hoping his handlers will tell him when it's time to throw in the towel, rather than have him carry on over his head on the inevitable path to his self-destruction.

I hope others are looking out for him, as I am.

With statements like this...

"I'm hoping his handlers will tell him when it's time to throw in the towel, rather than have him carry on over his head on the inevitable path to his self-destruction"

PLEASE...with friends/supporters like you who the hell needs enemies?? Please do us all a favor and stop 'looking out after him'.

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there's a long way to go yet. Besides, like others said, one little thing can tip a race like this on it's side at any moment, so no need in worrying this far out. The only people that really care about current day standings/polls/etc are people like us here. But we aren't the norm, now are we? ;)

I just hope that we have the foresight enough not to nominate Clinton. I will be fine with just about anyone else. I will lose hope if it's her. We'd probably be looking at another 8 years of getting our ass kicked.

and while they're digesting the meal, the Net police (Greenwald/Salon and TPM among others) are exposing their herd-like and empty ways.

Still, Obama gave them an opening with the weak health-care forum performance on Saturday. Axelrod's, "Hi, I'm Barack," phase has to cometo an end sooner than they thought and I think they're getting it. You're already seeing sharper rhetoric (the "social Darwinism" phrase yesterday, which earned Obama headlines over Hillary and Edwards, who spoke at the same forum) and the April 3 health care town hall-style meeting in NH. The MSM and other doubters will realize very soon that the no-substance meme is crap.

This is a marathon and Barack is built for the long haul. Hang in there.

two things come to mind:

1) It's WAAAAAY early. Too many things can change. Hillary has HER HUSBAND'S machine going for her and everyone knew she would come out of the starting gate strong because of it. Any polling this early out means NOTHING. Hillary's support is a mile wide and a 1/4" deep. Now, whether the machine will still be strong enough (currently debatable) to shove their establishment candidate down everyone's throat again remains to be seen.

2) Iowa and New Hampshire aren't as important as they've been in the past. A WHOLE bunch of states have moved or are in the process of moving their primaries up as a direct result of what happened in 2004.

Think of the bounce each general election candidate gets in the polls from their conventions. Winners in NH and IA also get a bounce which wears off over time. By compressing the primaries the bounce has less time to wear off. So the first primaries are more likely than ever to decide the victor.

decided the nominee in the past without the benefit of the rest of the country getting any input. In 2004, by the time California's March primary occurred, Kerry had been chosen by 600+ mostly Caucasian Iowans and the corporate media did the rest. It remains to be seen, of course, what impact the new arrangements will have but I'd like to think the unholy alliance of the party machine (CLEARLY on Hillary's bandwagon) and the MSM will NOT be able to anoint the winner as they have in the past because the wait for other larger, more diverse states won't be several weeks away.

The recent YouTube video comes to mind, not comes the suspicion his supporters are fudging YouTube page and video view numbers.

http://www.techpresident.com/node/193

I'm not saying Obama is alone in having supporters do things like this, and I'm not saying these things are even wrong to do, but when the media spins them, they look bad.

http://www.techpresident.com/node/193

A LOT can change. Do you remember who up-and-down the primary polls were during the '04 season? And who would have picked Kerry practically sweeping the primaries just 3 weeks out?

Obama's doing well. He faces tough competition from two other very strong candidates, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. But he has a lot of strengths of his own and he may very well win this thing. It's way too early to panic.

The days grow short when you reach
September. paraphrase an old song. It is a long time until next March when all the action happens. The press has a very short memory. He will be ok or not who knows. I hope he is ok but I am an Edwards person.

...All of the primaries being moved up. It could all be SETTLED by Feb. 1st...not JUST getting cranked up.

...especially this early in the campaign.

The dynamics of the primary/caucus season is going to be very interesting with California now in contention on February 5 instead of June 5. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina all add up to about half the delegates that California has, which last I checked is 441. If Obama slams through Cali, he will be in the catbird seat.

What you do need to feel is nervous. And also in touch with the campaign. And also out in the streets working on grassroots efforts as well as online.

This is going to be a battle. Get involved.

As for Obama, I am very confident that he will do just fine on the campaign trail. Sure, there will be some hurdles to jump over, but that's part of the ride.

Contrast this to camp Hillary, whose group-think, "Air of inevitability", fixation on 1990's political models and bullying may very well be their hubris/downfall.

I'm still choosing b/t Edwards & Obama for my pic-may the best man win!!!

He has a good of a chance as any- and many a slip between a cup & a lip.

My top pics are Edwards & Obama.

Not to mention pump up what his policies and beliefs are for the country.

He should also bring up the "two families" running the country for 16 and that it isn't healthy for democracy in this country.

Just a thought.

if you're an Obama supporter you could post this in the Obama forum.

Its important not to get caught up in the weekly back and forth of who looks ahead at one moment to the next. The long run is more important and right now is a bad time to be in first place. You don't want to peak too early. That was one of Dean's mistakes and I tend to think Hillary has reached as high in the polls as she ever will. No one is going to learn anything new about Hillary that will make them change their mind because everyone already knows who she is. Obama is still introducing himself to voters and gaining support.

National polls are meaningless. The early primary states are more important. Hillary won't win Iowa and it will all be downhill for her from there.

I mean, no one's gonna have a lock on the nomination this early. So relax. A million things could happen between now and the primaries. These could be things that help your candidate or hurt your candidate - you have no way of knowing. None of us know - we all have to be realistic.

With the candidates in a dead heat in Iowa now, according to the new Zogby poll, http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1270, I can't see where Obama is losing ground. And with California moving it's primary up, that can only be a good thing. I live in South Carolina and of course I haven't seen any polls from here, but I see plenty of support for him here so don't count us out either! If the Democrats nominate Hillary just because she has the 'money machine in place'...then we will get exactly what we deserve....another Republican President.

And who cares what the MSM says?

Let's use the energy in positive things, like getting involved, donating, etc. I think Obama is getting the message that the introductory phase of his campaign is basically over, and we are starting to see him in attack mode now (jabs against Bush, McCain).

I still have a lot of faith in Obama's capacities and good judgement.

We have a local meeting planned here this Saturday, our first full-fledged one of its kind. Should be a good time, and a good way to start beefing up our local support.

Barack will also be doing a live webcast during the meeting. Supposed to be quite a few like it going on around the country. I'll probably post details in the Obama page after the event. :thumbsup:

he's just gettin started people. :evilgrin: :evilgrin: :evilgrin: :evilgrin: ;)

The election will be rigged for the best candidate to complete the NAU. That my dear will probably be Hillary unless Edwards is in on it too. They have been working on it far too hard and long to risk it now.

WE'RE TOAST.

It's early and a lot of folks don't know much about Obama. He's collecting money from large donors hand over fist. He probably won't exceed Hillary's donations, but it shows he has a lot of high rollers who believe in him enough to wager on him.

With that said, I do think there is a strong possibility that Edwards and Obama will sort of split the voters who are looking for an alternative to Clinton, as both share a similar message. Obama will need to play his cards well and if he's smart, he'll play against Clinton, rather than Edwards. Keep in mind, too, that Obama has already tapped into a lot of younger potential voters that aren't registered and therefore are not polled. If anyone can get them to the polls, he can.

I understand your concerns and I'm not immune from fretting about the same things myself, but logically, we need to keep in mind that it's far too early to succumb to 'foregone conclusions'.

He's still a good guy.

He will do fine. There will be ups and downs but he is still defining himself. Almost everyone I know likes him and this group includes oldsters, youngsters, Democrats, Independents and a few Republicans. I have been around this game for many a year, going back to Eisenhower/Stevenson, and my gut tells me that if anyone is going to spoil Hillary's party, it is going to be Obama.

The party power brokers have declared her their choice and as long as she doesn't come out as a lesbian or in favor of strangling puppies as a government sponsored after school activity, she'll be our choice.

I suppose it could be worse, they could have picked Lieberman.

Ms. Greyhound has an interesting theory about her that gives me some hope, but I'm waiting awhile before stating it.

so this type of polling is too early to get uptight about.