Obama leads Giuliani by 4, HRC trails Giuliani by 6. Dem race tightens nationally

==On the Democratic side, Clinton, at 33 percent, is 10 points ahead of Obama. A Gallup poll last week showed a much larger lead. Former North Carolina Senator John Edwards and former Vice President Al Gore trail at 14 and 13 percent, respectively. All other Democratic hopefuls barely register. When the list is narrowed to Clinton, Obama and Edwards, the gap between the candidates stays about the same, with Clinton beating Obama, 42 percent to 32 percent.

In a three-way race, Clinton, 59, has an advantage over Obama, 45, both with blacks, who prefer her 50 percent to 41 percent, and women, who choose her by a 15-point margin.

Still, Obama is proving competitive with Clinton, and the poll shows he fares better among young voters. He also has a strong following in the Midwest, where he is behind Clinton by just 4 points.==

==Clinton is 6 points behind Giuliani, and Obama narrowly leads Giuliani by 4 points. Obama is also ahead of McCain by 8 points and Romney by 19 points, compared with Clinton's 3-point lead over McCain and 7-point advantage over Romney.==

The poll also found that 11% of voters said they would not vote for a Mormon.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=a3mcmLhzTjF8&refer=home

a lot of time for any of the candidates to surge or fall in the polls along with the occasional meltdown. Nevertheless, very interesting stuff....

He was once the "inevitable" front-runner and now he has slipped behind someone who isn't even running right now.

n/t

She consistently fares substantially worse in general election matchups than Edwards and Obama. Can we ignore that and hope that after sixteen years in the national spotlight and 99% name ID she will magically be able to turn that around in a few months in 2008? The risk is not academic. It may result in a President Giuliani or President Thompson. Can we afford gambling on four more years of Republican rule?

just NY - but there is no trend of HRC losing percentage of population approval as she campaigns in her NY victories.

Indeed the falling out of love problem has hit Rudy -and McCain - and Mitt - at least among GOP voters to whom their campaign has been focused to date.

It is possible that might hit any of the Dem "new faces" - a pop up - and then a slow drop - who knows.

And the RNC already has started to focus on the front runner - Obama with his 100,000 donors - but has not turned on the media guns just yet - perhaps holding back until next year. But they have put out this Letterman rip-off below into their email plus this notice of Obama and Moveon - but the RNC has turned off their media guns regarding Obama for the next year - why?

http://www.rnc.org/News/Read.aspx?ID=6885

Monday, April 09, 2007
Obama's Top Ten Fabrications

Some Suggestions For David Letterman's Top Ten List Tonight As Obama Drops By The Late Show

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#10: Obama Was A Constitutional Law Professor:



At A Recent Fundraiser, Obama Claimed He Was A "Constitutional Law Professor." "'I was a constitutional law professor, which means unlike the current president I actually respect the Constitution,' Obama told an audience at a campaign fundraiser." (Brendan Farrington, "Obama: Bush Fails To Respect The Constitution," The Associated Press, 3/30/07)



* On The University Of Chicago Law School Website, Obama Is Listed As A "Senior Lecturer In Law (On Leave Of Absence)." (University Of Chicago Law School Website, http://www.law.uchicago.edu/faculty/obama, Accessed 3/30/07)

Obama Made This False Claim In His 2004 Senate Race. "Several direct-mail pieces issued for Obama's primary campaign said he was a law professor at the University of Chicago. He is not. He is a senior lecturer (now on leave) at the school. In academia, there is a vast difference between the two titles. Details matter." (Lynn Sweet, "Obama's Book: What's Real, What's Not" Chicago Sun-Times, 8/8/04)



#9: Obama's Parents "Got Together" Because Of The 1965 Selma March:



In His Selma Speech, Obama Said His Parents "Got Together" And He Was Born As A Result Of The Selma March. Obama: "Because some folks were willing to march across a bridge. So they got together and Barack Obama, Jr. was born. So don't tell me I don't have a claim on Selma, Alabama." (Senator Barack Obama, Remarks At Brown Chapel AME Church, Selma, AL, 3/4/07)



* "Earlier In The Day At A Prayer Breakfast, The Illinois Democrat Said: 'If It Hadn't Been For Selma, I Wouldn't Be Here.'" (Anne E. Kornblut and Peter Whoriskey, "Clinton, Obama Link Selma March To Present," The Washington Post, 3/5/07)

But Obama Was Born In 1961, 4 YEARS BEFORE The 1965 Selma March. "Barack Obama was born in Hawaii on August 4th, 1961." (Obama For America Website, www.barackobama.com, Accessed 3/6/07; Anne E. Kornblut and Peter Whoriskey, "Clinton, Obama Link Selma March To Present," The Washington Post, 3/5/07)



#8: Obama Was Fluent In Indonesian As A Child:



Obama's Claim That He Quickly Became Fluent In Indonesian As A Child Was Disputed By A Former Teacher. "Obama has claimed on numerous occasions to have become fluent in Indonesian in six months. Yet those who knew him disputed that during recent interviews. Israella Pareira Darmawan, Obama's 1st-grade teacher, said she attempted to help him learn the Indonesian language by going over pronunciation and vowel sounds. He struggled greatly with the foreign language, she said, and with his studies as a result." (Kirsten Scharnberg and Kim Barker, "The Not-So-Simple Story Of Barack Obama's Youth," Chicago Tribune, 3/25/07)



#7: Obama Mistakenly Received A Letter From A Company In Which He Owned Stock:



"Obama Said At Some Point In Fall 2005 He Got A Stockholder Letter. He Said He Believes It Was From AVI Or Skyterra, But He Couldn't Remember Which Company." (Nedra Pickler, "Obama Unaware Of Investment Conflicts," The Associated Press, 3/7/07)



* According To SEC Records, SkyTerra Did Not Send Investors Its SEC Proxy Forms In Fall 2005. "The origin of the shareholder update Obama referred to remains unclear. SkyTerra, like many public companies, sends investors copies of its Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proxy forms, also known as 14As, but none were issued during the fall of 2005, according to SEC records." (Elana Schor, "2008 And Counting: Sen. Obama Pivots After Bad Press," The Hill, 3/8/07)

* AVI Investor-Relations Director: "It Doesn't Sound Like Anything We Would Have Sent Out." "AVI generally sends mailings to shareholders or institutional investors that proactively request them or sign up for e-mail lists, said Michael Hubbard, AVI's investor-relations director. 'It doesn't sound like anything we would have sent out,' Hubbard said." (Elana Schor, "2008 And Counting: Sen. Obama Pivots After Bad Press," The Hill, 3/8/07)

#6: Obama's Campaign Only Had "Very Attenuated" Ties To The "1984" Ad Creator:



Obama Suggested That "1984" Ad Creator Phil De Vellis Was The Equivalent Of A Contract Employee And Therefore Could Not Be Held Responsible For His Conduct. "Thursday, Obama said of de Vellis that his campaign had no way of knowing who this person was.' 'If I have a phone contract with Verizon and an employee of a phone company does something that you know ... we're not responsible for that,' Obama said." (Jake Tapper and Jonathan Greenberger, "Anti-Clinton Ad Maker Lived With Obama Senate Staffer," ABC News, 3/23/07)



De Vellis Is An Employee Of Blue State Digital, A Computer Firm Consulting For Obama. "Obama's campaign says it had no role in creating or posting the ad. But Wednesday, Democratic operative Philip de Vellis took credit for the ad. It turned out that he worked for Blue State Digital, a computer firm that is among Obama's consultants." (Dan Morain, "Ad Creator Claimed Role In Obama Campaign," Los Angeles Times, 3/23/07)



* Joe Rospars, A Co-Founder Of Blue State Digital, Is Now Obama's Director Of New Media. "Blue State helped design Obama's Web site, and one of the firm's founding members, Joe Rospars, took a leave from the company to work as Obama's director of new media." (Jim Kuhnhenn, "Anti-Clinton Ad Puts Spotlight On Obama," The Associated Press, 3/23/07)

"On Thursday, An Earlier E-Mail Surfaced In Which De Vellis Boasted To Numerous People About His Role In The Creation Of A Web Page, My.BarackObama. Com, A Site Designed By Blue State Digital." (Dan Morain, "Ad Creator Claimed Role In Obama Campaign," Los Angeles Times, 3/23/07)



Obama's Press Secretary Recently Lived With De Vellis, Undermining Obama's Previous Statements That His Campaign Had Only "Very Attenuated" Ties. "The press secretary for Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., recently lived with the creator of the scathingly satirical YouTube video ad that attacked Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., a revelation that seems to undermine the senator's claim that he and his campaign had only 'very attenuated' ties with the ad's creator." (Jake Tapper and Jonathan Greenberger, "Anti-Clinton Ad Maker Lived With Obama Senate Staffer," ABC News, 3/23/07)



#5: Obama's Campaign Didn't Have The "Technical Capacity" To Produce The "1984" Ad:



Obama Claims Campaign Didn't Have The "Technical Capacity" To Create The Ad. Obama: "But it's not something that we had anything to do with or were aware of and that frankly, given what it looks like, we don't have the technical capacity to create something like that." (CNN's "Larry King Live," 3/24/07)



But The Creator Admitted All It Took Was A "Sunday Afternoon" On His Mac. Phillip de Vellis: "I made the ad on a Sunday afternoon in my apartment using my personal equipment (a Mac and some software), uploaded it to YouTube, and sent links around to blogs." (The Huffington Post, "I Made the "Vote Different" Ad," Posted By Phil De Vellis, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/phil-de-vellis-aka-parkridge/i-made-the-vote-differen_b_43989.html, Posted 3/21/07 )



#4: Obama's Campaign Claimed His High School Friend Tried To Extort Money From Them:



"According To The Obama Campaign, Kakugawa Explicitly Raised The Possibility That He Could Make Up False Stories About Obama, Implying He Would Do So If The Campaign Did Not Give Him Money." (Maurice Possley, Kirsten Scharnberg and Ray Gibson, "An Old Friend's Troublesome Return," Chicago Tribune, 3/25/07)



Kakugawa Was "Infuriated" By The Charge And Flatly Denied It. "That allegation infuriated Kakugawa, prompting him to speak to the Tribune after repeatedly refusing to do so. 'You must understand, I am not an extortionist,' he said in a telephone interview from Los Angeles, where he is living out of a car with an acquaintance after being released from a California prison on March 10. 'Listen, I'm homeless. ... I ask everyone I know for money.'" (Maurice Possley, et al, "An Old Friend's Troublesome Return," Chicago Tribune, 3/25/07)



* "Kakugawa Wouldn't Discuss His School Days With Obama Other Than To Say He Considered The Senator 'A Brother' And 'Wouldn't Do A Damn Thing To Ever Hurt His Campaign.'" (Maurice Possley, et al, "An Old Friend's Troublesome Return," Chicago Tribune, 3/25/07)

#3: Obama Places Himself In The Central Role In The Altgeld Gardens Asbestos Campaign:



Obama "Unfairly Omits Others Responsible For The Successes Of The Asbestos Campaign." "And though most memoirs place their authors at the center of events, critics of Dreams From My Father say the book unfairly omits others responsible for the successes of the asbestos campaign, an event that Obama portrays as central to his maturation as a political leader." (Peter Wallsten, "Obama Memoir Left Out Credits For Activism, Critics Say," Los Angeles Times, 2/19/07)



"Obama Did Not Play The Singular Role In The Asbestos Episode." "They say Obama did not play the singular role in the asbestos episode that he portrays in the best-selling memoir 'Dreams From My Father: A Story of Race and Inheritance.' Credit for pushing officials to deal with the cancer-causing substance, according to interviews and news accounts from that period, also goes to a well-known preexisting group at Altgeld Gardens and to a local newspaper called the Chicago Reporter. Obama does not mention either one in his book." (Peter Wallsten, "Obama Memoir Left Out Credits For Activism, Critics Say," Los Angeles Times, 2/19/07)



#2: Obama Had Heated Discussions With A High School Friend Named "Ray" About Racial Issues:



Although Obama Recounts "Heated Conversations About Racism" With A Character He Calls "Ray," The Real "Ray" Says It Never Happened. "In his best-selling autobiography, 'Dreams from My Father,' Obama describes having heated conversations about racism with another black student, 'Ray.' The real Ray, Keith Kakugawa . . . said he does recall long, soulful talks with the young Obama and that his friend confided his longing and loneliness. But those talks, Kakugawa said, were not about race. 'Not even close' . . ." (Kirsten Scharnberg and Kim Barker, "The Not-So-Simple Story Of Barack Obama's Youth," Chicago Tribune, 3/25/07)



Obama Did Not Participate In Discussions On Race With His Fellow Black Classmates In High School. "The handful of black students who attended Punahou School in Hawaii, for instance, say they struggled mightily with issues of race and racism there. But absent from those discussions, they say, was another student then known as Barry Obama." (Kirsten Scharnberg and Kim Barker, "The Not-So-Simple Story Of Barack Obama's Youth," Chicago Tribune, 3/25/07)



#1: Seeing A Photograph In Life Or Ebony Magazine Changed Obama's Life:



The Life Magazine Article And Photograph Obama Discusses "Doesn't Exist." "Then there's the copy of Life magazine that Obama presents as his racial awakening at age 9. In it, he wrote, was an article and two accompanying photographs of an African-American man physically and mentally scarred by his efforts to lighten his skin. In fact, the Life article and the photographs don't exist, say the magazine's own historians." (Kirsten Scharnberg and Kim Barker, "The Not-So-Simple Story Of Barack Obama's Youth," Chicago Tribune, 3/25/07)



Obama Volunteered It May Have Been Ebony Magazine, But No Such Ebony Article Matched Obama's Description. "When asked about the discrepancy, Obama said in a recent interview, 'It might have been an Ebony or it might have been ... who knows what it was?' (At the request of the Tribune, archivists at Ebony searched their catalogue of past articles, none of which matched what Obama recalled.)" (Kirsten Scharnberg and Kim Barker, "The Not-So-Simple Story Of Barack Obama's Youth," Chicago Tribune, 3/25/07)

==========================================
And when MOVEON's vote went to Obama the RNC was content will a small email

Liberal Group MoveOn.Org Votes Inexperienced Obama "Best Able To Lead The Country Out Of The War In Iraq"
__________________________________________________


MoveOn.Org Must Like The Silent Type; Obama Has Been Anything But A Leader On Iraq:



"Though Mr. Obama Is Framing His Candidacy To Appeal To Democrats Who Have Long Opposed The War, Until Recently He Was Not Among His Party's Most Outspoken Voices Against It." (Jeff Zeleny, "As Candidate, Obama Carves Antiwar Stance," The New York Times, 2/26/07)

* "He Campaigned Strongly Against The War In His Bid For The Senate In 2004, But When He Arrived In Washington He Waited 11 Months To Deliver A Major Speech On Iraq." (Jeff Zeleny, "As Candidate, Obama Carves Antiwar Stance," The New York Times, 2/26/07)

* "Indeed, Once Obama Got To Washington, He Made Only One Senate Speech On Iraq." (Richard Cohen, Op-Ed, "The Explanation Hillary Clinton Owes," The Washington Post, 2/13/07)

"And Only After Mr. Obama Opened A Presidential Exploratory Committee Did He Introduce Legislation To Withdraw American Combat Brigades From Iraq By March 31, 2008." (Jeff Zeleny, "As Candidate, Obama Carves Antiwar Stance," The New York Times, 2/26/07)


MoveOn.Org Members Ignore Fellow Democrats Who Have Questioned Obama's Experience On Iraq Among Other Issues:


Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair Joseph Biden On Obama's Iraq Rhetoric: "I Don't Recall Hearing A Word From Barack About A Plan Or A Tactic." (Jason Horowitz, "Biden Unbound: Lays Into Clinton, Obama, Edwards," The New York Observer, 2/5/07)


* Biden Finished Second To Last In MoveOn.Org's Member Poll. (National Journal's Hotline On Call Blog, "Obama Wins MoveOn Poll," hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com, 4/12/07)

"hile Not Mentioning Obama The Field's Charismatic Newcomer By Name, Dodd Said, 'The Idea That Someone Could Come To This Race And Bring Little Or No Experience And Still Connect Is Going To Be Hard.'" (Beth Fouhy, "Sen. Dodd To Decide On Joining 2008 Race," The Associated Press, 12/13/06)


Former Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) Attacked Obama's Experience. Edwards: "I think that Barack Obama, because he is relatively new to national politics, it's, it's not as clear to me where he stands on, on, on issues. And, and no, I'm not faulting him for that, I just--I think he just hasn't been around as long, so he doesn't have as long a track record, so." (NBC's "Meet the Press," 2/4/07)


* Edwards Attacked Obama's Iraq Inexperience. Edwards: " wasn't burdened, like a lot of us, with the information that we were receiving on the Intelligence Committee and as members of the United States Senate. We were getting very intimate detailed information about what was actually happening in Iraq. Senator Obama, I think, what did you say? He was a state senator. So he obviously wasn't in the Congress and wasn't part of the decision-making." (NBC's "Meet The Press," 2/4/07)

Does Obama Approve Of MoveOn.Org's Viewpoints?

MoveOn Petition Stated Governments Should Not Be "Held Unduly Accountable" For Actions Of Terrorist Groups Operating Within Their Borders. "Furthermore, we assert that the government of a nation must be presumed separate and distinct from any terrorist group that may operate within its borders, and therefore cannot be held unduly accountable for the latter's crimes." (MoveOn.Org Website, http://www.moveon.org/peace/petition/petition.html, Accessed 12/17/03)

* James Tisch, Chairman Of Conference Of Presidents Of Major American Jewish Organizations, Called Moveon Ads "Grotesque And Outrageous." ("Liberal Group Comes Under Fire For Ad On Its Web Site That Morphs An Image Of President Bush Into Adolf Hitler," The Associated Press, 1/5/04)

:puke:

New York is an overwhelmingly Democratic state. She also happened to run at a time when her husband was very popular in New York. Despite these advantages, she still needed a faux pas from Lazio in the debates to win!

No one has seriously argued HRC won't play in New York. Where she is weak is in Ohio, Florida, Missouri, etc. The critical swing states where voters are not nearly as liberal as those in New York.

And how is she weak - how is anyone weak - a year before the first primary?

The polls in March of next year may tell us something - today's do not.

And assertions of weakness for anyone in Ohio, Florida, Missouri, etc., before the campaign begins do not impress.

She had very favorable, nearly ideal conditions in NY and even with that she needed Lazio to physically confront her during a debate to seal the deal.

How is anyone weak right now? Some candidates are well-known and enough of the jury is in on them for us to assess how they would fare in a general election. She cannot overcome perceptions of her shaped over sixteen years in sixteen weeks before the general election.

your candidate and a need to put down Hillary.

I do not have a candidate and do not expect to make a choice until January 2008 - and I have a need to not put down other Dems.

Meanwhile on issues, I notice the specifics in Edwards and approve. I note the accomplishments of Richardson and approve. I not the toughness and smarts of Hillary and approve. I note the stage presence of Obama and great speaking style and approve - but the ears will be editorial cartoonists heaven if elected.

My main issue is single payer health and only DK has Medicare for all - with Edwards a very weak second with a Medicare option for some folks buried deep in his plan in a way that makes Medicare a dumping ground so that insurance companies can make more money - and there is no one in third place.

So far I am "too left" for this crowd - and I consider myself liberal social issues but center moderate otherwise. It is going to be a tough 17 months to the nomination.

Schumer won Upstate in 2004 and did it by a much larger margin that she did.

Yep, a whole 2 years.

It upsets their delusion that somehow she has a chance to play in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Missourri. It's even more funny to think that somehow, we can nominate her and make inroads in VA and MT and other states we did well in '06....

They've probably heard about the three marriages. I doubt they've heard that he went to live with a gay couple while separated from Donna Hanover. Or that he skipped his son's HS graduation.

They know he's "America's Mayor"" because of 9-11. I doubt they know the NYC firefighters HATE him for valuing the gold under the WTC more than getting their fallen comrades' bodies out of the rubble. Or how idiotic it was in the first place to put the city's emergency response center in the heart of the WTC complex, even after the 1994 attack on the WTC.

While he's backtracking furiously on his abortion stand, some may find it problematic that he advocated government paying for abortions for poor women.

And then there's his support of Bernard Kerik for Homeland Security chief, even though it's been revealed he was aware Kerik had mob ties. This from the man who took pride in breaking up the mob as a US Attorney!

They certainly don't know the Patrick Dorismond story. He was killed by an undercover cop who asked Dorismond if he wanted to buy drugs, and when Dorismond said fuck no, they got into a tussle and the cop shot and killed him. Giuliani stated that he didn't think Dorismond was "an altar boy." Not only did Dorismond have no criminal record, he HAD BEEN an altar boy. Oops.

Eventually one of his opponents will get these facts out, and the media won't be able to sweep it under the rug.

Or Donna Hanover will decide to open her mouth. She's going to be a little more credible than Judith "Puppy Killer" Giuliani.

n/t

Rudy G. is made in the same mold as a mafia don.

horse race posting.

read this carefully and think why it is you hate HRC so much because of her Iraq vote but you turn a blind eye to what Obama did in the Senate election in Connecticut in 2006. Ted Lamont was the anti-war candidate that won the democratic primary against Lieberman. Guess who supported Lieberman? uh huh Obama. Guess who supported the democratic party candidate Lamont? uh HRC...With others like Kerry, Dodd, Kennedy. So who is loyal to the democratic party in this instance? HRC.

Also, Obama came to Connecticut to campaign for Lieberman before the primary, very carefully timing his appearance to try to kill Ned Lamont’s antiwar primary challenge before it got off the ground.That did not work.

Then in the general election, he( Obama ) refused to lift a finger for Lamont.Remember now you Obama supporters Lamont was the anti-war candidate. For a guy like Obama who runs around bragging about his antiwar credentials, yet who then spent most of his first year in Congress absolutely silent on the war - his behavior in the Connecticut Senate race says a lot about him as the supposed post-partisan conviction candidate.

This is why Obama will not be the nominee and this has not even entered into the campaign as of yet but it is coming folks....

That's bullshit. Obama never supported Lieberman once he declared an independent run. I believe I can think of only three or four senators that supported Lieberman AFTER he launched his backstabbing bid as an indy - Salazar (CO) and Pryor (AR) are the only two that come to mind.

And BTW, Obama opposed the war when Hillary supported it. That's an undeniable fact. Seriously, Lamont was given weak support by the entire party once he won. I think Obama could have done more, but hell so could many others.