In a 3 party election (CT redux) moving to the center is stupid. but...

CK_John

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Mon Apr-23-07 08:08 PM
Original message

In a 3 party election (CT redux) moving to the center is stupid. but...

if no major IND movement makes it to Nov ballot then a move to the center is the only way to win.

These are the questions that have campaign managers pulling out their hair, if any.

Also the IND movement does not have to surface until after super Tues. So managers also have to have ready a before and after strategy. At least I hope they doing this kind of planning.

That's why they get the big bucks.

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HawkerHurricane

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Mon Apr-23-07 09:10 PM
Response to Original message

1. In a three party race...

You want to be where the other two parties aren't.

If there are two righties, you want to be the lefty. Two lefties, you want to be the righty.

(Of course, this is assuming you have this kind of choice.

Woodrow Wilson won because Teddy and Taft split the vote... Truman won because Dewey and Thurmond split the vote.

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Hippo_Tron

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Mon Apr-23-07 09:13 PM
Response to Reply #1

2. Correct about Wilson, but Truman won in spite of Thurmond and Wallace

Dewey wasn't going to gain any southern voters that were disenchanted with Truman because the Republican Party wasn't yet attempting to win over southern whites based on civil rights.

Thurmond on the right and Wallace on the left took away votes that would've gone to Truman, not to Dewey.

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HawkerHurricane

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Tue Apr-24-07 09:36 PM
Response to Reply #2

4. I stand corrected.

Wallace took votes away from Humphrey in 68, but Nixon probably would have won anyway.

But the original concept... In a three way race, be the candidate opposite the other two...

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CK_John

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Mon Apr-23-07 10:45 PM
Response to Reply #1

3. My advice to these managers is: plan for a well financed IND movement.

Because I believe big money has lost faith that the GOP can deliver for them in Nov. So they will hedge with a strong centrist (who can bankroll their own campaign if needed) and surprise VP. Think Bloomberg/Melinda Gates ticket.

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