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wyldwolf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 02:10 PM
Original message
Clinton up 10 points in California
The Democrats, on the other hand, are all business in their deliberations. A new Moore Methods survey of 800 likely Democratic voters in the state gives New York Sen. Hillary Clinton a lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, 31 percent to 21 percent, with former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards at 19 percent.

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/sfgate/detail?blogid=14&entry_id=15726
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skipos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 02:13 PM
Response to Original message
1. That's too bad.
I hope Hillary's primary numbers drop considerably, or her gen elec numbers improve considerably. The way it is looking right now makes me think I should get used to the sound of "President Giuliani."
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wyldwolf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 02:14 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. ...or President Clinton
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 02:24 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. "I should get used to the sound of "President Giuliani."
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skipos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 03:21 PM
Response to Reply #4
29. What about this little world...
USA Today/Gallup Poll. April 13-15, 2007. N=931 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.

"Thinking about the general election for president in November 2008 -- If were the Democratic Party's candidate and were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for: , the Democrat, or , the Republican?" If unsure: "As of today, do you lean more toward , the Democrat or , the Republican?" Names rotated

Giuliani 51%, Clinton 46%

Or this?

Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll. April 5-9, 2007. Registered voters nationwide.

"If the November 2008 general election for president were being held today and the choices were , the Democrat, and , the Republican, for whom would you vote: or , or would you vote for a candidate from some other party?" Names rotated. Results include leaners. N=approx. 620 registered voters (MoE ± 4).

Giuliani 48%, Clinton 42%

Or you sure I am the only one who thinks Dame Rudy could beat Clinton?

I am glad that Clinton comes close to beating Dame Rudy in that Rasmussen poll, the problem she rarely does better than Obama or Edwards in general election polls. The way it looks now if she is our nominee, we will have a tougher time beating the Republican.
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 03:41 PM
Response to Reply #29
37. The trend is Rudy going down in general with Hillary rising against Rudy
"you sure I am the only one who thinks Dame Rudy could beat Clinton?"

No, I think that cuomo dude thinks that too.

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draft_mario_cuomo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 03:57 PM
Response to Reply #29
44. Giuliani still has the highest favorables of any candidate running
Edited on Tue Apr-24-07 03:57 PM by draft_mario_cuomo
We aren't going to beat him--especially with the MSM in the tank for him--with a candidate who 45-52% of people (depending on the poll) automatically rule out voting for.
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 04:15 PM
Response to Reply #44
47. Go Rudy Go! Go Rudy Go!
The man should send you flowers!
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William769 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-25-07 03:34 PM
Response to Reply #44
79. The repukes will Never nominate him.
Problem solved.
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MGKrebs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 05:48 PM
Response to Reply #29
61. As many here often point out, national polls like this are not very predictive,
because we vote state by state. A candidate may focus on say, six or eight states and get damn near enough votes to win the election. And in 48 states, the winner of the popular vote- even if you only win by one vote, gets ALL the delegates.

I know you know that, it just needed to be said.
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skipos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 10:05 PM
Response to Reply #61
71. You know Dems have an electoral disadvantage now, right?
The Gore states plus New Hampshire in 2000 = Dem victory. In 2008 = Dem loss.

I have done a bit of anaylsis on state trends and all that, and it looks like in 2008, if the popular vote is about 50/50, the electoral map will look like Gore states + NH, and mean a Dem loss. Nevada is the next most likely state for Dems to win. If they won the Gore states, NH and NV, it would be a tie.

All this is based on trends, so I know it could turn out to be wrong.
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MGKrebs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-25-07 11:47 AM
Response to Reply #71
73. Why is that? Is it a change in # of reps due to the census?
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skipos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-25-07 12:21 PM
Response to Reply #73
74. Not sure.
I've never looked at which states have more evs now.

If you are interested, check out these rounded numbers for the last 5 elections. For example, "77d" means that the District of Columbia was voted 77% more for the Dem than the national average in 1988.

1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004

STRONG DEM (183 electoral votes)
District of Columbia: 77d, 70d, 67d, 76d, 82d
Massachusetts: 16d (Dukakis P), 13d, 25d, 27d, 28d (Kerry P)
Rhode Island: 19d, 12d, 24d, 29d, 23d
Vermont: 4d, 10d, 14d, 9d, 23d
New York: 12d, 10d, 20d (Kemp vp) 24d, 21d
Maryland: 5d, 9d, 7d, 16d, 15d
Connecticut: 3d, 1d, 10d, 17d (Lieberman VP) 13d
Illinois: 6d, 9d, 9d, 12d, 13d
California: 4d, 8d, 4d, 11d, 12d
Maine: 4d, 3d, 12d, 5d, 11d
Hawaii: 17d, 6d, 17d, 18d, 11d
Delaware: 5r, 3d, 7d, 13d, 10d
Washington: 9d, 6d, 4d, 5d, 10d
New Jersey: 6r, 3r, 9d, 15d, 10d

LIKELY DEM (49 electoral votes)
Michigan: 1r, 2d, 5d, 5d, 6d
Pennsylvania: 5d, 4d, 1d, 4d, 5d
Oregon: 12d, 4d, 1r, 1r, 7d
Minnesota: 15d, 6d, 8d, 2d, 6d

SWING STATES (26 electoral votes)
New Hampshire: 19r, 4r, 1r, 2r, 4d
Wisconsin: 11d, 1r, 2d, 1r, 3d
Iowa: 18d, 1d, 2d, 1r, 2D
New Mexico: 3d, 3d, 1r, 1r, 2D

WEAK REP, TRENDING DEM (14 electoral votes)
Nevada: 13r, 3r, 8r, 4r, 1r
Colorado: 1r, 1r, 10r, 9r, 3r

LIKELY REP, TRENDING DEM (13 electoral votes)
Virginia: 13r, 10r, 10r, 9r, 6r

LIKELY REP( 74 electoral votes)
Florida: 15r, 8r, 3r, 1r, 3r
Ohio: 3r, 4r, 2r, 4r, 1d
Missouri: 4d, 5d, 2r, 4r, 5r
Arkansas: 6r, 12d(Clinton P), 8d (Clinton P), 6r, 7r
Arizona: 13r, 8r, 6r, 7r, 8r

STRONG REP (167 electoral votes)
North Carolina: 9r, 6r, 13r, 13r, 10r (Edwards VP)
West Virginia: 12d, 7d, 6d, 7r, 10r
Tennessee: 9r, 1r (Gore VP) 6r (Gore VP) 4r (Gore P) 12r
Louisiana: 2r, 1r, 4d, 8r, 12r
Georgia: 13r, 5r, 10r, 12r, 14r
South Carolina: 16r, 14r, 14r, 16r, 15r
Mississippi: 13r, 14r, 14r, 17r, 17r
Kentucky: 4r, 2r, 8r, 16r, 17r
Montana: 2d, 3r, 11r, 26r, 18r
Indiana: 12r (Quayle VP), 12r (Quayle VP), 14r, 16r, 18r
South Dakota: 1d,9r, 12r, 23r, 19r
Texas: 5r (HW Bush P vs. Bentsen VP) 10r (HW Bush P) 13r, 22r (Bush P), 20r (Bush P)
Kansas: 6r, 11r, 27r (Dole P) 21r 23r
Alaska: 16r, 15r, 26r, 31r, 23r
Alabama: 12r, 12r, 15r, 15r, 23r
North Dakota: 5r, 18r, 15r, 28r, 25r
Oklahoma: 9r, 14r, 16r, 22r, 29r
Nebraska: 13r, 23r, 27r, 30r, 30r
Idaho: 18r, 19r, 27r, 40r, 36r
Wyoming: 15r, 11r, 22r, 41r (Cheney VP), 37r (Cheney VP)
Utah: 26r, 24r, 30r, 41r, 43r
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-25-07 05:02 PM
Response to Reply #74
86. At best OH is a weak GOP state, more likely it is now a swing state (nt)
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skipos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-25-07 05:27 PM
Response to Reply #86
89. Ohio has been consistently, slightly Repub in since 88
except for the last election. Is it a trend, or a one time event... no way to know yet. The OH Repubs were as corrupt as you could get. The GOP under Nixon and Agnew was horrible, but voters forgave them by 1980 and Reagan won big. Hopeully Stickland and Brown can keep them happy.

Percent that Ohio was more Dem or Repub than the national average...
88, 92, 96, 00, 04
Ohio: 3r, 4r, 2r, 4r, 1d
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-25-07 05:38 PM
Response to Reply #89
92. Question
What is the measure you are using to determine the percentage a state is vs. the national?

Registered Democrats vs. Republicans? Overall votes for each?

I am confused because Clinton won OH in 92 and 96 and Kerry should have won it in 2004
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skipos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-25-07 06:40 PM
Response to Reply #92
93. I am comparing the popular vote in a state to the
popular vote in the country. So if Kerry lost by 2% nationally, but won a specific state by 2%, that would equal 4d.
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-26-07 10:35 AM
Response to Reply #93
103. Ok, I see. Just wanted to make sure we're looking at the same numbers (nt)
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Clarkansas Donating Member (701 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-25-07 07:21 PM
Response to Reply #73
94. Yes, that is it.
Edited on Wed Apr-25-07 07:30 PM by Clarkansas
I am not sure why anyone is debating the fact that the electoral college is favoring Republicans more than it used to.

Take a look at http://www.270towin.com/

In 1988 Dukakis took 111 electoral votes. If he won those states in 2008, he would have 104.
In 1996 Clinton took 379 electoral votes. If he won those states in 2008, he would have 376.
In 2000 Gore took 266 electoral votes. If he won those states in 2008, he would have 260.

You can see that the value of states we typically win has gone down a little bit. It doesn't sound like a lot, but we know what a few electoral votes can mean. In most elections it won't matter, in close elections in may matter.

Edit to add this info from 270towin.com: Electoral Vote changes for 2004 based on 2000 Census:
<+2: AZ, FL, GA, TX>,
<+1: CA, CO, NV, NC>,
<-1: CT, IL, IN, MI, MS, OH, OK, WI>
<-2: NY, PA>
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MGKrebs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-26-07 06:39 AM
Response to Reply #94
100. Interesting. Thanks for the info.
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-25-07 12:57 PM
Response to Reply #71
77. GOP is going down in OH. Every Dem candiate is winning or tied
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William769 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-25-07 03:35 PM
Response to Reply #71
80. Then what happened in the last election?
Edited on Wed Apr-25-07 03:36 PM by William769
According to you we should have never gained the Hpuse or the Senate.
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skipos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-25-07 04:12 PM
Response to Reply #80
82. Easy there.
All I am talking about is the electoral disadvantage that Dems have. The house and the seate are not chosen by the electoral college last I checked.
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William769 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-25-07 04:40 PM
Response to Reply #82
83. But the numbers would be the same.
Edited on Wed Apr-25-07 04:41 PM by William769
It stands to reason if someone takes the electoral college in any state thats because they got the most votes, rarely is it the opposite. So I will ask again , why did we win the last election?
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skipos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-25-07 04:50 PM
Response to Reply #83
84. I am talking about Presidential elections
and the electoral college. Neither had anything to do with 2006. I am not sure what you are trying to say.
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William769 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-25-07 04:56 PM
Response to Reply #84
85. has everything to do with 2006.
If they didn't have the numbers in 2006 to at least hold on to any part of Congress, they damn sure don't have an electoral college advantage. the two go hand in hand. Also in 2006 we gained a hell a lot of seats in State houses! Your argument of a electoral college disadvantage is well something a right wing shrill would say with a straight face.
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skipos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-25-07 05:21 PM
Response to Reply #85
87. Aw jeeze, lay off the insults, will ya?
IN A CLOSE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION (WHERE THE POPULAR VOTE IS EXTREMELY CLOSE)
REPUBLICANS HAVE AN ADVANTAGE IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE THAT THEY DID NOT HAVE IN 2000.

Gore states plus NH would have won in 2000. Gore states plus NH in 2008 will not win.

States that lean Dem (264 electoral votes)
District of Columbia: 77d, 70d, 67d, 76d, 82d
Massachusetts: 16d (Dukakis P), 13d, 25d, 27d, 28d (Kerry P)
Rhode Island: 19d, 12d, 24d, 29d, 23d
Vermont: 4d, 10d, 14d, 9d, 23d
New York: 12d, 10d, 20d (Kemp vp) 24d, 21d
Maryland: 5d, 9d, 7d, 16d, 15d
Connecticut: 3d, 1d, 10d, 17d (Lieberman VP) 13d
Illinois: 6d, 9d, 9d, 12d, 13d
California: 4d, 8d, 4d, 11d, 12d
Maine: 4d, 3d, 12d, 5d, 11d
Hawaii: 17d, 6d, 17d, 18d, 11d
Delaware: 5r, 3d, 7d, 13d, 10d
Washington: 9d, 6d, 4d, 5d, 10d
New Jersey: 6r, 3r, 9d, 15d, 10d
Michigan: 1r, 2d, 5d, 5d, 6d
Pennsylvania: 5d, 4d, 1d, 4d, 5d
Oregon: 12d, 4d, 1r, 1r, 7d
Minnesota: 15d, 6d, 8d, 2d, 6d
New Hampshire: 19r, 4r, 1r, 2r, 4d
Wisconsin: 11d, 1r, 2d, 1r, 3d
Iowa: 18d, 1d, 2d, 1r, 2D
New Mexico: 3d, 3d, 1r, 1r, 2D

States that lean Repub (274 EVS)
Nevada: 13r, 3r, 8r, 4r, 1r
Colorado: 1r, 1r, 10r, 9r, 3r
Virginia: 13r, 10r, 10r, 9r, 6r
Florida: 15r, 8r, 3r, 1r, 3r
Ohio: 3r, 4r, 2r, 4r, 1d
Missouri: 4d, 5d, 2r, 4r, 5r
Arkansas: 6r, 12d(Clinton P), 8d (Clinton P), 6r, 7r
Arizona: 13r, 8r, 6r, 7r, 8r
North Carolina: 9r, 6r, 13r, 13r, 10r (Edwards VP)
West Virginia: 12d, 7d, 6d, 7r, 10r
Tennessee: 9r, 1r (Gore VP) 6r (Gore VP) 4r (Gore P) 12r
Louisiana: 2r, 1r, 4d, 8r, 12r
Georgia: 13r, 5r, 10r, 12r, 14r
South Carolina: 16r, 14r, 14r, 16r, 15r
Mississippi: 13r, 14r, 14r, 17r, 17r
Kentucky: 4r, 2r, 8r, 16r, 17r
Montana: 2d, 3r, 11r, 26r, 18r
Indiana: 12r (Quayle VP), 12r (Quayle VP), 14r, 16r, 18r
South Dakota: 1d,9r, 12r, 23r, 19r
Texas: 5r (HW Bush P vs. Bentsen VP) 10r (HW Bush P) 13r, 22r (Bush P), 20r (Bush P)
Kansas: 6r, 11r, 27r (Dole P) 21r 23r
Alaska: 16r, 15r, 26r, 31r, 23r
Alabama: 12r, 12r, 15r, 15r, 23r
North Dakota: 5r, 18r, 15r, 28r, 25r
Oklahoma: 9r, 14r, 16r, 22r, 29r
Nebraska: 13r, 23r, 27r, 30r, 30r
Idaho: 18r, 19r, 27r, 40r, 36r
Wyoming: 15r, 11r, 22r, 41r (Cheney VP), 37r (Cheney VP)
Utah: 26r, 24r, 30r, 41r, 43r
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William769 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-25-07 05:23 PM
Response to Reply #87
88. You keep harping on 2000.
Edited on Wed Apr-25-07 05:25 PM by William769
Get up to speed, it's 2007 now! A lot has changed.

ON EDIT: that election was also stolen, would you not agree? They don't have that advantage this time around.
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skipos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-25-07 05:29 PM
Response to Reply #88
90. Look at the data. If you disagree, great.
This is a pointless discussion.
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William769 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-25-07 05:34 PM
Response to Reply #90
91. Your right, This is a pointless discussion
Because you have to take Florida and Ohio out of you formulary. Your just mad cause you got caught.
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skipos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-25-07 07:56 PM
Response to Reply #91
96. Tisk tisk. Still coming with the insults.
Edited on Wed Apr-25-07 07:57 PM by skipos
The new post (94) above explains it better than I could.
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William769 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-26-07 08:52 AM
Response to Reply #96
102. Doesn't explain anything.
Onething I don't understand is, if all is lost why even be here?
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Clarkansas Donating Member (701 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-25-07 07:22 PM
Response to Reply #80
95. See my post above.
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Clark2008 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 03:10 PM
Response to Reply #1
26. I think you're both wrong: President Thompson.
Edited on Tue Apr-24-07 03:10 PM by Clark2008
Mark my words (unless we come up with a better alternative).
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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 03:25 PM
Response to Reply #1
31. Nah. We're going to kick Giuliani's butt.
Actually, I think his GOP opponents will do most of the kicking for us.

By the time autumn rolls around, a lot more people will know about Giuliani, will have heard him speak -- or try to speak -- at rallies and events, and his numbers will keep falling. It may be gradual, but they're going to fall.

For 2008, get ready to hang the blue balloons.

We're going to win.
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MannyGoldstein Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 02:21 PM
Response to Original message
3. Rasmussen: Obama Has Caught Up
Rasmussen - which seems to have the best track record on predicting elections - has Clinton and Obama tied at 32%, Edwards at 17%. Obama has slowly but surely caught up, despite Mrs. Clinton's years of experience and name recognition.

In the general election, Mrs. Clinton would have an enormous problem "Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 50% and unfavorably by 49%. Obama’s numbers are a bit stronger—59% favorable and 34% unfavorable.", says Rasmussen.

Add to all this the sound trouncing that Obama gave Clinton in first-quarter primary fundraising, and a pretty clear picture emerges.
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ElizabethDC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 02:27 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. The Rasmussen poll is a national poll
and the primary isn't a national election. (Besides, Hillary is still ahead in all the other national polls).
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 02:36 PM
Response to Reply #3
11. A little bit of truthiness...
In fact Hillary outraised Obama by $1,000,000...

Granted Obama's totals were impressive, but he hardly trounced her...
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MannyGoldstein Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 02:45 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. Read Carefully
As I said, Obama trounced Clinton in funds raised for the PRIMARY. Mrs. Clinton got a little more cash in total - but much of it can only be used in the general election. And many, many more of her donors are now maxed out.
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 03:03 PM
Response to Reply #13
20. Sigh
"As I said, Obama trounced Clinton in funds raised for the PRIMARY"

He raised $5M more.

"Mrs. Clinton got a little more cash in total"

She has alot more cash on hand. If $5M is a trouncing, what is having twice that amount?




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wyldwolf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 03:05 PM
Response to Reply #20
22. what is having twice that amount?
A thrashing?
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 03:23 PM
Response to Reply #22
30. Possibly an obliteration? Annihilation? Bifabrication?
Its a sliding scale ;-)
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Captain_Nemo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 02:28 PM
Response to Original message
6. Hillary is the only one who can solve the problems
Hillary is experienced, feminist and dedicated to good leadership.
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MannyGoldstein Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 02:32 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. Yes, She's Led on So many Major Issues
Name one.

I can't - other than the big one that failed (no insurance-CEO-left-behind-HillaryCare). Other than that, it's a bunch of little feelgood things.
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Captain_Nemo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 02:34 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. She beat the repubs for years at their own game and besides
name me one thing tha tObama has done that tells you Obama can solve the three pressing issues at hand:

global warming
Iraq
economy (US)

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wyldwolf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 02:34 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. name one? I'll name seven
Edited on Tue Apr-24-07 02:35 PM by wyldwolf
1. She has introduced legislation to tie Congressional salary increases to an increase in the minimum wage.

2. She helped pass legislation that encouraged investment to create jobs in struggling communities through the Renewal Communities program.

3. She authored legislation that has been enacted to improve quality and lower the cost of prescription drugs and to protect our food supply from bioterrorism.

4. She sponsored legislation to increase America’s commitment to fighting the global HIV/AIDS crisis

5. The Best Pharmaceuticals for Children Act, to ensure the safety of prescription drugs for children.

6. She co-sponsored the 21st Century Nanotechnology Research and Development Act, which encourages research and development in the field of nanotechnology.

7. She included language in an energy bill to provide tax exempt bonding authority for environmentally conscious construction projects, and introduced an amendment that funds job creation to repair, renovate and modernize public schools.
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MannyGoldstein Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 02:42 PM
Response to Reply #9
12. Let's Put These In Perspective
1. What's the total funding of all of these measures, as a % of the federal budget?
2. Which of these took political courage?

When it comes to simple bread and butter stuff - like not supporting insane wars built on lies, wholesale offshoring of US jobs, and enforcing the Fourth Amendment to the Constitution - she walks with the Republicans.

Most Americans realize what her game is.
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wyldwolf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 02:47 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. LOL! You ask to name ONE issue. I name SEVEN. You say, "but those don't count!"
:rofl:
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MannyGoldstein Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 02:51 PM
Response to Reply #14
16. Which Part of MAJOR Issue Can You Not Read?
I clearly wrote 'major' issue.
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wyldwolf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 02:56 PM
Response to Reply #16
18. "Major" is a subjective term. Anything she leads on will be less than major for you.
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MannyGoldstein Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 03:02 PM
Response to Reply #18
19. I Quantified It - Will You?
As I inferred in my earlier post, it's an issue that influences significant spending, or requires political courage.

What's your (quantifiable) definition?
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wyldwolf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 03:04 PM
Response to Reply #19
21. you quantified what you feel the definition of "major" is.
But I'll bet the people who benefited from what she has done would have a totally different take on it than you.
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MannyGoldstein Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 03:09 PM
Response to Reply #21
24. I Guess That Means You Won't Quantify It n/t
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wyldwolf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 03:10 PM
Response to Reply #24
25. I did quantify it
Edited on Tue Apr-24-07 03:10 PM by wyldwolf
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Captain_Nemo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 05:05 PM
Response to Reply #25
56. Just keep replying with the facts on her abillities and record
What I love most about her is that in this era of hatred for women and feminism Hillary proudly declared herself a feminist.

A brave move with this MSM!
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jakem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 07:01 PM
Response to Reply #56
66. She even declared herself a woman! what bravery!
and southern! and black! and... and...

:puke:
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Captain_Nemo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 05:04 PM
Response to Reply #14
55. Hillary hatred has been with us since the early 90's now its infiltirated
into our own party. Sad, sas.
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rodeodance Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 09:43 PM
Response to Reply #55
70. our own party does better than then the other party many times.
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 02:50 PM
Response to Reply #12
15. Ring up any fire engine company in New York City...
And ask them why after some booed her at a 9/11 benefit concert shortly after the attack occurred...they supported her reelection bid to the Senate, and why so many are lining up to support her Presidential bid...

Ask them about her leadership after 9/11, when she was instrumental in getting money to the city, and particularly to first responders...ask them to compare her leadership on those issues to Guiliani's...

Ask families of National Guard units for whom Hillary has been tirelessly working to get them the same benefits as regular army units serving in Iraq...

Ask families of children not covered by health insurance whether they appreciate her leadership working to get ALL children covered under the SCHIP program...

Ask families of adopted children about her leadership getting the Adoption and Safe Families Act passed, after which adoptions skyrocketed, abused children had new protections, and children with disabilities again became a priority in the system...

I could go on...

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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 02:56 PM
Response to Reply #12
17. Political courage?
Like when a sideshow candidate who has been promising impeachment finally does so because his Presidential campaign is languishing?

"like not supporting insane wars built on lies"

Seeks the same basic withdraw plans as other top tier candidates.

"
wholesale offshoring of US jobs"

Voted against CAFTA and has come out against NAFTA. She has voted for some free trade agreements but against others.


"
Most Americans realize what her game is."

Amazing in itself when so many go to such great lengths to distort her game.
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MannyGoldstein Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 03:07 PM
Response to Reply #17
23. Be Real.
She supported the Iraq war - many other Democrats did not. She was wrong. The others were right. That war has cost tens or hundreds of thousands of lives, and $2 trillion or so. That's a big, big mistake. But she still claims that it wasn't a mistake.

She is on record as being strongly in favor of permanent 'normalization' of trade relations with China, which is the big fish on outsourcing.

Her record is her record.
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wyldwolf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 03:14 PM
Response to Reply #23
28. see how it ALWAYS comes back to the Iraq war? And they say they're not one issue voters
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 03:33 PM
Response to Reply #23
33. "But she still claims that it wasn't a mistake"
Except when she does

"
Several advisers, friends and donors said in interviews that they had urged her to call her vote a mistake in order to appease antiwar Democrats, who play a critical role in the nominating process. Yet Mrs. Clinton herself, backed by another faction, never wanted to apologize — even if she viewed the war as a mistake — arguing that an apology would be a gimmick.

In the end, she settled on language that was similar to Senator John Kerry’s when he was the Democratic nominee in 2004: that if she had known in 2002 what she knows now about Iraqi weaponry, she would never have voted for the Senate resolution authorizing force."

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/18/us/politics/18clinton.html?ex=1177560000&en=ab9f0843be2a0eb9&ei=5070

Besides even if she said I was mistaken you wouldn't give her credit for it. You won't even give her credit now.

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Cameron27 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 03:48 PM
Response to Reply #33
39. I never saw this...
"Yet Mrs. Clinton herself, backed by another faction, never wanted to apologize — even if she viewed the war as a mistake — arguing that an apology would be a gimmick."

She's absolutely right and I respect her for saying that. Apologies don't merit bonus points, so although I still fault her for voting yes, I do admire that sentiment.
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BeyondGeography Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 03:46 PM
Response to Reply #23
38. She's also not a terrorist enabler like some other unnamed Democrats
Edited on Tue Apr-24-07 03:46 PM by BeyondGeography
<Clinton also sought to draw a contrast with some of her Democratic rivals on the issue of terrorism. "Some people may be running who may tell you that we don't face a real threat from terrorism," she said. "I am not one of those.">

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/02/clinton_comes_to_south_carolin.html

May she lose and lose big.
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 03:52 PM
Response to Reply #38
40. You think claiming there is no terrorist threat is an election winner?
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BeyondGeography Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 03:55 PM
Response to Reply #40
42. There you are again, missing the point
I can always count on you for that, can't I?

Back to HRC's gratuitous I-am-the-hawk-here-vote-for-me smear: Who exactly is she talking about? I'd like to know.
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 04:01 PM
Response to Reply #42
45. You would have to ask her.
I doubt she was referring to Obama or Edwards for the simple reason that they all have the same view of combatting terrorism which is law enforcement, diplomacy while leaving military action as a last resort.

Hillary has the unenviable position of having to prove that she (as a woman) is tough enough for the job.
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BeyondGeography Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 04:03 PM
Response to Reply #45
46. Which doesn't excuse her tapping into a Republican stereotype
i.e. "Democrats as wimps," to further her own political goals.

Naughty, naughty.
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 04:17 PM
Response to Reply #46
48. I think you're ready too much into it.
Its not like I took Obama's comments regarding her and the VP role as some kind of tapping into sexist feelings.

But to each his own.

I am just excited today because numbers showing a downward trend for Rudy and a upward trend for Democrats is making the general election look brighter and brighter no matter who ends up the nominee.
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BeyondGeography Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 04:25 PM
Response to Reply #48
50. We really would have to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory it seems
but it's still very early. That and we've lost seven of the last ten presidential elections (six, if you give 2000 to the guy with the most votes in Florida...).
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 04:30 PM
Response to Reply #50
51. Oh its early and there can be no overconfidence. But optimism hath sprung!
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MannyGoldstein Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 04:59 PM
Response to Reply #38
52. 'Some People Say...'
Another marvelous rhetorical device from the Clintons.
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 05:27 PM
Response to Reply #52
60. You're right.
Surely there was a more interesting way to put down Kucinich.
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Captain_Nemo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 05:11 PM
Response to Reply #17
57. I think ultimately it is scary (even for the liberals among us) to have a female
President of the USA.

It cuts to the core of what people are familiar with. It is major change. Finally.
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Captain_Nemo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 05:03 PM
Response to Reply #12
54. What's her game? As you call it?
Why the implication of a conniving and manipulative plan?

She is a feminist. She won NY State as senator twice - and handily!

She fended off the neocon attack dogs who were at her throat for over 8 years.

She can lead.
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Captain_Nemo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 05:00 PM
Response to Reply #9
53. Love this! Thanks.
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jillan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 02:34 PM
Response to Original message
10. The poll I want to see is the one taken on Friday
After the first debate, after all of the candidates are side by side.

That is when I will start paying attention to polls.
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Clark2008 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 03:14 PM
Response to Reply #10
27. And the vast majority of Americans won't even bother until
fall.

Paying attention to the election, that is.
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jillan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 03:34 PM
Response to Reply #27
34. So true - but the sad thing is
Is that the MSM has already told us that this race is between Hillary & Barack. With Edwards close by.

People won't even have to think. The talking heads are doing it for them.

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Cameron27 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 03:55 PM
Response to Reply #27
43. You're so right!
When I start to quote poll stats, my kids look at me like I've gone completely nuts. (I've stopped doing it---I hate the ridicule of children)
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ShortnFiery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 03:30 PM
Response to Original message
32. She's toast, but the political elites think that they are the only ones who vote so we must put up
with all the hype. :eyes:
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Captain_Nemo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 05:17 PM
Response to Reply #32
58. So I'm an elite for voting for the feminist candidate??!
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ShortnFiery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 09:33 PM
Response to Reply #58
68. A *feminist* candidate does not reference "her husband" in every other sentence.
Edited on Tue Apr-24-07 09:33 PM by ShortnFiery
A true feminist candidate stands on her own record. Albeit I was married to an AD Marine Officer 18 of the 20 years he served in The Corps, I never "wore his rank" like many officer's wives (who needed a life).

In fact, the sweetest complement I was ever given (and given often), "You're so nice and approachable. You don't behave at all like an officer's wife.

HRC's behavior reminds me of the bimbo Major and Colonel's "princess wives" who often threw their husband's rank around at every opportunity ... manipulating/intimidating the company grade officer's wives to serve their every social need. :thumbsdown:

No, IMO, HRC leans far too much on "her husband" to be considered a tried and true feminist. :(

I give my pre-teen daughter articles about Nancy Pelosi because, IMO, she is a true feminist / and feminine leader. Nancy Pelosi would make an outstanding woman President, not spoiled HRC USING the career of "her husband" to propel her to the WH. It won't work. No way, no how.
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churchofreality Donating Member (545 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 03:39 PM
Response to Original message
35. Hillary will kick ass in the debate thursday!!!!
She will outclass everyone.
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bigdarryl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 03:53 PM
Response to Reply #35
41. Don't bet on it. i predict Richardson will out shine all of them because he...
has extensive experience on foreign policy and has as Governor of Mexico DONE things as to talking about doing things as most Senators say.
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 04:19 PM
Response to Reply #41
49. This could also be the 1st time people hear of Richardson.
A win here could do wonders for him getting out of the 2nd tier.
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ShortnFiery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 09:37 PM
Response to Reply #35
69. See, that's the problem. A confident woman does NOT have to out bully the men.
HRC is not classy ... she swaggers and USES her husband to prop her up. That shows a definite flaw in character. In fact, I see no sense of humbleness in her at all.

You don't achieve as a women, even in The Military, by out swaggering the men. This "tough gal" routine is wearing thin for HRC. I hope she faces reality in the near future. :shrug:
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MasonJar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 03:40 PM
Response to Original message
36. No GOPer is going to win unless they steal again or unless we
disparage our own to death.
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Clark2008 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 05:27 PM
Response to Reply #36
59. I wouldn't be so sure.
We don't have the machine they do within the corporate media structure.

Take a quick look at how the candidates are framed:

Ghouliani - 9/11 hero
F. Thompson - moderatish who appeals to fundie conservatives
McCan't - war hero
Romeny - a conservative from a liberal state. wow!

And then there's what they say about ours:

H. Clinton - everyone hates her
Obama - he's black and has the same middle name as a dictator we ousted. Horrors!
Edwards - Who? Oh, yeah, that Ken Doll.

This is exactly the way it appears to voters who aren't political junkies. This is what they see in their "news."

Take a step back and listen to the rhetoric already out there. Even intelligent people fall for this shit because they actually believe the media is "liberal" and/or really tells the truth or else it couldn't be printed or said on air.

I really feel the only way for us to win is for a dark horse to appear from near nowhere, leaving the corporate media talking points in the dust.

I'm sorry I have such little faith that a Dem will be president this next time. I'm probably just feeling the malaise that Kerry, a smart, caring man who would have made a great president, couldn't beat that dufus in office now (and Gore did beat the dufus, but still isn't president).

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IChing Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 05:53 PM
Response to Original message
62. Who the hell is "Moore Method" survey?
I can't find any stats about this poll or even a link to who they are.
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 06:21 PM
Response to Reply #62
63. I've never heard of them either.
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IChing Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 06:52 PM
Response to Reply #63
64. They used land line phones only in their survey. +-5%
Many Californians use cell or VOIP only.
The reliability of even your poll is questionable.

In my area she is not popular with Democrats or Republicans.

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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-25-07 10:51 AM
Response to Reply #64
72. "Many Californians use cell or VOIP only." That demographic is tiny
It is also more likely to include single, young people that don't own their own homes.

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=276

The percentages of the electorate that demographic(even more so in CA) that votes in general elections is tiny.

http://sync.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=141x25797

Forget about the primaries.

"In my area she is not popular with Democrats or Republicans."

In my area no one has even heard of most of the candidates. Which is why I don't rely on my social circle for voting trends.


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IndianaGreen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 06:55 PM
Response to Original message
65. Hillary is only polling 31% in California?
Her support is soft indeed, and she is in a heap of trouble! 69% of Democrats don't want her!
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w4rma Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-24-07 07:03 PM
Response to Reply #65
67. Yup. It appears to be her peak. Any candidate that can overcome her 1/3 of primary voters wins.
I think she's going to have to be attacked by other candidates to whittle her 1/3 down to 1/4 or less.
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AtomicKitten Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-25-07 12:47 PM
Response to Reply #67
75. I hear if you close your eyes and wish really, really hard ....
I love the cackling of the anti-HRCites here at DU, plotting and scheming, trying to manipulate each and every poll to call her early demise. Funny stuff.
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-25-07 12:55 PM
Response to Reply #75
76. Well you see AK, having a 1/3 of the vote is worse than having a 1/4 or 1/6
Its the new math!

:sarcasm:
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AtomicKitten Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-25-07 03:25 PM
Response to Reply #76
78. carry the 4 ...
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William769 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-25-07 03:38 PM
Response to Reply #65
81. By how you are looking at it then 79% don't want Obama!
Edited on Wed Apr-25-07 03:38 PM by William769
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demo dutch Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-25-07 08:52 PM
Response to Reply #81
99. Nice guy - zero experience!
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demo dutch Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-25-07 08:49 PM
Response to Original message
97. I'm glad to hear it. The country can not afford a Prez "learning on the job"
Edited on Wed Apr-25-07 08:51 PM by demo dutch
We need experience and leadership!
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AtomicKitten Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-25-07 08:50 PM
Response to Original message
98. I've gotten to the point
where I will ROFLMAO if Hillary wins the nomination.

It would be karmic justice to all the nasty shit spewed about her here at DU.
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wyldwolf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-26-07 07:46 AM
Response to Reply #98
101. I was just commenting offline to another DUer that the extreme anti-Hillary bile...
... on DU is actually creating Clinton supporters - or at least making her the second choice of many. I see people defending her now that weren't Hillary fans previously.
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-26-07 10:37 AM
Response to Reply #101
104. Classic overreach...
Checkout this thread...http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2822946

There are quite a few "she's not my candidate but this is bunk" posts.
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