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ARG Polls: California, Florida, Michigan...Hillary holds wide leads in all three

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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 10:24 AM
Original message
ARG Polls: California, Florida, Michigan...Hillary holds wide leads in all three
Edited on Wed May-09-07 10:27 AM by SaveElmer
California

Hillary 37
Obama 28
Edwards 15


Florida

Hillary 45
Obama 17
Edwards 15


Michigan

Hillary 38
Obama 25
Edwards 14

http://americanresearchgroup.com/


Interesting note: Poll also has Romney ahead in Michigan
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durrrty libby Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 10:31 AM
Response to Original message
1. Awesome. Keep it up Hillary. Our next president
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Larkspur Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 10:33 AM
Response to Original message
2. Must be the low info voters poll
Anyone who reviewed Hillary's record would not be supportive of her.
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 10:36 AM
Response to Reply #2
4. Typical "progressive" arrogance...
Hillary supporters must be ignorant!!

:rofl:


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William769 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 10:37 AM
Response to Reply #2
5. You know it's funny when there is a poll not supportive of her, it's treated as gospel here.
Edited on Wed May-09-07 10:37 AM by William769
But when it's good news for Mr's Clinton there must be something wrong with the poll. Can you all at least be consistent? Sheesh! :eyes:
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skipos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 10:45 AM
Response to Reply #5
18. She is weaker in the general election polls compared to Obama and Edwards
and strong in the primary polls.

That seems pretty consistent to me.
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 10:48 AM
Response to Reply #18
20. She is stronger than Obama...
In the latest Marist poll...to be accurate about it
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skipos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 10:58 AM
Response to Reply #20
24. Sure, but there are VERY FEW recent polls with her outperforming Edwards AND Obama
I finially saw one, and it is the only one I have seen.

In the general election polls...
Obama often outperforms Edwards and Hillary.
Edwards often outperforms Obama and Hillary.
Hillary usually underperforms both Edwards and Obama.
Hillary occasionally will outperform one or the other, rarely both.

In favorable/unfavorable polls Hillary is ALWAYS worse than Obama and Edwards.

The number of people committed to voting against Hillary is ALWAYS higher than the number committed to voting against Obama and Edwards.

That seems pretty accurate, correct?
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 11:07 AM
Response to Reply #24
29. Not disputing the accuracy of the poll taking...
Edited on Wed May-09-07 11:10 AM by SaveElmer
Since you think it is very important how Hillary does against Republicans as opposed to Obama and Edwards, I know you would want to be accurate in pointing out those cases where she is in fact showing greater strength than them...
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skipos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 11:17 AM
Response to Reply #29
34. As I said, I have seen ONE recent poll with her outperforming
Obama and Edwards in the general election.
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 11:18 AM
Response to Reply #34
35. But you do acknowledge
What I said is accurate?
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skipos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 11:27 AM
Response to Reply #35
36. Yup. nt
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Dawgs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 10:49 AM
Response to Reply #5
21. We hear the same thing from Hillary supporters, but nice try.
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ElizabethDC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 10:37 AM
Response to Reply #2
7. I've reviewed her record, and I'm supporting her
and I'll be voting for her in Florida's early primary. :hi:
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William769 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 10:38 AM
Response to Reply #7
8. Me too!
:hi:
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pnwmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 10:41 AM
Response to Reply #2
10. She's not my top choice but her overall record is very good
and I'll be happy to support her IF she ends up being the party's nominee.
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wyldwolf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 11:03 AM
Response to Reply #2
26. ooh... the " low info voters" poll... LOL!
That odd little numbers-crunching thing Mydd did to downplay Clinton's numbers.
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 12:54 PM
Response to Reply #2
37. Ahhh yes its the stupid voters. No wonder "progressives" kick ass in elections!
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William769 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 10:34 AM
Response to Original message
3. Fantastic news!
And with Florida moving it's primary date up, I get happier by the day!|
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w4rma Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 10:37 AM
Response to Original message
6. Florida doesn't matter. That primary won't count because they moved it before the earliest day. (nt)
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William769 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 10:39 AM
Response to Reply #6
9. Now that takes the cake!
You all just crack me up sometimes. :rofl:
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durrrty libby Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 10:42 AM
Response to Reply #9
11. We have our own home-grown idiots too
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w4rma Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 10:42 AM
Response to Reply #9
14. Florida Moves Up Primary Date — Could Force Big Confrontation With Dean
Florida Moves Up Primary Date — Could Force Big Confrontation With Dean
By Eric Kleefeld

CNN reports that the Florida legislature has passed a bill to move their primary up to January 29, a week ahead of the intended "national primary" date of February 5. Now all it needs is GOP Governor Charlie Crist's signature, and it could completely upend the Presidential primary calendar.

Florida has done this despite the fact that both party chairs — the RNC's Mel Martinez, a Floridian himself, and the DNC's Howard Dean — made unsuccessful bids to block the move. Dean has even threatened to give candidates zero delegates from the state if they campaign there.

Key question: Will candidates honor the national edicts against Florida, or will they go there anyway, or campaign through surrogates in some effort to capture a popular vote win there?
http://electioncentral.tpmcafe.com/blog/electioncentral/2007/may/03/florida_moves_up_primary_date_could_force_big_confrontation_with_dean
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 10:44 AM
Response to Reply #14
15. Dean's not an idiot...
He isn't going to disenfranchise Democrats in the what 4th largest state...even if they decided to hold the primary tomorrow!
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w4rma Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 10:45 AM
Response to Reply #15
16. Both Party chairs are making the decision to do so. (nt)
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 10:45 AM
Response to Reply #16
17. I'll eat my hat...
I either one takes away delegates...it ain't gonna happen!!
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JNelson6563 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 11:07 AM
Response to Reply #6
30. No, it will matter
I can tell ya my state chair is ready to throw down with Florida. Every county in MI will have a place reserved for their caucus as early as December of this year.

The way it works is if you break the DNC primary rule you face the threat of losing half your voting delegates at national convention. Larger states that bring large delegations can feel pretty confident that no candidate will submit this demand and risk alienating that state. Florida is one of those states and so is Michigan.

Julie
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w4rma Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 11:13 AM
Response to Reply #30
33. The rules were set before Florida made their decision to further frontload the primary schedule.
Both Party organizations have both already agreed to punish any state, including Florida, that does this.
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JNelson6563 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 01:14 PM
Response to Reply #33
38. I just don't see it happening
And neither does Mark Brewer, our state chair.

What are they going to do, send home half the delegates of the largest states in the nation? I think not. The national parties will not take that risk IMO.

There are stated consequences to keep everyone in line, then there are the subsequent realities. ;-)

Julie--who thinks it's high time someone besides Iowa & NH get some say in these things
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Deep13 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 10:42 AM
Response to Original message
12. "Do you Rudolph Gulianni solemnly swear...."
Hate to be a turd in a punch-bowel, but I just can't see her flipping any red states.
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Nedsdag Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 11:07 AM
Response to Reply #12
28. Exactly!
Edited on Wed May-09-07 11:07 AM by Nedsdag
If her supporters think ANY Democrat--not just Hillary--will carry Florida in the general election, they're crazy.
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roamer65 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 10:42 AM
Response to Original message
13. Here's one vote against her in the Michigan primary/caucus.
Edited on Wed May-09-07 10:43 AM by roamer65
BUT...if she makes it to the general election I will support her.
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Strawman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 10:46 AM
Response to Original message
19. Edwards is raising more money in MI
Edited on Wed May-09-07 10:50 AM by Strawman
and has inroads to labor with Bonior. But he's hardly blowing Hillary Clinton or Obama away in terms of fundraising. I think he raised $147K in the first quarter of 2007 and Hillary Clinton raised $111K in MI. I forget Obama's total.

On the other side, Romney is raking in the cash. I think he was just shy of $1 million in the first quarter of 2007 from Michigan donors. Lots of big money Oakland County types are contributing heavily to him. He's kinda scary. Lots of people in Oakland County who couldn't bring themselves to vote for Bush would probably feel more comfortable voting for him. With his family's roots here and his financial support from people here he could put MI in play more than any other Republican I think.
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roamer65 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 10:51 AM
Response to Reply #19
22. Romney is a Michigan name.
He's riding the coattails of his daddy George, the former governor. I'm sure all the DeVos loving scum are behind Romney.

If Gore doesn't run, I plan on supporting Edwards.
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 10:56 AM
Response to Reply #22
23. Wow...that's interesting...I didn't know that...
Actually explains alot!

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skipos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 11:00 AM
Response to Reply #23
25. Pretty weird considering his daddy was governor about 30 years ago
It shows how stupid people some people are about voting.
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 11:05 AM
Response to Reply #25
27. Well if they are voting Republican...
Isn't that a given! :-)
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Strawman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 11:09 AM
Response to Reply #22
31. If it were just the Devos loving scum
Edited on Wed May-09-07 11:10 AM by Strawman
I don't think we'd have anything to worry about. He got his ass thoroughly trounced.

Out of the top three on our side (HRC, Edwards, Obama), I don't really care who wins. They'll all govern about the same, face the same constraints, and draw from the same pool of people to populate the administration. I'm more worried about them having a working majority in Congress. The rest is hot air.
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roamer65 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-09-07 11:11 AM
Response to Reply #22
32. Here's the main question to ask any Romney supporter.
If he was such as "great governor" in MA, why was he only in the office for one term? Sit back and watch the spin begin...
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