Statistics and reality say get out of Iraq now, not later

Study: Insurgencies like Iraq's usually fail in 10 years

By Jim Michaels, USA TODAY

WASHINGTON — Insurgencies, such as the one the United States is fighting in Iraq, last an average of more than 10 years, according to a study commissioned by the Defense Department.

For the United States, the good news is that rebels lose more often than they win. Chances for stopping an insurgency improve after 10 years, the study shows.

Stopping the violence in Iraq will take years, Pentagon leaders have said. However, there have been few efforts to analyze and quantify insurgencies in order to draw conclusions about Iraq and Afghanistan.

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The Annandale, Va.-based Dupuy Institute is under a Defense Department contract to study insurgencies to help give commanders more information about what works and what doesn't. The study is due to be completed in September.

The military recently produced a new counterinsurgency manual that establishes doctrine for waging a counterinsurgency.

According to the manual, defeating an insurgency requires:

•An understanding of local society;

•Good intelligence about the enemy;

•Establishing security and a rule of law;

•Establishing a long-term commitment.

The new doctrine points out the limits to using overwhelming firepower, which could anger civilians, and the need to find political solutions to win over the population.

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Truck bomb kills 14 in Iraq

By RAVI NESSMAN, Associated Press Writer
2 hours, 43 minutes ago

BAGHDAD - A suicide truck bomb ripped through the Interior Ministry in the relatively peaceful Kurdish city of Irbil on Wednesday, killing 14 people and wounding dozens, officials said.

Kurdish officials blamed al-Qaida-linked insurgents for the first major attack in the regional capital in more than three years.

The bombing came as Vice President Dick Cheney arrived in Baghdad for an unannounced visit that included meetings with top Iraqi government officials, leaders of influential Iraqi factions and the senior U.S. military commander.

About 200 supporters of radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr took to the streets in the southern city of Najaf in protest, carrying banners reading: "The Iraq people reject Cheney's visit."

Cheney's trip was aimed at encouraging rival Iraqi factions to work together to overcome their divisions in the conflict that has claimed the lives of more than 3,370 American troops.

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The explosion in Irbil, 217 miles north of Baghdad, underscored how even relatively safe areas of Iraq were not immune from the violence.

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U.S. Embassy: wear flak jackets, helmets

By ROBERT H. REID, Associated Press Writer
1 hour, 49 minutes ago

BAGHDAD - A sharp increase in mortar attacks on the Green Zone — the one-time oasis of security in Iraq's turbulent capital — has prompted the U.S. Embassy to issue a strict new order telling all employees to wear flak vests and helmets while in unprotected buildings or whenever they are outside.

The order, obtained by The Associated Press, has created a siege mentality among U.S. staff inside the Green Zone following a recent suicide attack on parliament. It has also led to new fears about long-term safety in the place where the U.S. government is building a massive and expensive new embassy.

The situation marks a sharp turnaround for the heavily guarded Green Zone — long viewed as the safest corner of Baghdad with its shops, restaurants, American fast-food outlets and key Iraqi and American government offices.

The security deterioration also holds dire implications for the Iraqi government, which uses the Green Zone as a haven for key meetings crucial to its ability to govern. On Wednesday, for example, Vice President Dick Cheney held meetings in the Green Zone with Iraq's prime minister.
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But the latest attacks have been unnerving because of their frequency, the size of the ordnance and the accuracy of some hits.

Some rounds appear to have been fired from Sunni insurgent strongholds to the south of the Green Zone. Others have come from areas where Shiite militiamen operate.

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QUESTION: Mr. Vice President, following on that if I could first, are you confident that the Iraqis now will not take this two-month break from your conversations?

THE VICE PRESIDENT: I can’t make that prediction Bret. That’s a sovereign issue for them, just as our congressional schedule is a sovereign issue for the United States. But I think they understand the importance of getting on with the business that’s before them.

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05/09/2007

Kerry Tells Cheney to Get Tough with Iraqi Government

"No American soldier should die so that the Iraqi politicians can take a vacation"

WASHINGTON, DC - Senator John Kerry (D-Mass.) issued the following statement today, in response to Vice President's Dick Cheney meetings in Iraq with Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. Both Ambassador Ryan Crocker and a senior Administration official admitted to reporters today that part of the reason behind Cheney's trip is to simply ask the Iraqi Parliament not to take a planned two month vacation this summer, given the country's ongoing civil war. Kerry first spoke out against the Iraqi politicians' vacation in a floor statement last Tuesday.

"It was very disappointing to hear the Vice President say that the Iraqis' decision to take a vacation while our troops are dying is 'a sovereign issue to them.' He should have delivered a much tougher message to the Iraqis, that they must start working overtime to find a political solution to end the violence - not leave things unfinished for two months.


"No American soldier should die so that the Iraqi politicians can take a vacation. An Iraqi Parliament that spends July and August sitting around a swimming pool while their country descends into further unrest and civil war does not deserve America's support. With every passing day it becomes clearer that the US should not be sending our brave troops into the middle of a brutal, chaotic civil war that Iraq's own leaders are unwilling to solve."

This is a strong commitment. But for it to succeed, our commanders say the Iraqis will need our help. So America will change our strategy to help the Iraqis carry out their campaign to put down sectarian violence and bring security to the people of Baghdad. This will require increasing American force levels. So I've committed more than 20,000 additional American troops to Iraq. The vast majority of them -- five brigades -- will be deployed to Baghdad. These troops will work alongside Iraqi units and be embedded in their formations. Our troops will have a well-defined mission: to help Iraqis clear and secure neighborhoods, to help them protect the local population, and to help ensure that the Iraqi forces left behind are capable of providing the security that Baghdad needs.

...For all the talk about the need for a Plan B, war supporters seem reluctant to acknowledge that they’re playing their last chip right now. The current policy is a) exactly what they said they want; and b) exactly what they said would work. There is nothing else. There are no secret backup plans on the president’s desk. They wanted this general, with these battalions, with these conditions. If the plan fails, they’ve failed.

Congressional Republicans have never ceased to amaze me in their capacity for self-delusion, but they really have reached the end of the road here. As many as 60 House Republicans opposed the surge policy when it was announced, but they’ve held their tongue since.

How much longer can that possibly continue?

“No American soldier should die so that the Iraqi politicians can take a vacation. An Iraqi Parliament that spends July and August sitting around a swimming pool while their country descends into further unrest and civil war does not deserve America’s support. With every passing day it becomes clearer that the US should not be sending our brave troops into the middle of a brutal, chaotic civil war that Iraq’s own leaders are unwilling to solve.”

What John said.

HOT AS HELL IN EVERY WAY POSSIBLE. Because the surge is going so well, the U.S. government has directed employees of the U.S. Embassy in the Green Zone in Baghdad to wear protective gear while traveling around the Zone and even while indoors:

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I spoke with a friend based in the Green Zone earlier today, and he says it is already 110 degrees out, making the wearing of such protective gear exceedingly uncomfortable. That makes me wonder if this is not, in fact, exactly the kind of development that will "bring the war home" to the American contractors and administrators trapped within their increasingly fragile bubble in a way that might begin to impact U.S. policy. Already, I am told, there is a sense of impending doom throughout the Green Zone, as people wait for the next spectacular attack. And summer has barely begun; it will only get hotter.