OHIO 2004: Did vote-switching occur in Cuyahoga County?

"In a subset of 166,953 votes, one of every 34 Ohio voters, the Kerry-Bush margin
shifts 6.15% when the population is sorted by outcomes of wrong-precinct voting."

From: How Kerry Votes Were Switched to Bush Votes
http://jqjacobs.net/politics/ohio.html

From the article:

"I define "wrong-precinct voting" as ballots cast with a voting machine for one precinct then counted with a different precinct's ballot order, possibly counted other than as intended. With greater specificity, I define the hyphenated term "cross-vote" as a vote counted other than as intended. Wrong-precinct voting does not result in cross-voting when adjacent precincts have the same ballot order."

"Wrong-precinct voting can occur in several ways. Voters can use their own precinct's ballot at another precinct's voting machine. Additionally, the outcome can be altered if ballots are switched to a different precinct after the voting and before the counting. ....."

"I define "vote-switching" as major candidate cross-voting. One major candidate cross-vote changes the election margin by two votes; as one major candidate loses a vote the other gains the cross-vote. .... Vote-switching results when the two major candidates are collocated in the same ballot order position, either from ballot switching between such precincts or voters cross-voting at such locations."


http://jqjacobs.net/politics/vote_switching.ppt

The article is mostly a prologue to the voting, explaining and showing inequality in probabilities. While much of the statistical analysis is in the Excel files, the question can be addressed: "Did vote-switching occur in Cuyahoga County?"

(NOTE: Definitions herein are specific and those terms have come to be used quite liberally in other writings since 2004, when the hyphenated terms were fresh neologisms, without adherence to the definitions in the article.)

Jan-28-07
OHIO 2004: 6.15% Kerry-Bush vote-switch found in probability study
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x259620

Feb-06-07
Cuyahoga Co. Elections Director Resigns (OH)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=2719564&mesg_id=2719564

Archaic DU, when and where the study started. Perspectives on this issue have changed dramatically, yet some thoughts were right on then, others not.

========

jmknapp Dec-02-04 http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x106743#117088
Certified Cuyahoga Results spreadsheet (Excel)

Here's a spreadsheet which includes .... just-certified official result ....
http://copperas.com/cuyahoga/cuyahogaofficial.zip
Included are polling places and location (lat/lon) of the precincts.

========

AirAmFan Dec-12-04 http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=printer_friendly&forum=203&topic_id=147718
Ohio's 'CATERPILLAR BALLOT': As bad as Florida's Butterfly?
Here on the eve of the scheduled meeting of Ohio's Presidential Electors, I'm amazed that a very curious feature of voting in Ohio has gotten so little publicity. ..."

========
Iceburg Dec-16-04
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=printer_friendly&forum=203&topic_id=147718
Chaos in Cuyahoga? 49,000 Votes Disappear into the Ether ...then found?

Intro - In Cuyahoga, the ballot order was rotated ...

========

L. Coyote on Sun Dec-26-04
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=printer_friendly&forum=203&topic_id=196518
"Uncounted Votes in Cuyahoga County" by R. H. Phillips. How many??

"There are some difficult to analyze aspects to the non-vote issue. I hope this summary is useful...."

"The recount won't undo the cross-voting, Kerry votes counted for Bush." L. Coyote

167715, Cross-precinct voting switched votes to wrong candidate by L. Coyote ..
Cleveland Paper Cites Voter Problems, Votes Assigned to Wrong Candidates, AP, 12/11/04,
"approximately 1,000 voters in the two precincts cast ballots just steps away at machines meant for the other precinct."

This incident was detected. How much went unnoticed? Can this be manipulated to switch votes purposefully?

========

If you know of other pertinent threads , please add them.

with their illegal lockdown on observation Election night 2004. I still believe there was some seriously shady shit going on in that precinct/district. Diebold anyone?

and reported about 93,000 votes, with Bush getting 71.3% of the vote.

The question is, were the punch cards counted in the correct precincts, so that they counted as cast? OR, were votes cast for Kerry moved to a precinct where the ballot position punched by the voter counted for Bush instead?

How can we know if they lock us out? There is a way, and the ballots are preserved.

we had an optical scanner. No punch cards there, in Mason OH.

Here is the data I found:

County			Population			Method
adams			 28,026			Punch Card
allen			108,241			Op-Scan
ashland			 53,749			Op-Scan
ashtabula		103,120			Punch Card
athens			 64,380			Punch Card
auglaize		 46,740			E-Vote
belmont			 69,636			Punch Card
brown			 43,807			Punch Card
butler			343,207			Punch Card
carroll			 29,599			Punch Card
champaign		 39,544			Punch Card
clark			143,351			Punch Card
clermont		185,799			Op-Scan
clinton			 41,756			Punch Card
columbiana		111,523			Punch Card
coshocton		 37,132			Op-Scan
crawford		 46,091			Punch Card
cuyahoga	      1,363,888			Punch Card
darke			 52,960			Punch Card
defiance		 39,054			Punch Card
delaware		132,797			Punch Card
erie			 78,709			Op-Scan
fairfield		132,549			Punch Card
fayette			 28,158			Punch Card
franklin		1,088,944			E-Vote
fulton			 42,446			Punch Card
gallia			 31,398			Punch Card
geauga			 93,941			Op-Scan
greene			151,257			Punch Card
guernsey		 41,362			Punch Card
hamilton		823,472			Punch Card
hancock			 73,133			Op-Scan
hardin			 31,608			Op-Scan
harrison		 15,967			Punch Card
henry			 29,318			Punch Card
highland		 41,963			Punch Card
hocking			 28,644			Punch Card
holmes			 40,681			Punch Card
huron			 60,231			Punch Card
jackson			 33,074			Punch Card
jefferson		 71,888			Punch Card
knox			 56,930			E-Vote
lake			228,878			E-Vote
lawrence		 62,550			Punch Card
licking			150,634			Punch Card
logan			 46,411			Punch Card
lorain			291,164			Punch Card
lucas			454,216			Op-Scan
madison			 40,624			Punch Card
mahoning		251,660			E-Vote
marion			 66,396			Punch Card
medina			161,641			Punch Card
meigs			 23,242			Punch Card
mercer			 40,933			Punch Card
miami			100,230			Op-Scan
monroe			 14,927			Punch Card
montgomery		552,187			Punch Card
morgan			 14,843			Punch Card
morrow			 33,568			Punch Card
muskingum		 85,423			Punch Card
noble			 14,054			Punch Card
ottawa			 41,192			Op-Scan
paulding		 19,665			Punch Card
perry			 35,074			Punch Card
pickaway		 51,723			E-Vote
pike			 28,194			Punch Card
portage			154,870			Punch Card
preble			 42,417			Punch Card
putnam			 34,754			Punch Card
richland		128,267			Punch Card
ross			 74,424			E-Vote
sandusky		 61,753			Op-Scan
scioto			 77,453			Punch Card
seneca			 57,734			Punch Card
shelby			 48,566			Punch Card
stark			377,519			Punch Card
summit			546,773			Punch Card
trumbull		221,785			Punch Card
tuscarawas		 91,706			Punch Card
union			 43,750			Punch Card
van wert		 29,277			Punch Card
vinton			 13,231			Punch Card
warren			181,743			Punch Card
washington		 62,505			Op-Scan
wayne			113,121			Punch Card
williams		 38,802			Punch Card
wood			123,020			Punch Card
wyandot			 22,826			Punch Card

Source: Ohio 2004 Presidential Elections: Results, Summary, Charts and Spreadsheets
http://jqjacobs.net/politics/ohio_spreadsheets.html
Ohio 2004 Presidential Election Canvass - Voting by Counties - 805 Kb Excel file.
http://jqjacobs.net/politics/xls/ohio_vote_county.xls

of the 2004 ballots in Warren County and Claremont County. He is a Democrat and is heavily involved with the Warren County Democratic Party. They found nothing out of the ordinary with the 2004 ballots in Warren County. He did say there were major issues with the Claremont County ballots and there is an affidavit concerning those ballots. I have also posted my comments concerning 48percenter's comment, see below concerning my issues with the 2004 and 2006 election results in Warren County.

but not illegal, as far as anyone has determined. It will be interesting to see if Jennifer Brunner (SOS) looks at the situation.

In Warren County 88% of voters are registered as republican. In 2004 Bush* received 72.06%; Kerry received 27.58%; and "other" received 0.36%. It is important to remember in 2004 the anti-gay marriage constitutional amendment was on the ballot and every right wing religious idiot came out to vote. That also had a big impact on the presidential voting in Warren County. From what I saw in the precinct I worked as a polling judge, as a Democrat, the voting was heavy and very republican since I live in Mason.

To further make the point concerning Warren County, the 2006 general election not one Democrat on the ticket won. It was a total sweep for the republicans. For AG 64% (R) and 35% (D); for Auditor 69% (R) and 30% (D); for Governor 57% (R) and 40% (D); for SOS 59% (R) and 36% (D); for US Senate (DeWine vs. Brown) 59% (R) and 36% (D). What I am trying to show here is they vote republican in Warren County Ohio. All but one State race in 2006 in Ohio was won by a Democrat yet in Warren Ohio not one Democrat won. There does appear to be a trend here in Warren County. The Democrats are picking up more of the vote in Warren County (comparing 2004 with 2006). I hope the trend continues in 2008 and beyond. The sad truth about Warren County is there are no elected Democrats in any positions in Warren County, from Township,to municipal, to county or state representative or state senator. No one that I have talked with who lives in Warren County can remember a Democrat ever winning.

I have heard many complaints about election fraud in Warren County and mostly from people outside the county. I do recognize 48percenter as living in Warren County in 2004. She moved out of here I can't blame her. It can be very frustrating at times here in Warren County being a liberal Democrat. I get a lot of shit from my neighbors but I am also more than glad to dish it right back at them. The republicans don't know how to deal with someone with a differing opinion. It really throws them off balance but they usually get mad and start yelling and that's when I laugh in there faces. I have spoken to both republicans and Democrats at the Warren County BOE and shared with them the comments that I have seen here on DU and other places. From the comments from both sides (D and R) I have come to the conclusion that no election fraud occurred in 2004 in Warren County. It would not make sense for the BOE personnel in Warren County to commit election fraud because they are not of one party. There are a fair number of Democrats who work for the BOE and none of them would tolerate fraud at any level. If someone has proof that election fraud occurred in Warren County they need to file a complaint with the Secretary of State for Ohio (Brunner) or the AG (Dann), otherwise it is just conjecture on their part with no corroborating evidence. Give it a rest or get on some medications to control the paranoia.

BY THE WAY THEY DON'T USE DIEBOLD EQUIPMENT IN WARREN COUNTY, never have and never will! In 2004 we used the punch ballots. Since 2006 we use a paper ballot that is scanned into a machine. The paper ballots are saved for auditing or if the memory chip is lost or the data is lost for some reason the votes can be counted by hand or machine.

I was recently at a training session for the new equipment and a republican working for the BOE made an interesting comment about election fraud in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland area). There are two BOE members from Cuyahoga County doing serious hard time for election fraud from the 2004 election. He commented that election fraud would not be worth the risk of jail. I am glad to see that the republicans are getting the message here in Ohio.

SOS for Ohio web site for 1940-2007 voting results: http://www.sos.state.oh.us/SOS/ElectionsVoter/results2006.aspx

:hi: that was very informative. Hope you are surviving in Mason. Our only ties to the place are some boxes and my motorcycle in a Mason self-storage facility. That will change when the housing market settles down and we purchase a property on the East Coast. I am trying to get my voter's registration changed to my mother's address, it's easier that way, all my mail comes there and I own half of her house anyhow. So, I think my 2008 vote will be in Pennsylanvia, spent most of my adult life there anyhow.

So who tossed OH to the Cons besides Cuyahoga? Clermont? With all the voter repression and scheming in that state, it makes my head implode because I still think KKKarl and Bush stole it.

Hang in there Rex, and give'em hell in Mason for me too!! (My favorite Ohio memory was voting in the primaries there in May 2005 and making a Repug volunteer scream because I said there is no way I would EVER vote for Blackwell because I am a Democrat. HAHAA!!!)

-48%er, happily enjoying the benefits of a parliamentary Democracy across the pond. :)

PM me and I'll buy you a beer since you missed our DU meet up in Mason.

they are much better over here, trust me. ;)

and drawing of false conclusions w/o doing the leg work required to discover the truth. The lockdown is a classic case, a redundant echo to prop up views. Tying that to Diebold is a double echo. Those crying Dieblod fraud in 2004 also have not taken a close look at the stats, and ofter do not even mention the punch cards w/o precinct marks!!

By the way, Brunner knows precinct ballots have fingerprints on them!!!!

This would not be the only film that fails to even mention the wrong-precinct voting and the statistical evidence of Kerry-Bush vote-switching.

Is the topic not "dumb enough" for a mass audience?