Bush + Musharraf = Busharraf. This is what Pakistanis call their "enlightened moderate" (or is it, moderately enlightened) dictator.
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Until recently Musharraf had a few things going for him. He had been able to mollify and appeal to Pakistan's large moderate center by keeping the attention on the "Talibanization" of the country (which is real). Also, by using exile as a tool he deprived the moderate center from having symbols around whom to rally. Finally, he worked hard on creating a better economic culture (even funding a securities and exchange commission), that brought a lot of foreign investment to Lahore and Karachi. Now, the first two bulwarks have fallen.
Led by the lawyers of the country, who became agitated when Musharraf removed the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court based on charges of corruption, the moderate center ceased paying attention to the Taliban style militias and War on Terror. They suddenly realized that their leader was an autocrat. They took to the streets in defense of Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry and the rule of law. Thus, the Chief Justice became the symbol around which the populists and opposition could rally. Musharraf tried to demonstrate that the Chief Justice actually was corrupt (and the case is pending before the Supreme Judiciary Council and verdict comes out tomorrow). However, the damage had been done.
The opposition parties latched onto the Chief Justice and started parading him around the country like a golden calf. Things were peaceful and calm, relatively speaking, until the Chief Justice decided to go to Karachi over the weekend. Karachi is home to the MQM, the backbone party in the Musharraf coalition. Acting like Musharraf's bulldogs (though arguably not at his behest), the MQM put on a show of force, prevented the Chief Justice from speaking at his venue, and blocked the city's streets. Riots started. 34 people died, the death toll is rising, and everyone is claiming that Karachi is burning. It is. In fact, the Pakistani papers say the country is bleeding. These graphic (warning!) pictures put the seriousness of the situation in perspective. Given that media outlets and private TV stations were also attacked, now the media has joined the lawyers in opposing Musharraf.
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The possibility exists that the Musharraf cat is out of the bag and that the military, behaving in a corporatist fashion, will replace him with a more amenable general, while sending Musharraf off to live in the West. Then, the new face will announce elections in the near future, and Pakistan will once again go back to a democratic government. The problem with this scenario is that the democratic leaders are a coterie of inept, unjust, violent felons and convicts, who in the past have used violence, virulent fascist violence, to destroy their opponents and pillage small business and punish citizens. The fear with democracy in Pakistan is not, as some members of the right-wing claim, that the Islamists will take over. Most of the democrats are, if not committed to quasi-secular principles, relatively uncaring towards political Islam. Rather, the fear is that the democrats are self-obsessed, greedy, and rapacious no matter what ideology they belong to.
The possibility also exists that Musharraf will be able to avoid being removed, appease the populists by reaching a power sharing deal, and stick around for a few more years until he himself renounces the dictatorship. If it looks that the populist protests are not dying down very soon, I recommend the U.S. ask (and help) Musharraf to go this route.
Either way, two things are certain. First, no one in Pakistan is looking for Bin Laden. Second, Pakistan is now as important as Iraq and Iran on the global stage.
more 23 February 2006
Says Musharraf has "vision for democracy," economy reform yielding results
Washington -- President Bush, who will visit Pakistan in March, praised Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf's leadership in dealing with Islamic radicals and his personal courage in the face of assassination attempts.
Speaking with Pakistani journalists February 22, Bush said he appreciated Musharraf's "commitment to joining the world in dealing with Islamic radicals who will murder innocent people to achieve an objective."
Bush also cited Musharraf's "vision for a democracy in Pakistan," saying Musharraf is committed to a successful political reform process. "I believe he's committed to free and open elections," Bush said.
Regarding closer economic ties between the United States and Pakistan, Bush said the United States will continue to pursue increased economic ties aimed at opening up additional commercial opportunities. He said discussions are under way for an investment arrangement that would be beneficial to Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Bush said that economic reforms in Pakistan have yielded "strong results." With a growing economy, Pakistan's people, Bush said, also are enjoying tangible benefits of democracy, including a free press.
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