Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

New Rasmussen: Edwards highest # ever; Hillary highest # since March; Obama lowest # since February

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread		 This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
 
Czolgosz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-21-07 02:30 PM
Original message
New Rasmussen: Edwards highest # ever; Hillary highest # since March; Obama lowest # since February
lINK: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/2008_democratic_presidential_primary

These national polls are meaningless at this early stage where the candidates are not running their campaigns nationally, but Obama's numbers call Rasmussen's polling into question. Since the last Rasmussen poll, Obama's lead over Edwards has shrunken by 12 points and Hillary's lead over Obama has grown by 8 points.

NOTHING IN THE PAST WEEK (or at least nothing I'm aware of) WOULD EXPLAIN THIS ABRUPT DOWNWARD SHIFT IN OBAMA'S NUMBERS. The likeliest conclusion: Rasmussen's polling sucks.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
Captain Hilts Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-21-07 02:33 PM
Response to Original message
1. Rassmussen is still better and more consistent than Gallup. Absence of exposure...
can affect numbers.

This early in the game, they have little meaning.

Ignore.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
elocs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-21-07 03:35 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. Sure they have little meaning, but they will be shouted from the housetops again and again.
Especially by those whose candidates are up or when others are down.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jcrew2001 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-22-07 04:21 PM
Response to Reply #4
20. I agree, polling is for propoganda and fundraising
its for paper champions; however it can be effective in rallying the troops if your candidate is down.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-21-07 02:41 PM
Response to Original message
2. This could be an outlier for Ras. But Rasmussen has been the most accurate 3 elections in a row(nt)
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Czolgosz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-22-07 07:49 AM
Response to Reply #2
12. There are many who'd dispute Rasmussen's claim th bo the most accurate. Links:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Commentary/blog_11_8_04_1018.html
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/2/4/184928/4746
http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/10/battleground_st.html
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-22-07 01:03 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. Ummmm your second link doesn't even mention Rasmussen
From your 1st link

"Raghavan Mayur at TIPP also deserves a mention for outperforming almost all of the big media pollsters and coming in just a tick off the final results with their final Bush 50.1, Kerry 48.0, Nader 1.1 projection. Scott Rasmussen of Rasmussen Reports also had a solid final result with their Bush 50.2, Kerry 48.5 final projection."

So Rasmussen was within 1%.

And your 3rd link? Rasmussen's #'s were on target.

Read this article

http://www.slate.com/id/2110860/
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Stevepol Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-22-07 01:36 PM
Response to Reply #2
16. How do you calculate accurate or inaccurate when DRE's count the votes?
The DRE's are definitely skewing results so whichever pollster takes that into account the most accurately would likely be the one judged to be the "most accurate."

In the last three elections, the skew has probably averaged about 4% Repug.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-22-07 03:52 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. The moment you let conspiracy BS in the conversation is the moment you lose me.
Edited on Tue May-22-07 03:54 PM by rinsd
Sorry.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
hedda_foil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-21-07 02:49 PM
Response to Original message
3. The consistently huge spread among all the pollsters has no real rhyme or reason.
I'm starting to believe that it's not possible to do accurate national polling this far out. It's never been done this early before as anything but a form of amusement, because it was way too early. Remember, Lieberman was in the lead in national polls for a long time in '03. If the normal polling techniques worked, there would be some degree of consistency (within a range of course) from poll to poll instead of these absurd ups and downs that have nothing to do with anything. All it really proves to me at this point is that most people aren't anywhere close to making a final decision on their primary candidate, and most preferences are nowhere near firm.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Captain Hilts Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-21-07 03:54 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. The approval ratings numbers, of the polling firms are all usually close to the margin for error.
It's amazing how consistent they are.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Czolgosz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-21-07 06:39 PM
Response to Reply #5
8. It's not amazing that polls would be consistent. That's a question of the reliability of the method
and the size of the polled population, which gives rise to the margin of error within a given statistical confidence level.

Polls taken according to reliable methods of the same population at the same time should reach comparable results within the margin for error.

Rasmussen seems out of the polling mainstream lately.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
wyldwolf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-21-07 03:57 PM
Response to Original message
6. Rasmussen's polling sucks? When Obama was ahead, people on DU said it was "most accurate."
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Czolgosz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-21-07 04:10 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. I like Obama, but he's my third choice. When I question those numbers it isn't due to rabid Obamania
Edited on Mon May-21-07 04:10 PM by Czolgosz
Rasmussen's numbers show a huge swing over a short period of time and there has been no event which would explain that huge swing. That is an indicia of crappy polling.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Truth2Tell Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-22-07 01:29 PM
Response to Reply #7
14. Believe it
Don't underestimate the fickleness of the American electorate. Even the Dems.

Obama is coming off of his "MSM celebrity of the month" boost. The newness is wearing off.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
illinoisprogressive Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-21-07 06:50 PM
Response to Original message
9. I am depressed over the Obama news but, glad for Edwards, depressed about Hillary.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Tejanocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-21-07 11:31 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. It's way too early to get depressed over a poll (unless you're Biden or Dodd or maybe Richardson)
Edited on Mon May-21-07 11:35 PM by Tejanocrat
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
question everything Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-22-07 04:45 PM
Response to Reply #10
22. Or even elated (nt)
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-21-07 11:56 PM
Response to Reply #9
11. Toughen up! He'll be back in the high 20s next week.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Norquist Nemesis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-22-07 01:31 PM
Response to Original message
15. As soon as Edwards comes out with a statement how they caved today
he'll get a 15 point bounce.

I'm so pissed off and disappointed at the "leadership"!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Clark2008 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-22-07 04:02 PM
Response to Reply #15
19. He would have caved had he still been there, too.
His Senate record proves it.

:eyes:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jcrew2001 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-22-07 04:24 PM
Response to Reply #19
21. stupid red state congress
they're worthless
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
draft_mario_cuomo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-22-07 04:47 PM
Response to Reply #15
23. Exactly. Where were HRC, Biden, and co. on this?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
PresidentObama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-22-07 03:57 PM
Response to Original message
18. Keep it up Edwards. Hillary's numbers are quite impressive as usual. n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Joanne98 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-22-07 07:05 PM
Response to Original message
24. GO EDWARDS!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Fri May 03rd 2024, 01:33 AM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators

Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC