AP: Iowa presents problems for Clinton

EMMETSBURG, Iowa - Memo to Hillary Rodham Clinton: Your deputy campaign manager was right.

An internal campaign memo late last month urged the Democratic front-runner to bypass first-up and momentum-generating Iowa because of Clinton's lackluster showing despite drawing large crowds — a memo she immediately disavowed.

Yet, the reality from Des Moines to Dubuque lends credence to deputy campaign manager Mike Henry's assessment that for Clinton, Iowa is "our consistently weakest state."

Presidential rival John Edwards has capitalized on the remnants of his 2004 presidential operation in the state, the freedom to visit in the absence of a day job and a fresh populist appeal to grab the lead in recent polls.

Clinton's other top rival, Barack Obama, has drawn large crowds and hired a team of experienced organizers with a deep knowledge of Iowa's arcane caucus system. Even lesser-known candidates Bill Richardson and Chris Dodd have gained some traction with ads on Iowa television.

"If the caucuses were held today, it's fair to say she would probably not win," former state Democratic Party Chairman Gordon Fischer said. "It's going to take a tremendous amount of work to catch up — it's doable, but it's going to be difficult."

The notion of the Democratic front-runner losing Iowa would jolt the presidential race. The state's last three winners captured the Democratic nomination as Al Gore beat back Bill Bradley's strong challenge in 2000 and John Kerry saw his moribund candidacy revived after his victory in 2004.

Clinton's husband, Bill, then the sitting president, cruised in 1996.

Hillary Clinton isn't as familiar to Iowa voters, and within days of the memo, she was back in the state, completing the last leg of her "Four Corners of Iowa" tour. She and six of the Democratic presidential candidates will be in the state Saturday night for a state party dinner.