Opinion Dynamics/Fox Poll: Hillary up by 13, Edwards 4th, Bush approval 34%

SaveElmer

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Thu Jun-07-07 03:48 PM
Original message

Opinion Dynamics/Fox Poll: Hillary up by 13, Edwards 4th, Bush approval 34%

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/060707_release_web.pdf

Hillary 36
Obama 23
Gore 14
Edwards 12

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Colobo

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Thu Jun-07-07 03:51 PM
Response to Original message

1. No changes, then.

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SaveElmer

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Thu Jun-07-07 03:52 PM
Response to Reply #1

2. Not really...

Making that USATODAY/Gallup poll look like an anomaly...

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Colobo

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Thu Jun-07-07 03:53 PM
Response to Reply #2

4. It was a weird poll, for sure. Still, I'm waiting for next week.

The effects of the debate will be more clear next week.

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Colobo

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Thu Jun-07-07 03:52 PM
Response to Original message

3. Elmer, what do you think the fundraising numbers will be for the 2nd quarter?

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SaveElmer

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Thu Jun-07-07 03:53 PM
Response to Reply #3

5. Well...

Sounds like there is a bit of gamesmanship goin on. A little expectations game...

I expect Obama will have more donors again, and they will come in about the same in total dollars...

Both will do very well...which is a good thing IMO...

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draft_mario_cuomo

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Thu Jun-07-07 03:54 PM
Response to Original message

6. Here are Fox's results for their party

Edited on Thu Jun-07-07 03:55 PM by draft_mario_cuomo

1) Giuliani (R-9/11) 22%
2) McCain 15%
3) F. Thompson 13%
4) Romney 10%
5) Gingrich 8%
6) Huckabee 3%
7) Paul 2%
7) T. Thompson 2%
9) Tancredo 1%
9) Hunter 1%
11) Brownback 0%
11) Gilmore 0%

This shows how meaningless national polls are right now. Romney is in 4th in national polls but leading in Iowa and NH. Giuliani, in contrast, leads the national polls but is floundering in Iowa and struggling in NH.

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Colobo

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Thu Jun-07-07 03:57 PM
Response to Reply #6

7. Mmmm... I would say it means the GOP field is wide open

and that they are not satisfied with their field. In the Dem field, there are 3 top tier candidates, and 2 are dominating.

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SaveElmer

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Thu Jun-07-07 03:58 PM
Response to Reply #7

10. I think that is right...

I think the Dems are far more engaged in the process than Republicans are...which is natural given how negative Repubs are on their field

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rinsd

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Thu Jun-07-07 04:00 PM
Response to Reply #7

12. The Dems had almost a million more viewers for their debate vs GOP (nt)

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SaveElmer

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Thu Jun-07-07 03:57 PM
Response to Reply #6

8. More meaningless for the Republicans...

They're contest has been more wide open...reflected in the higher number of undecideds...by contrast only 9% of Dems haven't picked someone so far...

I think the Democrats are far more engaged at this point and so the Democratic numbers are more reflective of actual consideration of the candidates...

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Donnachaidh

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Thu Jun-07-07 03:57 PM
Response to Original message

9. Isn't Opinion Dynamics owned by a crony of NEWT GINGRICH?

IIRC, I've read that somewhere. It's definitely a RW pollster. I wouldn't give it much weight.

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SaveElmer

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Thu Jun-07-07 03:59 PM
Response to Reply #9

11. Never hear any talk they weren't a legit firm...

That Fox uses them should give pause, but as far as I know their track record has been fine...

They certainly don't seem to have inflated Bush's numbers in this poll...

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draft_mario_cuomo

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Thu Jun-07-07 04:03 PM
Response to Reply #11

14. Bush is at 29% in another poll. Fox always has him a few points higher nt

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SaveElmer

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Thu Jun-07-07 04:09 PM
Response to Reply #14

16. Five point is within MoE of any poll...nt

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draft_mario_cuomo

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Thu Jun-07-07 04:14 PM
Response to Reply #16

17. Fox consistently does this nt

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SaveElmer

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Thu Jun-07-07 04:22 PM
Response to Reply #17

18. Cite your sources...

On the other hand these charts show Opinion Dynamics polls to be completely in line with every other polling firm on Bush'd approval...

http://www.pollster.com/presbushapproval.php

Spin Away!!!

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alfredo

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Thu Jun-07-07 06:24 PM
Response to Reply #18

30. Look at this chart. At top shows the different polling companies

Notice where Fox polls are in comparison with the others.

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draft_mario_cuomo

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Thu Jun-07-07 11:27 PM
Response to Reply #30

31. Thanks. Especially look at where Fox consistently is when *'s ratings are low nt

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alfredo

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Thu Jun-07-07 11:33 PM
Response to Reply #31

33. Is it the poll, who they poll, or how they handle the data?

Of course there are some that are to the other extreme.

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SaveElmer

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Thu Jun-07-07 11:31 PM
Response to Reply #30

32. WHich appears to prove my point...

No significant difference between OD polls an others...in fact it looks to me like Gallup is consistently the highest in terms of Bush approval...

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draft_mario_cuomo

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Thu Jun-07-07 04:01 PM
Response to Original message

13. HRC gets only 80% Dem support against Giuliani, loses among independents

From the same poll:

Giuliani 45%
Clinton II 42%

Among Democrats

HRC 80%
Giuliani 11%
Not sure 9%

Among Republicans

Giuliani 83%
HRC 7%
Not sure 10%

Independents

Giuliani 41%
Clinton II 37%
Not sure 22%

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SaveElmer

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Thu Jun-07-07 04:09 PM
Response to Reply #13

15. And Obama only gets 73%...

From the same poll:

Giuliani 46
Obama 41

Among Democrats
Obama 73%
Giuliani 19%
Not sure 9%

Among Republicans

Giuliani 76%
Obama 12%
Not sure 11%

Independents

Giuliani 40%
Obama 39%
Not sure 21%

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Colobo

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Thu Jun-07-07 04:30 PM
Response to Reply #15

19. Why wouldn't a Democrat vote for Hill or Obama against a Rep?

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SaveElmer

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Thu Jun-07-07 04:35 PM
Response to Reply #19

21. I don't know...

And I don't think that number means anything in comparison to Hillary's...just posted it because Mario makes a habit of taking normal numbers and trying to make them look bad in relation to Hillary...in fact they are both doing fine among Democrats in these polls...

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William769

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Thu Jun-07-07 04:31 PM
Response to Reply #15

20. Why bother?

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jefferson_dem

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Thu Jun-07-07 04:45 PM
Response to Reply #13

23. These number demonstrate, once again, how Hillary is polarizing as hell and

Edited on Thu Jun-07-07 04:46 PM by jefferson_dem

Obama would be much more appealing to Independents and can garner more Repuke crossover support.

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SaveElmer

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Thu Jun-07-07 04:46 PM
Response to Reply #23

24. Then why ignore Obama's numbers...which are worse...

I can understand why you would ignore that...but still...since it has already been posted it is obvious you didn't bother to read anything except what you wanted to see

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jefferson_dem

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Thu Jun-07-07 05:01 PM
Response to Reply #24

25. You shouldn't make such assumptions, especially when they are obviously proven wrong.

Fact is, i only posted *after* i had read your rebuttal. Fact is, my statement stands.

Here...so you can do an easy side-by-side of Hillary and Obama among Indepdendents and Reps...

Independents

Giuliani 41%
Clinton II 37%
Not sure 22%

Giuliani 40%
Obama 39%
Not sure 21%

Among Republicans

Giuliani 83%
HRC 7%
Not sure 10%

Giuliani 76%
Obama 12%
Not sure 11%

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SaveElmer

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Thu Jun-07-07 05:06 PM
Response to Reply #25

26. Why did you leave out the 73% support among Democrats?

Which was the point of Mario's ridiculous post...hmmm? Obama pulls 7% less among Democrats!

Independent numbers are identical...unless you wanna argue 1% in a poll is significant...

btw: I posted all of these numbers

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jefferson_dem

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Thu Jun-07-07 05:13 PM
Response to Reply #26

27. If you see, i wasn't summarizing overall support in my post. I specifically referenced

independent and cross-over support.

True...the gap between Obama and Hillary among indepdendents is not as substantial in this poll as what i've seen in others.

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draft_mario_cuomo

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Fri Jun-08-07 05:49 PM
Response to Reply #25

34. HRC looks better vis-a-vis Obama then she really is due to name ID

Let's not forget HRC has 99% name ID while Obama is at only 75%. If Obama wins the nomination his name ID will naturally rise into the 90's. In other words, Obama is already beating her among independents and Republicans and is close among Democrats. Once he gets known he will thrash HRC among independents and Republicans and be on par with her among Democrats. Obama can win; Clinton II cannot. Hopefully, the establishment will shift to Obama after he crushes her in second quarter fund-raising. Without the machine behind her HRC would fade.

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jefferson_dem

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Thu Jun-07-07 04:36 PM
Response to Original message

22. Since May:::: Obama up three, Hillary and Al up 1, Edwards down 1.

Edited on Thu Jun-07-07 04:36 PM by jefferson_dem

-- All changes within the margin of error. Not great "progress" but i'll take it.

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bigdarryl

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Thu Jun-07-07 05:55 PM
Response to Reply #22

28. BUT the media keeps telling us Obama is FADING!!!!

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Catchawave

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Thu Jun-07-07 06:14 PM
Response to Original message

29. Fox News Poll ?

ABE :)

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calteacherguy

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Fri Jun-08-07 05:59 PM
Response to Original message

35. Fox News clearly has an agenda. nt

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