POLL: Hillary leads Obama by a dozen (33% - 21%), down five points since March, Gore at 20%

AP - Ipsos Poll

1a. If the 2008 Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today and the candidates
were... for whom would you vote?

Hillary Clinton - 33
Barack Obama - 21
Al Gore - 20
John Edwards - 12
Bill Richardson - 3
Joe Biden - 1
Chris Dodd - -
Other - -
None - 3
(DK/NS) - 7

Interview dates: June 4-6, 2007
Interviews: 1,000 adults; 827 registered voters
541 Democrats; 356 Republicans
Margin of error: +3.1 for all adults; +3.4 for registered voters
+ 4.2 for Democrats; + 5.2 for Republicans

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/client/act_dsp_pdf.cfm?name=mr070609-1topline.pdf&id=3528

Edit: Another point...seems "Republican" is now the third-ranked "PiD". There are fewer Repukes out there than self-described Independents... :bounce:

Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an Independent or none of these?
INITIAL PARTY IDENTIFICATION
ALL ADULTS
Republican ....................................... 22
Democrat.......................................... 36
Independent ..................................... 25
None of these................................... 16
Not sure........................................... 1

n/t

Because I think the Gore votes are from people that have finally realized they were supporting someone that will have a hard time winning. Hence, if Gore doesn't run, they will choose someone besides Hillary.

if Gore does not run. The only way she'll get my vote is if the DLC crams her down my throat in the primaries.

Also the pattern seems to be "Likely" voters give Hillary a 15 point lead, registered give about 8 points, and polls like Gallup that just control for "adult" have it very close.

The only ones that seem to show movement toward Obama are the ones open to all "adults".

I have sent money to the Draft Gore site, I have never considered Hillary as my candidate.

but my Colorado vote doesn't mean much anyways.

Considering the margin of error, we might as well say Obama is no longer in a solid second place.

I also wonder why Hillary's support has eroded while Obama's has remained firm.

... Clinton and Gore's base of supporters have more in common that Obama's base with Gore's. Gore has taken the numbers from Clinton. As the recent Marist poll showed, without Gore in the race, Clinton's numbers increase.

Hillary will drop down by the end of the year.

Yes, he was the frontrunner at one point. The similarities end there.

He did not have the fundraising machine and boots on the ground in pivotal states at this point in the campaign.

Hillary will drop down by the end of the year.

If you've convinced yourself of that, try to hold the spin to a minimum on mega-super tuesday if you're wrong,

:shrug:

can that still be said in 2007?

He lost.

You Hillary supporters can pretend it's over all you want. Keep sticking your head in the ground or fingers in your ears. Things will more than likely change. She may still win the nomination, but it's way too early to predict it's over. I think that is all I was saying.

suggest that's because of anything other than name recognition / familiarity.

Clinton's numbers increase and decrease with the presence or lack thereof of Al Gore, and Obama's doesn't, doesn't logic dictate their base of support has much in common? I does to me.

I'd wager, if there was actually a way to prove this, that if Clinton for some reason dropped out and Gore got in, more Clinton supporters would shift to Gore than Obama supporters would.

Once people start paying attention Obama's numbers will start to go up. I'm saying this as someone who supports Obama, but really would like to see a Gore/Obama ticket.

dis proportionally preferred Hillary. When this thing heats up, the differences between Hillary and Obama and/or Gore will be made clear.

Gore / Obama would be my second favorite choice, just after Obama / x. If Hillary looks like she's about to lock up the nomination, i wouldn't rule out a Gore - Obama united team during the primary season.

Outlier or trend?

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2007-06-04-poll-results_N.htm

In their May 10-13 poll, Hillary was leading with 35% to Obama's 26% and Gore's 16%. In their current June 1-3 poll, Obama leads with 30% to Hillary's 29% and Gore's 17%. Hillary is down 6, Obama is up 4 and Gore is up 1.

So I would say the USAToday poll is an outlier.

Trend or outlier? We will see.

http://race42008.com/2006/11/12/newsweek-voters-want-democratic-president-but-no-good-democrats-available/

And last month he had 75% name recognition:

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/05/24/no_increase_in_name_recognition.html

Interstingly, Edwards has higher name recognition than Obama, but is polling lower. So why should anyone believe Clinton's lead is based on name recognition alone? Answer: We shouldn't.

The fact is, even with very good name recognition, more in the party would rather have someone other than Obama.

I said "comparatively unknown," which is true. Show me a poll that measures one keynote speech at a convention and a few months of national campaigning against 15 years on the national stage, including eight in the White House as first lady.

And, with all of that, 2/3 of the party still shows no excitement whatsoever for Hillary. Highly debatable whether she is in a great position or not.

Sorry. If the poll show people know him, I have no reason to doubt it. I know YOU do, because it conflicts with your theory. There are MORE Dems that want someone other than Obama than the same for Clinton.

and you're not alone. "Name recogniton" doesn't measure the level of knowledge that voters have of a particular candidate, nor does it communicate the depth of feeling associated with that candidate. What Obama supporters are simply saying when they cite "name recognition" is that Hillary is much better known. Not complicated.

Facts would be nice.

for whatever reason.

Also, the media still states he is an unknown. Yes, we are political fanatics. However, we are an exception. Once people start paying attention to politics he will gain even more ground. As for as him being an unknown CNN has stated it as well as MSNBC has stated that he if fairly an unknown.

Just to show you how much of an unknown. I was talking to one of my friends the other day. I was talking about Obama. She asked who was Obama. She is an African American. She never heard of him. There are many more out there just like her. I was surprised she never heard of him. I went on to inform her who he was. She was surprised and wanted to know more about him.

Despite Campaign, Familiarity With Candidates Has Not Changed Substantially
Giuliani remains most positively evaluated; Clinton and Romney least so

by Frank Newport

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Despite the remarkably early start on this year's presidential campaign and the high-visibility presence of the major candidates on television news shows and in televised debates, the name identification of the leading candidates or potential candidates has not changed much so far this year.

Hillary Clinton has near universal name identification, the highest of any of the major candidates. Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani is known by more than 8 in 10 Americans, more than is the case for John McCain and John Edwards, whose familiarity ratings are around 80%. Barack Obama's familiarity is at 75%. There has been little change in any of these candidates' recognition factors over the last several months. The least-known of the group of seven political figures included in this analysis are former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, who despite his acting role on prime time television, is known by less than 4 out of 10 Americans, and Mitt Romney, whose name ID remains below 50%.

Giuliani has the highest net favorable image of any of the major candidates, followed by Obama, Edwards, McCain, Fred Thompson, and finally Clinton and Romney. The net favorable ratings for several of these candidates -- including in particular Clinton -- have shown a decline through April, with a modest recovery in May.

Name Identification

This analysis deals with seven confirmed and potential presidential candidates -- Clinton, Obama, and Edwards on the Democratic side, and Giuliani, McCain, Romney, and Fred Thompson on the Republican side. "Name identification" is defined for the purposes of this analysis as the percentage of adult Americans who know enough about the candidate to be able to give an opinion of him or her.



http://www.galluppoll.com/content/default.aspx?ci=27673&eref=aol

Also, check out the Net Favorability ratings, which is calculated only for those who could identify the candidates (Fav minus Unfav) and therefore a better guage of *real* support. Hillary is hovering around 0 -- Obama is in the low to mid 30s.

Fact is, only 10 - 15% of the public is even starting to pay attention at this point. Fall -> Winter is going to be fun... :bounce:

Hillary Clinton

Poll everyone in the US? Just who are they picking for the poll. I know my phone never rings does yours.

I do not believe in any of them until 8 months out before the election.