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New Mason- Dixon South Carolina Poll

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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009)

thatsrightimirish

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Sun Jun-17-07 12:36 PM
Original message

New Mason- Dixon South Carolina Poll

"Obama led in the new poll with 34 percent of likely voters to 25 percent for Clinton. Edwards was third at 12 percent. Sen. Joe Biden was at 2 percent; so was former Vice President Al Gore, who has given no indication of running but whose name was volunteered by some voters. Twenty-four percent were undecided.

Thompson, a television actor and former Tennessee senator, topped Giuliani by 25 percent to 21 percent. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was next at 11 percent, followed by McCain at 7 percent and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 5 percent. Huckabee has gotten strong notices in the last two Republican debates. Twenty-eight percent were undecided."

Interesting, very interesting. Of course there are going to be people saying this poll is BS but don't attack the messenger!

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saltpoint

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Sun Jun-17-07 12:39 PM
Response to Original message

1. Mason-Dixon does pretty good work. What caught my eye in this

poll was McCain at 7%.

A Mormon former-governor of the most liberal state in the union is outpolling far-right John McCain in very conservative South Carolina.

Not good for the McCain team.

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napi21

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Sun Jun-17-07 12:49 PM
Response to Reply #1

2. South Carolinians didn't forget the McCain who campaigned

against flying the Confederate flag atop their State House, nor the comment he made about Shrub kissing up to the fundies just to get their votes. They won't vote for Mittens for several reasons. He's from Mass! He's a Mormon. He publically supported abortions and gay rights.

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saltpoint

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Sun Jun-17-07 10:57 PM
Response to Reply #2

11. Good points. And the climate generally isn't looking good for

the Republicans in SC if all they can scrape up is Giuliani/Romney/McCain.

A truly pathetic trio of yahoos if there ever was one.

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JCMach1

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Tue Jun-19-07 12:24 AM
Response to Reply #2

18. McCain is finished...

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MiniMe

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Tue Jun-19-07 12:12 AM
Response to Reply #1

17. Remember, SC is where the Rove/Bush machine cranked out the black baby story

That McCain fathered a black child. I still don't understand how McCain can have his head so far up Bush's butt after they did that to him.

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saltpoint

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Tue Jun-19-07 04:24 AM
Response to Reply #17

22. You're right -- the Rovian smear on McCain was a South Carolina

strategy for the Bush campaign in the 2000 primary. What an ugly mess of a soul Karl Rove must have. No fan of John McCain's voting record, his voice deserved to be heard as a candidate, and Rove's filthy doings subverted a basic democratic principle.

Seven percent is a staggeringly low number. Coupled with McCain's (apparently) lackluster fundraising the first 2 quarters of this year, I'd say they're gonna have to close the diner. Ain't nobody comin' in for lunch.

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MiniMe

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Tue Jun-19-07 06:44 AM
Response to Reply #22

23. Not a fan of McCain either, although I thought he would be tolerable

in 2000 if he happened to get elected. But what they did to him (and to John Kerry in 2004) was just plain wrong.

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illinoisprogressive

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Sun Jun-17-07 12:55 PM
Response to Original message

3. nice poll

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papau

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Sun Jun-17-07 03:10 PM
Response to Original message

4. interesting Clinton was ahead in same poll - black voting changed per poll so that

Edited on Sun Jun-17-07 03:11 PM by papau

Obama (41 percent) over Clinton (18 percent) among blacks in SC despite Clinton still leading among blacks nationally.

The 329 person poll has an MOE of 5.5%, plus and minus, so technically 34 to 25 is within 11 and they are "tied" - but this is a sea change if it shows up in a few more polls.

Funny how Free-Republic folks are so happy about it - I do not know if FR's just hate Clinton, or are secretly for Obama? :-)

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PurityOfEssence

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Sun Jun-17-07 05:12 PM
Response to Reply #4

5. Here are three reasons:

In answer to your questions about reactionaries being happy about this, here are three possibilities, and I'd wager that each has something to do with it.

They Hate Hillary Clinton and thirst for her demise; this is a hatred that goes to the bone.

They think that most other people are as racist as they are and thus think Obama doesn't have a chance in the general election.

They're scared to death of John Edwards because he's the most viable candidate in a general election--especially in the south--and since he walked away with the SC primary in '04 with a whopping 45% percent of the vote, they're thrilled to think he won't take this crucial early primary.

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elizm

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Sun Jun-17-07 07:44 PM
Response to Reply #5

6. You'd be wrong about that...

My Republican brother here in SC actually likes Obama....isn't so excited about any of his own candidates...and said he could vote for Obama. This poll is an indication of what I have seen happening here in SC for the past 4 months. Obama has spent a good bit of time here, people have heard him and like what he says. He is the strongest candidate we have.

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PurityOfEssence

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Sun Jun-17-07 08:11 PM
Response to Reply #6

8. I'm not disputing the poll one whit

Please re-read my post; it's an explanation of why the reactionaries are happy with this.

Personally, I don't think he's the best candidate, but that has nothing to do with what I said. For whatever reasons, he DOES have broad appeal. Hell, my quite conservative Mother-in-law even likes him, and that's a shocker. My point about bone-headed conservatives hoping that he gets the nomination is that they presume most people are at least somewhat racist deep down; it's an old snotty conservative belief that liberals may talk a good game about equality and all that, but it's just for show and sympathy and they'll vote against the ethnic when the curtain's pulled. I DO believe that there's a fair amount of truth to this in the south, and that'll make it a pretty tough row to hoe for Obama.

It's a tough call at this point, and it's still pretty early. Clinton's got huge negatives, but many women will vote for her and she's also got the momentum, money and some presence. Obama's got presence and momentum too, and I think the monarchists are grossly overestimating the average voter's racism.

I'm pretty partisan, but I do try to keep things focused on the issue at hand. The poster to whom I responded was asking why the right was reacting as it did.

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papau

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Sun Jun-17-07 10:02 PM
Response to Reply #8

9. And thanks for the reply - that is also how I read the poll reaction over at FR n/t

n/t

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monkeyhq

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Mon Jun-18-07 10:38 PM
Response to Reply #5

16. Why do folks say that?

Why is he the most viable candidate in the GE? I disagree. I think there are better candidates in the GE than Edwards. I think folks are short-changing the other candidates when they assume that JE is the most viable. That isn't a fact and it isn't born out by facts nor significant polling. In fact, the polling for Edwards seems to be taking a turn in the opposite direction, and he has tons of name recognition.

It is very, very early yet, for certain, but I don't think ANY of the candidates can state as a matter of fact that any one would do any better than the other as the most "viable". The candidate that is most 'viable' would have significant FP experience, administrative experience, perhaps some legislative experience, who can kick behind in a debate. We don't have anyone in the race that has that, and JE is a far cry from it, IMO.

For the most part, the people who are actually paying attention right now are the people practically guaranteed to vote in the primaries and GE. Superdelegates, party regulars. Overwhelmingly, endorsements are racking up for two candidates, and JE isn't one of them. The donor money is going to basically two candidates, and JE isn't one of them. I don't think there is any evidence whatsoever that proves him to be more 'viable'.

I vote for the nominee, no matter what, so this isn't an anti-Edwards bait. Arguments about 'viability' just seem utterly ridiculous right now.

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draft_mario_cuomo

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Tue Jun-19-07 12:43 AM
Response to Reply #16

20. He is a southerner with a rural background

Edited on Tue Jun-19-07 12:45 AM by draft_mario_cuomo

That, the fact that the bulk of polling shows him consistently performing the best in GE trial heats are primarily why many believe he is the best general election candidate. There is also the minor fact of him actually proving he could win in a red state by unseating a Republican incumbent in 1998. None of our other candidates have won in a true red state (New Mexico is a purple state that Gore won).

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monkeyhq

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Tue Jun-19-07 04:13 PM
Response to Reply #20

26. That doesn't make him the most viable.

I hardly think he performs 'consistently' better than anyone else in trial heats. That isn't supported by fact, especially this early in the campaigns when almost all anyone is polling on is name recognition, and the polls have been far too few and irregular to gain a consensus. Even with his loads of name recognition, he just isn't doing that well. My belief is that there is NO ONE we have in the race right now that can win a solid red state over to the dem side. No one. So the 'southerner' argument is rather irrelevant. If he had been a successful GOVERNOR of a southern RED state, then the argument might have validity. As a one term senator in NC, well, it just doesn't matter, IMO.

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SCDem

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Tue Jun-19-07 09:13 AM
Response to Reply #5

25. Edwards is not delivering in SC

Just went to our County Dem Executive Committee Meeting last night - lots of Democrats real dissatisfied with Edwards. Saying he really needs to deliver SC - if not then no real chance. But he is missing out on a lot of opportunities to get SC on his side. Other word is that the Edwards' are doing a lot of their own campaign work.

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elizm

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Sun Jun-17-07 07:55 PM
Response to Reply #4

7. Obama has led Hillary in a number of SC polls the past few months...

It is starting to show in NH, IA, and SC...all the places where he has spent a good bit of time. When people hear him, they like him. I expect that to continue.

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papau

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Sun Jun-17-07 10:10 PM
Response to Reply #7

10. Both Clinton and Obama do better with more exposure - clinton was in the 30's before

2000 senate campaign got started

Clinton's warm kind happy personality in small groups comes across nicely and kills the GOP talking point.

Obama'a sincerity and high hopes and optimism sells better and better with more contact.

It will be interesting to see who can out campaign the other - or if Edwards or someone else can move in on these two. I don't think we have a bad candidate among those running or almost running like Gore and the General.

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snowbear

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Mon Jun-18-07 01:14 AM
Response to Reply #4

14. Freeps and the Democratic primary..

Pull up some of their comments regarding Hillary Clinton -- and some of their comments regarding Barack Obama.

You'll find a lot of them that indicate:

1) They think Hillary doesn't stand a chance. They hope like hell she remains the frontrunner.
2) They seem to think Obama can pull it off. They're concerned about him.
3) They are racist PIGS there STILL. They will always be asshole racists.

Doesn't take but a second to find tons of threads with content such as this one:

To: stainlessbanner
Obama is smart. He does stand a chance down here. But Hillary doesn’t stand a chance.

4 posted on 06/17/2007 9:13:00 PM PDT by krb (If you're not outraged, people probably like having you around.)
< Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies >

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

To: stainlessbanner
then tell this nappy headed senator to stay away from Spitty Chrissy Matthews. Matthews brings up the “silly south” daily.

5 posted on 06/17/2007 9:16:21 PM PDT by advertising guy (If computer skills named us, I'd be back-space delete.)
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

To: stainlessbanner; WKB; wardaddy; WileyPink; jmax; Islander7; 2ndDivisionVet; somniferum; ...
I got yer Mississippi ping right here!

6 posted on 06/17/2007 9:18:24 PM PDT by dixiechick2000 (There ought to be one day-- just one-- when there is open season on senators. ~~ Will Rogers)
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

To: dixiechick2000
thanks dixiechick2000!
I always thought Bob Marley had a strange Southern accent.

7 posted on 06/17/2007 9:20:45 PM PDT by stainlessbanner
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

To: stainlessbanner
LOL!

You’re most welcome. ;o)

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

"Not all Republicans are racist. But all racists are Republican"

My God Freepers are NASTY people.

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Spiffarino

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Sun Jun-17-07 11:21 PM
Response to Original message

12. I hope Edwards will get on his horse and run hard

Edited on Sun Jun-17-07 11:21 PM by Spiffarino

South Carolina should be a strong primary for him. Polling at 12%...:wtf:

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jmp

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Mon Jun-18-07 01:30 AM
Response to Reply #12

15. Edwards is stuck in a death spiral

Clinton and Obama are sucking up all the oxygen among the more moderate dems, and that forces him to move to the left to get any traction. But the farther left he goes, the less electable he appears to the majority of Dems, so he tends to get dismissed.

At this point the most he can manage is to influence the political debate in the Democratic primary.

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draft_mario_cuomo

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Tue Jun-19-07 12:42 AM
Response to Reply #15

19. Edwards gained 5% in the polls in the last week in the latest Rasmussen poll

I know DLC'ers are fervently hoping his campaign is dead, but reports of his demise appear to be greatly exaggerated.

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jmp

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Tue Jun-19-07 07:53 AM
Response to Reply #19

24. Sorry but Edwards is DOA

Edwards is more likely to get passed for 3rd at this point than he is to catch either of the top 2.

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draft_mario_cuomo

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Tue Jun-19-07 01:04 AM
Response to Reply #12

21. Edwards will improve when they start campaigning there in earnest

Right now virtually all the campaigning is in Iowa and NH, and Edwards does much better there than nationally. He does best where people see him regularly. I believe that when the campaign begins in earnest Edwards' progressive message of real change, his clearly stated policy prescriptions, and pro-worker stances will help him improve in SC. I don't know, though, if that will be enough for him to win in SC. A lot will hinge on who comes out of Iowa and NH with momentum. Let's not forget Kerry was nowhere before Iowa.

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HowHasItComeToThis

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Mon Jun-18-07 12:25 AM
Response to Original message

13. Thompson is a toxic hack actor just like RAYGUN

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