A published poll at the time of the 1984 convention showed Hart beating Reagan while Mondale would clearly lose. The convention still nominated Mondale who lost 49 states in the worst loss in American politics.
The 1984 National Convention of the U.S. Democratic Party was held at the Moscone Center in San Francisco, California from July 16 to July 19, 1984. Unfortunately, the events of almost 23 years ago are not well documented on the Internet, since the Internet as we know it, didn’t exist then. Upon consultation and reflection, the Hartistas believe the poll was conducted by Gallup, but it was certainly was one of the major polling firms.
This from a high ranking Hartista, alias “CF Progress”, at the San Francisco convention on the matter of the poll and sticking the newspaper it appeared in under the doors of the Mondale delegates’ hotel rooms:
“Absolutely right. I was involved in this effort (and may have been the first to suggest it to Henkel). I recall the poll showing Gary leading Reagan by 3-5% and Mondale losing to Reagan by 7-9%. The poll was also distributed on the floor, which I could walk along the back of with my Hart guest pass. The Dem’s through themselves off the Golden Gate Bridge that week when they irrationally nominated Mondale (and repeated the mistake the following cycle). I actually tell the story in Hart/Heart in San Francisco, my (copyrighted) short story about my experience during '84 Convention Week. I wrote about it under the pseudonym CF Progress. (There's a copy in the Library of Congress; if anyone cares to locate it, the title actually has a heart symbol. It's in their computer records under CF Progress
During conventions, all the big publications (National Journal, etc.) circulated free special editions daily. (Maybe a holdover from the time conventions were contentious and shaped history. '84 was the end of that era.) Could have been any of them. I might have mentioned it in my short story. The numbers were unequivocal and lopsided. The Dem delegates did what they did with their eyes open: they threw the '84 election to Reagan.
(On the July 2-7, 1984 Harris poll showing Reagan and Hart in a statistical dead heat) I remember it differently and don't think it would have stuck in my mind as much if Gary were only shown slightly behind, and Mondale further behind, as here. I doubt the campaign would have approved distribution of this one, because the point (meaning) would not have been strong enough to brag about that way.”
In case you doubt the result, the July 2-7, 1984 Harris poll showed Reagan and Hart in a statistical dead-heat, while Reagan beat Mondale by 16 percent:
CAMPAIGN NOTES; Poll Shows Narrowing Of Reagan Lead in Race
New York Times
Published: July 12, 1984
President Reagan's lead over Walter F. Mondale has narrowed in the last month, according to the latest Harris Survey.
A poll of 1,259 ''likely voters'' in forthcoming Presidential election, conducted July 2-7, showed Mr. Reagan with 52 percent support and the former Vice President with 44 percent.
Mr. Reagan's lead over Senator Gary Hart of Colorado also slipped, but by a statistically insignificant amount. Mr. Reagan, who led by 51 percent to 47 percent in June, now holds a lead of 49 to 48 percent.
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9802E0DF1039F931A25754C0A962948260(The last sentence here is not accurate. Reagan’s 1% lead over Hart was statistically insignificant, not the 4% drop from the previous month’s poll. Typical MSM disinformation!)
Unlike Mondale, had Hart been nominated, he would not have used his acceptance speech to promise more middle class tax increases. The ’84 polls showed Hart could beat Reagan and Mondale couldn’t. Hart was rising in the polls at the time of the convention while Mondale, was tanking. Yet, the Dem’s lined up to drink the Mondale kool-aid and resulting 49 state loss.
Defeat was snatched from the jaws of victory, and the legend of “St. Ronnie” and the 49 state landslide came into our history.
I don’t want to do that again, but history tends to repeat itself in the Democratic party.
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