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CNN Poll: Hillary 43, Obama 25, Edwards 17...Bloomberg a Perot like effect...

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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-25-07 04:38 PM
Original message
CNN Poll: Hillary 43, Obama 25, Edwards 17...Bloomberg a Perot like effect...
Edited on Mon Jun-25-07 04:39 PM by SaveElmer


WASHINGTON (CNN) — New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg — who left the Republican Party last week — could have a serious impact on the 2008 presidential race, rivaling billionaire Ross Perot’s influence in 1992, a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll suggests.

In the new poll’s three-way matchups among registered voters, Democratic frontrunner Sen. Hillary Clinton would hold a slight edge in an all-New York race with 41 percent, compared to Republican frontrunner Rudy Giuliani’s 38 percent and Bloomberg’s 17.

In a two-way matchup, Clinton and Giuliani are effectively tied, 49-48 percent, with a sampling error of 3.5 percentage points.

In a race pitting Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, against Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, and Bloomberg, Obama drew 40 percent; McCain, 34 percent; and Bloomberg, 21. Without the New York mayor, Obama would edge McCain 48-44 percent, according to the poll.

The poll showed a possible Giuliani-Obama race a statistical dead heat, with Giuliani at 48 percent and Obama at 46 percent. But Obama led Fred Thompson by a wide margin, 52 percent to 40 percent, the survey found.

About a third of Americans — 33 percent — said they would be very or fairly likely to consider voting for an independent presidential candidate. That is considerably less than in June 1992, when 47 percent said they were likely to consider an independent. Ross Perot ended up taking 19 percent of the popular vote with an independent bid that year.

Bloomberg’s decision to abandon the GOP last week has fueled speculation that the two-term billionaire mayor will mount an independent presidential bid. Bloomberg called that talk “very flattering” Wednesday, but said he has no intention of seeking the White House.


http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/06/25/poll-bloomberg-could-have-perot-like-effect/#more-554
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democrat2thecore Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-25-07 04:43 PM
Response to Original message
1. That's without a dime being spent!
Wait until he's in the race spending a half billion dollars on paid TV advertising. The "Perot-like" effect is with NO money spent, that's actually pretty impressive. It could certainly grow to become something that only Perot wished in his wildest dreams. I don't think that's good for the Democrats - or the Republicans. This is a different kind of year - anything can happen.
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-25-07 04:45 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Or the opposite...
People don't know anything more about him than he is a billionaire mayor of New York...

Like Obama who's negatives are rising, I suspect Bloomberg's would too...

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democrat2thecore Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-25-07 04:54 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. You are right there as well
I guess that's what I mean by anything could happen. One thing's for sure - this is going to one hell of a ride in '08.
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Danieljay Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-25-07 05:18 PM
Response to Original message
4. More of the same if Clinton wins. If you want change, Edwards/Obama or Edwards/Kucinich!
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-25-07 05:20 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. That's pretty funny...nt
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madfloridian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-25-07 05:28 PM
Response to Original message
6. Hillary Hillary Hillary
and Bill Bill Bill.

and 28 yesrs of Bushes and Clintons.

I never saw anyone post as many polls as you do. It is angering.
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William769 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-25-07 05:37 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. Hey!
What about me?
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-25-07 05:39 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. You have two options then...
1. Get used to it

2. Use the handy dandy ignore feature so kindly provided to everyone by the moderators...


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madfloridian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-25-07 06:21 PM
Response to Reply #8
16. Get used to it...get over it. Love that attitude.
It is the inevitable nature.
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-25-07 06:26 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. Point to where I have said it is inevitable...
Just sounds like people are disappointed that their candidate is not ahead in the polls right now...

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madfloridian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-25-07 06:39 PM
Response to Reply #17
21. Frankly, my dear, I don't give a damn.
Got it? I am so sick of it all right now. These polls are so sickening so far ahead, and no really serious issues are being addressed.

We support Edwards, but we are realists. Hillary Hillary Hlllary because she's got Billary.
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-25-07 06:44 PM
Response to Reply #21
22. Well if you don't Give a Damn...
Why the angst?

You see GD : Politics is for...political news strangely enough...plenty of other forums for you to visit...

Or...that ignore button is only a few clicks away...

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Citizen Kang Donating Member (424 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-25-07 06:45 PM
Response to Reply #8
23. Good idea....BYE Elmer!
eom
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MonkeyFunk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-25-07 05:47 PM
Response to Reply #6
10. You don't like when
people post lots of threads about one particular politician? Odd.
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Danieljay Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-25-07 06:09 PM
Response to Reply #6
13. Why do you hate Hillary? Curse you and your children.
Just kidding of course. What the interest is in her I haven't a clue. She can't give a straight answer on anything. Of course, my opinion will get me accused of being a Hillary hater, just watch!
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William769 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-25-07 06:17 PM
Response to Reply #13
14. It's not what you say, but how you say it.
I reserve the right to make that judgement at a later date. :hi:
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William769 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-25-07 05:43 PM
Response to Original message
9. Hey SaveElmer, have you seen the latest poll from CA?
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-25-07 05:50 PM
Response to Reply #9
11. I have...pretty sweet...
If anything it seems like she is consolidating here lead even more securely...

This could be important cause Californians can vote early, and those numbers might be known before the Iowa caucus...could give her an initial bump
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zulchzulu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-25-07 06:33 PM
Response to Reply #11
19. Iowans do not listen to what Californians think in terms of polls...
If you think Iowa caucus participants are going to look at some polls in California that say that Senator Clinton is leading and make their vote according to that "information", you don't know Iowans.

I seem to remember nearly all the polls at around January 10, 2004 predicting an overwhelming victory for Howard Dean. Yeah, Iowans sure looked at those polls when making their decision. I was there....I saw it firsthand.

:rofl:





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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-25-07 06:37 PM
Response to Reply #19
20. Did you read the post?
No...obviously not...

These will not be opinion polls...but tracking polls of actual votes...

As with any campaign, what happens in one state affects the next....


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zulchzulu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-25-07 06:49 PM
Response to Reply #20
25. You stated that Iowans might listen to Cali polls when making their choice...
...and you'd be wrong on that.

Either way, polls seven months away from the actual voting starts is fairly pointless...fun for political junkies like you or me...but pointless.


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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-25-07 06:54 PM
Response to Reply #25
26. ...
Tracking polls of actual California votes would be released within days of the Iowa caucus...
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zulchzulu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-25-07 08:20 PM
Response to Reply #26
27. And...
...Iowans who participate in the caucus will give two craps what Californians think... no matter who is in the lead. Trust me.

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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-25-07 08:21 PM
Response to Reply #27
28. SO t he you do not subscribe to the known phenomonon...
That voting in one state affects voting in the next?
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zulchzulu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-25-07 10:36 PM
Response to Reply #28
29. I certainly would subscribe to that...
I think we can agree that what happens in Iowa will certainly have an impact on New Hampshire which will have a buzz in Nevada and South Carolina leading up to February 5.

I don't think polls from California will affect much on Iowa caucus participants...


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Bitwit1234 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-25-07 06:07 PM
Response to Original message
12. Wouldn't he be an effect on the republicans.
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Hart2008 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-25-07 06:20 PM
Response to Original message
15. Why is it then when given the choice between a Repub and a Clinton, people want an Indy?
In '92 GHW Bush was very unpopular.

The polls showed that people preferred to vote for an unnamed Dem over Bush, yet when it became apparent the Bill Clinton would get the nomination, people demanded a third choice. Perot led in the polls when he withdrew in the summer of '92, and Bill Clinton was the third of three candidates. By election day, the CNN/Gallup exit poll showed that more voters preferred Perot over Clinton, but didn't vote for him because, based on pre-election published polling, they didn't believed he would win. William Schneider, CNN political analyst, on the a September 21, 1996 broadcast of "Inside Politics," aired this exit poll result:

In 1992 the actual vote was:
Clinton 43%, Bush 38%, Perot 19%

CNN 1992 Exit Poll:
"Would you have voted for Perot if he had a chance to win?"
Yes 36% No 64%

CNN 1992 Exit Poll
The vote for Perot if voters believed he could win
Perot 36 percent
Clinton 34 percent
Bush 30 percent

Now with Junior Bush at record low approval ratings, the same trend is reoccurring. Dems should be poised to win in a landslide election, capturing the Presidency and big margins in both houses of Congress. Instead, when confronted with another Clinton in the White House, the polls show people wanting a third choice.

Knowing this, why do we want to nominate another Clinton?

The Repubs are smart enough not to nominate Jeb Bush this election. Shouldn't Dem's make a smart choice as well?

:shrug:
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democrat2thecore Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-25-07 06:32 PM
Response to Reply #15
18. So, when is Gary getting in the race? -nt
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Hart2008 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-25-07 06:48 PM
Response to Reply #18
24. Hart is presently the Chairman of The American Security Project
We will see what his plans are when they finish work on their project at the end of July...
;)

"Letter from The Honorable Gary Hart

The American Security Project has been created to develop a national security vision and strategy for the twenty-first century, building on America’s strengths, restoring its international leadership, and seeking solutions to the new realities of the 21st century before they become crises.

American national security policy is adrift. In the five years since the attacks of 9/11, the United States has toppled autocratic regimes, cast-aside collective security alliances, put its military into the field, expanded its covert battle against terrorists, and simultaneously lost its moral standing in much of the world. While American activism has not always met with approval in the international community, there once was a time when American action made us stronger. Today, however, anti-Americanism is fueled by actions that are seen as diversions from America’s historic path, accepted standards of international behavior, and common sense.

The issue at hand is the appropriate purpose and use of American power. Where the United States has needed strategy, we have been offered tactics. There has been little development of grand strategic thought since the end of the Cold War."

http://www.americansecurityproject.org/about
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