Cook Political Report: Obama, Clinton lead all three GOP Frontrunners....Obama by wider margins

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/16286

Polling Data

Possible match-ups - 2008 U.S. presidential election

Rudy Giuliani (R) 44% - 45% Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)
Rudy Giuliani (R) 41% - 42% Barack Obama (D)

Mitt Romney (R) 38% - 48% Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)
Mitt Romney (R) 34% - 47% Barack Obama (D)

Fred Thompson (R) 40% - 45% Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)
Fred Thompson (R) 35% - 46% Barack Obama (D)

I know Charlie Cook, and I think he's serious, but I can't
see any reason to get happy or upset about any poll taken more
than a year before the first primary is held. Ask Howard Dean.

In seven and a half months, the nomination will probably already be locked up.

Yes, the gist of your point is well taken, but this year is much different--unfortunately--than '03 because of the idiotic top-loading of the primaries. It's still too early to tell, but a direct chronological parallel to '03 is simply incorrect.

I meant a half year, of course.

I agree up to a point that this time it will be different due to toploading,
which I despise (and many in the DNC do as well). Not only does it have sort
of a "sudden death" aspect to it, but it also removes a moving target the
Swiftboaters would have otherwise had to contend with if the suspense had
gone on longer. The longer in advance of the election the identity of the
nominee is clear, the longer the Swiftboaters and their clones have to get
their slime machines in gear, and with the recent Supreme (Republican) Court
decision, they will have an easier time of it this time. The fact that their
message will be built on shaky piles of papier maché driven into sand is only
of slight comfort. The last two elections have shown that substance and competence
are of no direct bearing on who becomes President of the United States, which
is not exactly an encouraging thought.

:bounce: :headbang: :bounce: