Edwards and Obama pass Clinton in Iowa

mckeown1128

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Wed Jun-27-07 03:16 PM
Original message

Edwards and Obama pass Clinton in Iowa

Polls don't mean much until about a month before the election but there is a nice trend starting here!!

John Edwards 26%
Barack Obama 21%
Hillary Clinton 20%
Bill Richardson 11%
Joseph Biden 4%
Chris Dodd 2%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Undecided 15%

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/iowa_poll_062707.htm

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SaveElmer

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Wed Jun-27-07 03:20 PM
Response to Original message

1. Except the trend is the exact opposite of what you say...

Look at last months figures for this same poll

Hillary up 4 to tie Obama (statistically), Richardson up 2, Edwards and Obama down 3...

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William769

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Wed Jun-27-07 03:21 PM
Response to Reply #1

2. ...

:wow:

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rinsd

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Wed Jun-27-07 03:22 PM
Response to Reply #1

4. But its still a nice trend!

Edited on Wed Jun-27-07 03:22 PM by rinsd

:hi:

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mckeown1128

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Wed Jun-27-07 03:31 PM
Response to Reply #1

7. Every time I post poll results you tell me that the average is

more important... why didn't you mention that this time....hmmm...could it be because This poll lowers Clinton's and raises Edward's and Obama's averages....hmmm

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_primaries.html

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SaveElmer

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Wed Jun-27-07 03:35 PM
Response to Reply #7

8. Another misleading subject from an Obama supporter...

What a surprise...

Clearly, if you had meant to indicate an average of all polls you would have said so...but you did not...

What you did was post a single month of a single poll...the trend of which is the exact opposite of what you claimed...

In the one poll that in the past showed Hillary clearly in third, now shows her tied with Obama...

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mckeown1128

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Wed Jun-27-07 04:21 PM
Response to Reply #8

20. Ignore my evidence because it doesn't suit you...

once again...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_primaries.html

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mckeown1128

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Wed Jun-27-07 04:21 PM
Response to Reply #8

21. duplicate...nt

Edited on Wed Jun-27-07 04:23 PM by mckeown1128

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Adelante

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Wed Jun-27-07 03:21 PM
Response to Original message

3. Methodology

Below are the results of a three-day poll in the state of Iowa. Results are based on telephone interviews with 600 likely Republican cacus goers and 600 likely Democratic cacus goers, aged 18+, and conducted June 22-24, 2007. The margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

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wyldwolf

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Wed Jun-27-07 03:25 PM
Response to Reply #3

5. So Clinton is up, Obama is down, and they've met, statistically, in the middle

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mckeown1128

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Wed Jun-27-07 03:29 PM
Response to Reply #5

6. that isn't true...

This poll lowers Clinton's average and raises Edward's and Obama's averages.

Sorry to burst your bubble.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_primaries.html

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wyldwolf

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Wed Jun-27-07 03:35 PM
Response to Reply #6

9. sorry to burst YOUR bubble, but the topic is the strategic vision poll. YOUR OP, not mine

Edited on Wed Jun-27-07 03:36 PM by wyldwolf

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mckeown1128

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Wed Jun-27-07 03:59 PM
Response to Reply #9

10. Don't tell me what my topic is thank you...

But if you want to get picky when the facts don't match your claims.... The topic was ONLY about this one poll... so bringing up the last poll by this pollster is off topic...if you want to get picky

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wyldwolf

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Wed Jun-27-07 04:01 PM
Response to Reply #10

11. someone has to. You made an OP, then obviously forgot what it was about.

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mckeown1128

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Wed Jun-27-07 04:20 PM
Response to Reply #11

18. Ohh I was just responding to your ignoring my evidence

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_primaries.html

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wyldwolf

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Wed Jun-27-07 04:55 PM
Response to Reply #18

31. you've presented no evidence in regards to your OP

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rinsd

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Wed Jun-27-07 04:58 PM
Response to Reply #31

32. Not just the OP, even his "averages" claim is wrong.

The poll RCP kicked out to make their latest 5 average was the last Strategic Visions poll.

IOW, the new averages reflect the new poll with Hillary up, Obama down.

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rinsd

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Wed Jun-27-07 04:03 PM
Response to Reply #10

12. The subject line in your OP was wrong.

"so bringing up the last poll by this pollster is off topic"

Not really when you insinutated there was a trend completely contrary to evidence available.

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mckeown1128

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Wed Jun-27-07 04:18 PM
Response to Reply #12

15. I applied evidence....but was told it was off topic...

you can't have it both ways....

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_primaries.html

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rinsd

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Wed Jun-27-07 04:33 PM
Response to Reply #15

25. Who wants to have it both ways?

You made a mistake and continue to look more foolish with each successive post.

And here's one that's really gonna be embarrassing.

You claim this new poll has affected the RCP averages and it has. Just not in the way you think.

The poll RCP bumped out to have their average of 5 polls was the last Strategic Visions poll.

Hillary and Richardson have improved their standing in the new Strategic visions poll hence their averages went UP.

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SaveElmer

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Wed Jun-27-07 04:10 PM
Response to Reply #10

14. Caught red handed and still won't admit it...

"Edwards and Obama Pass Clinton in Iowa" - Your Subject...correct?

Now I don't know if you know what the word "pass" means, but it implies "motion"...one poll cannot show motion...that would require two or more...

The only way this poll can be used to show motion is to use the last poll conducted...which clearly shows that the motion is UP for Hillary and Richardson, and DOWN for Obama and Edwards...

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mckeown1128

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Wed Jun-27-07 04:18 PM
Response to Reply #14

16. Ignoring something...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_primaries.html

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SaveElmer

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Wed Jun-27-07 04:20 PM
Response to Reply #16

19. SOmething you posted after being called out on your incorrect subject...nt

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mckeown1128

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Wed Jun-27-07 04:22 PM
Response to Reply #19

22. You are just ignoring the evidence presented. nt

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SaveElmer

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Wed Jun-27-07 04:24 PM
Response to Reply #22

23. As usual you are simply trying to have it both ways...this poll

Is bad news, not good for Obama...

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mckeown1128

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Wed Jun-27-07 04:37 PM
Response to Reply #23

26. I guess you haven't clicked on the link I provided. nt

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rinsd

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Wed Jun-27-07 04:39 PM
Response to Reply #26

28. I have and I just disproved it.

Now will you just admit you're wrong and be done with it.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=3342074&mesg_id=3342264

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rinsd

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Wed Jun-27-07 04:06 PM
Response to Reply #6

13. The two candidates trending upwards in IA are Clinton and Richardson.

Both Edwards and Obama have seen a slight downturn.

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mckeown1128

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Wed Jun-27-07 04:19 PM
Response to Reply #13

17. Not if you average all the polls of course

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_primaries.html

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rinsd

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Wed Jun-27-07 04:27 PM
Response to Reply #17

24. Which polls now? You just linked to averages of nationals but your OP dealt with IA.

Here's the average of IA polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html

Look at the same polls from the avergae taken a month ago.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html#polls

Both Clinton and Richardson have made gains while Edwards and Obama seen a slight downturn.

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mckeown1128

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Wed Jun-27-07 04:39 PM
Response to Reply #24

29. wow if you looked right underneath the national average...

it has the Iowa average...but good try.

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rinsd

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Wed Jun-27-07 04:43 PM
Response to Reply #29

30. Linking to the direct IA page could have alleviated some confusion.

But I guess when you are so wrong, you have to dance around.

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mckeown1128

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Wed Jun-27-07 05:12 PM
Response to Reply #13

33. You can't deny the fact that this poll is better than the average

just because it knocked a better poll off of the list doesn't matter. I can pull a million OLD polls that show the candidates all over the place. The point is that amoung the MOST RECENT polls this is an improvement for Obama and Edwards. :)

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rinsd

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Wed Jun-27-07 05:14 PM
Response to Reply #33

34. Except the most recent polls do not show that.

You are a fierce advocate for your candidate and I respect that but you made a goof here and have only made it worse in your succeeding posts.

Seriously, just let it go.

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mckeown1128

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Wed Jun-27-07 05:21 PM
Response to Reply #34

36. I'll spell it out for you.

the average for in Iowa

Obama 19.5
Edwards 25.5
Clinton 24.3

The most recent poll

Obama 21
Edwards 26
Clinton 20

Wow! The poll I quoted is better than how the candidates HAVE been doing... Do you get it now?

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rinsd

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Wed Jun-27-07 05:26 PM
Response to Reply #36

37. So your point isn't wrong, its just nonsensical.

Got it now.

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rinsd

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Wed Jun-27-07 04:38 PM
Response to Reply #6

27. Except it doesn't.

RCP averages the last 5 polls.

The poll they bumped out for the new Strategic Visions poll was the last Strategic Vision poll.

Hillary and Richardson gained in that new poll and Obama and Edwards lost.

Hence their subsequent averages also reflect gains for Hillary and Richardson and lost ground for Edwards and Obama.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html#polls

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zulchzulu

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Wed Jun-27-07 05:14 PM
Response to Original message

35. It's only seven months away...

I know that the Obama Iowa team are getting a lot of support and are getting the ground game to be pretty solid. I plan on being there for the first Obama victory.

:party:

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