Barack Obama has discovered another way to challenge Hillary Clinton's aura of inevitability: cash. Obama edged ahead of Clinton in fundraising, making a powerful impression on Democrats, especially because he did it with so many small contributors. Obama appears to be leading a genuine grassroots movement that could take on the party establishment.
Democrats really have two front-runners, not one: Obama in fundraising, Clinton in the polls. Moreover, the national polls don't mean a great deal when there is no national primary.
In Iowa, Clinton and John Edwards are in a close race. An Edwards victory in Iowa would throw the Democratic race wide open. Clinton would then rely on New Hampshire to restore her frontrunner standing.
But an upset is possible there, too. Obama is doing well among New Hampshire Independents, who can vote in the Democratic primary. If Edwards were to beat Clinton in Iowa and Obama were to beat Clinton in New Hampshire, her aura of inevitability would be shattered. Then what would happen?
Then it would come down to South Carolina, where African-American voters could be the Clinton firewall. The latest CNN-Opinion Research Corporation poll shows Clinton with a solid 16-point lead among black Democrats in South Carolina (and a 14-point lead among all Palmetto State Democrats).
http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/07/23/sc.debate.preview/index.html