Kerry inching up in NH

John Kerry Improves in New Hampshire Poll
15 minutes ago

By ELIZABETH WOLFE, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - Howard Dean (news - web sites) maintained his grip on the top spot in New Hampshire, but presidential rival John Kerry (news - web sites) inched up slightly, according to a survey of likely Democratic primary voters.

Forty-five percent of those questioned preferred Dean as the party's nominee, the same as two weeks ago. But Kerry, the Massachusetts senator, solidified his spot at No. 2, rising from 13 percentage points to 20 percentage points, within weeks of the state's Jan. 27 primary.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20031218/ap_on_el_pr/democrats_polls_2

Link to the ARG poll:

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/

These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of registered Democrats and undeclared voters in New Hampshire saying they will definitely vote in the Democratic primary on January 27. This sample includes 426 Democrats (71%) and 174 undeclared voters (29%). The interviews were conducted December 15 through 17, 2003. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.


Candidate, Dec 17 '03, Dec 3 '03
Carol Moseley Braun 0% 0%
Wesley Clark 8% 11%
Howard Dean 45% 45%
John Edwards 2% 3%
Dick Gephardt 3% 5%
John Kerry 20% 13%
Dennis Kucinich 1% 2%
Joe Lieberman 6% 5%
Al Sharpton 0% 1%
Undecided 15% 15%

gaining seven points. Clark dropped three points. I always figured that Kerry, despite everything, would not come in third in NH. I still think that.

But poor undecided has now dropped to third. ;-)

do you suppose are really undecided. I mean, are they REALLY undecided, or do they just keep their cards close to their vest?

Inquiring minds want to know....

Of the 15% of likely Democratic primary voters undecided in their preference for president, 56% have a favorable opinion of Dean, 41% have a favorable opinion of Kerry, and 29% have a favorable opinion of Lieberman.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/

Sorry, it didn't say if ANY undecideds were for Clark. :shrug:

No secondplace finish in NH will limit his competitiveness on February third.

I want Kerry for #2, but you'd think with Clark pulling out of IA to focus on NH you would not see him sliding.

Will third place in NH hurt Clark going into SC?

going into SC, but he will have to win SC to be taken seriously after that. He has a good shot at SC. There are a lot of undecided voters there that can really keep candidates on their toes.

Bouncing, not sliding. And Kerry was bouncing not sliding last time. And next time... who knows? Clark has to beat Gep, Edwards and Lieberman. Beating Kerry would be a remarkable and wondrous thing from my perspective. I still have hopes for it. The national polls are fluctuating dramatically now as well.

Clark is down 3 points, which is why I asked what he is waiting for since Kerry was up so much.

To bounce up, you have to first be going
down, or else how could you bounce up? All
it is is General is on the down part of his
bounce.

I'm still stunned by Dean's lead, but Kerry really is the competitor there, not Clark.

All the "bouncing ball" polls seem to prove that things are more fluid than many believe, both Nationally and in individual States. Unsettled might be another word for it, here today, gone tommorrow...

And, this poll show the high favorables among undecides got to Dean, Kerry, and Lieberman (in that order).

Didn't show stats in this category for Clark.

I'm sure he has something planned.

;-)

Oh boy. I'll bet there's something explosive coming down the pike.

How much money has he dumped into NH?

Low funds and fanatical supporters can only get you so far- and for Clark that looks like thrid place.

n/t

On the other thread I stood corrected about you wanting Kerry to knoock out Clark, when you replied that Clark is your second choice. That might well be, but it doesn't mean you don't want Kerry to knock out Clark, if you see Clark as a greater threat to Dean than Kerry. For someone backing another candidate, you have shown a keen interest today in making a number of posts on several threads commenting on the rivalry between Clark and Kerry, wondering when are those two going to start fighting each other more vigorously? You also have been especially interested in whatever "attacks" one might be making on the other. Some might call that "stirring the pot".

I am sure that you realize that Kerry coming in second to Dean in NH will not significantly threaten your candidate Dean, since that is what everyone has expected for months. On the other hand Clark untill recently was safely mired back in the pack. I understand why someone with your overall preference might want Kerry to do relatively well in NH, since no one thinks he can actually win there at this point. Clark though can still gain momentum out of NH, and thus is more of a threat to Dean I believe.

You seem attached to believing that Clark now suddenly "needs" to come in second in NH. Is that what you really think? I have not heard anyone anywhere put forth that proposition other than Dean supporters today. It was only a week ago that people were surprised and somewhat excited that Clark was running third. That is the current political buzz, turning it into Clark is done for if he doesn't finish second is quite a slight of hand. If Clark did actually come in second in NH it would be a political earthquake.

The CNN stuff got me thinking about Kerry and Clark- that's all.

I think they're both good guys- a credit to our shared values. Clark really is my second choice- maybe because I'm a former Soldier, but Kerry and Clark both have appeal for me.

I'm genuinely curious how their tie for seconf place right now will effect their individual strategies.

My names isn't Patrick.

I have been making mistakes responding to your posts haven't I? My eyes are just about good enough to have no real trouble reading the threads on my computer screen, but the gray underlying folk's names throws me off just enough to trick me into seeing what I expect to be there. Patriot morphed to Patrick on me.

Actually Kerry is now back to being my second choice, slightly edging out Dean who I like also and who is a close third for me. I'm sorry that I've been overreacting with you. I have just been surprised by the sudden appearance of "Clark will be a disapointment if he doesn't come in second in NH" type posts. It really is a radical new "spin" in my experience. The buzz has been migrating from Clark is a non player, to Clark might pull off third place in NH, to maybe there is a chance Clark can actually come in second - wouldn't that be a shocker, to some statements here now that Clark is finished if he DOESN'T come in second in NH. Since it really is a classic political ploy to manipulate expectations, I am supicious about it. Remember Bush "won" the first debate with Gore because it was thought Bush didn't make a total fool out of himself. Conversely Gore lost by "only winning", rather than destroying Bush there.

The bottom line for these two men is Kerry has to beat Clark in his "backyard" state of New Hampshire, and Clark has to beat Kerry in the southern state of South Carolina. Each can trail the other in their respective weaker states if they still make a respectable showing, while also making a strong showing in the state it is assumed they should do well in.

"At least second"?

That's an interesting approach. Is that kinda like saying "Anyone who looses in NH is over?".

How much money has he dumped into NH?

Much less than some of the other candidates, considering he's sticking to the matching funds spending limits.

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

let's set the bar high enough that it looks like he is failing ploy. I don't mean that in a snide way, God knows it'a all part of the political games involving managed expectations. Clark coming in second would be a big positive upset for him, spelling near certain doom for Kerry. Clark's campaign all along set the bar at beating out all of the non native New Englanders, which could mean 4th. Third would be a very solid finish for Clark. The obvious question is, how much money has Kerry dumped inte NH, eh?

I really think Kerry's campaign is starting to get exciting!

although his number has shot up to 23%- that honor goes to:

Al Sharpton at 51%, followed by
Lieberman at.. 40%, and sadly,
Dennis Kucnich 28%.

I don't get that at all. And Dean's 72% favorable is very impressive, while Kerry's has fallen to 51%. (But that's the price of going negative.)

Why am I not surprised? :)

:shrug:

Seems they are splitting the 'tough on foreigh policy' vote?

Good on Kerry though :toast:

to be able to wait until SC to pull out the big guns.

And the indications are that SC is going to be close, no one candidate is going to run away with it probably.

The winners in IA and NH (could be Dean in both, or Gep and Dean, or conceivably Kerry in either or both) will get a bump that will certainly help them in SC. In such a tight race, that's not good for Clark.

You just wait and see.

is his message getting lost?

between the Dec. 3 poll and the Dec. 17 poll. Clark, Edwards, Gephardt, Kucinich and Sharpton lose a combined 8 points. 7 go to Kerry and 1 to Lieberman.