How Does Republican US Senator Norm Coleman Look For Re-Election? You Can Argue It Both Ways: In an election for United States Senator from Minnesota today, 7/30/07, 463 days to the vote, incumbent Republican Norm Coleman defeats any one of three possible Democratic challengers in head-to-head matchups, according to SurveyUSA election polls conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV Minneapolis, WDIO-TV Duluth and KAAL-TV Rochester.
Coleman defeats celebrity Al Franken today by 7 points. Coleman defeats attorney Mike Ciresi today by 6 points, and Coleman defeats activist Jim Cohen today by 12 points. But, there are "buts": But #1: Coleman's support does not top 49% in any matchup. Some see an incumbent at less than 50% as significant. But #2: In an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll 5 months ago, Coleman defeated Franken by 22 points. Today, Coleman defeats Franken by 7. Compared to February, Coleman is down 8, Franken is up 7.
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Among women, against Franken, Coleman led by 9 in February, trails by 8 in July, a 17-point swing to the Democrat. Among women, against Ciresi, Coleman led by 6 in February, trails by 12 in July, an 18-point swing to the Democrat. Among Independents, against Franken, Coleman led by 25, now leads by 6. Among Independents, against Ciresi, Coleman led by 25, now leads by 5.
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Filtering: 700 Minnesota adults were interviewed 7/26/07 through 7/29/07. Of them 628 were registered to vote in Minnesota and were included in this survey. This is not a survey of "Likely Voters," this is a survey of "Registered Voters." SurveyUSA will switch to Likely Voters once the Democratic challenger has been identified. Context: In 2006, the Democrats took from Republicans control of the United States Senate, but only by a 1-vote majority. Whether Republicans re-capture control of the U.S. Senate in 2008, or Democrats maintain control, will hinge on how Norm Coleman, and several other incumbent Republicans, do in re-election contests. This contest has national repercussions.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6268424d-fbb9-4bb8-8667-d383a80359ce