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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 11:16 PM
Original message
Zogby: Hillary surges to lead in Iowa...
Edited on Mon Aug-20-07 11:16 PM by SaveElmer

Hillary 30
Edwards 23
Obama 19



After months of nipping at the heels of former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards among likely Iowa Democratic caucus–goers, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has made a move to the top of the heap in the race for her party's presidential nomination, a new NewsMax/Zogby telephone poll shows.

Clinton's move up in Iowa replicates what she has done nationally, building a powerhouse campaign and benefiting in part from the positive opinions of her husband, the survey shows.

Clinton leads with 30% support, followed by Edwards at 23% and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama at 19%. She added six points to her column since the last Zogby Iowa polling in May, while Edwards and Obama have each lost three points during the same time period.

The Zogby telephone survey was conducted August. 17–19, 2007, and included 503 likely Democratic caucus–goers in Iowa. The margin of error is +/– 4.5 percentage points.


http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2007/8/20/201526.shtml?s=lh

Note: Newsmax commissioned the poll which is the ONLY reason I would ever put a link to them here...

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DURHAM D Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 11:20 PM
Response to Original message
1. Oh Dear !
This is going to piss some people off.
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BenDavid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 11:25 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Yesterday when Judas Maximus aka as
George S. said the three top candidates were tied statistally, I knew that was wrong from the get go....HRC has had a lead in Iowa for about 3 weeks or so.
I thank you for posting this
Ben David
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David Dunham Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 11:31 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. Obama's toast and fading fast
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DURHAM D Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 11:34 PM
Response to Reply #2
6. Yes - Little George still acting like a peeved little shrimp.
I also wondered if they were playing around with the volume on her ear piece. I would not put anything, and I mean anything, past him.
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 11:31 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. Yeah think it probably will...nt
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DURHAM D Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 11:37 PM
Response to Reply #4
8. Did you see where she also won the State Fair poll -
the one where you drop a kernel of corn in a jar.
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 11:39 PM
Response to Reply #8
12. I did see that...
Edited on Mon Aug-20-07 11:39 PM by SaveElmer
I'm waiting for the inevitable claim that Hillary had it rigged somehow...

:rofl:

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emilyg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 11:45 PM
Response to Reply #12
17. LOL - Thank you for posting.
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CoffeeCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 12:10 AM
Response to Reply #17
30. Yeah, it's pretty funny...
Edited on Tue Aug-21-07 12:11 AM by TwoSparkles
...and a rollicking good time when a New York Senator and Dem
presidential candidate stands by and does nothing while the
current pResident dismantles our democracy--piece by piece.

Yeah, it's pretty hilarious how Hillary says NOTHING about
Bush circumventing the FISA courts to illegally wiretap
US citizens. Wow, I see why you two are enjoying
yourselves so much! A Dem candidate with nothing to
say about spying on US citizens. It's like a Peter
Bogdonavich film!

It's just side-splitting to watch our pResident amass
power and practically declare himself a dictator who
can deny citizens Habeas and make us stand in free-speech
zones when we have something critical to say! It's
even more hysterical when you realize that Hillary has
said NOTHING about these matters either. What a shame
that I missed all of the laughs before you guys came along!

What a knee-slapping good time it is to watch our country
being stolen by corporations and pay offs to politicians; politicians
like Hillary who take loads of money from big pharma and the
insurance and banking industries. No problem there!
Why...it's like a bottomless coffee cup of joy! Pour me
a second cup!

Why, I practically doubled over when Junior came out of the
woodwork to tout war with Iran! What was Hillary's response?
She practically backed up Bush's plan, talking about how dangerous
Iran is and how "war with Iran is not off the table". I forget...
did she make these comments before or after she refused to renounce
her Iraq war as Kerry and Kennedy did? It's just SO funny, that
it's confusing!

Yep. Laugh it up fuzzball. We're sliding into Fascism and
the supposed-leading Dem candidate, has next to nothing to say
about the way this perverse pResident has trashed our entire
nation, our civil rights, the Constitution and our standing in the
world.

If you can have a glib attitude about that, then I guess I can
believe that Hillary is the candidate for you. You have fun
with that.

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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 12:11 AM
Response to Reply #30
31. Someone needs to go to their happy place...nt
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CoffeeCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 12:16 AM
Response to Reply #31
32. Someone needs a reality check...
...and to get out in the fresh air and start thinking clearly--without
your "I love Hillary!" crossed-stitch pillow, that is.

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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 12:18 AM
Response to Reply #32
33. Ok...now that was funny...very good...
Edited on Tue Aug-21-07 12:19 AM by SaveElmer
But it's embroidered...not cross stitched!!!
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CoffeeCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 12:22 AM
Response to Reply #33
34. ...and you've got...
Edited on Tue Aug-21-07 12:23 AM by TwoSparkles
...Hillary's face bedazzled on the back of your Members Only jacket, too...am I right?

I've so got you pegged.



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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 12:25 AM
Response to Reply #34
35. Members Only? Oh come on...
Get real...wouldn't be caught dead in a Members Only jacket...
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CoffeeCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 12:28 AM
Response to Reply #35
36. No Members Only?
How about Garanimals?

You could bedazzle Garanimals.
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 12:29 AM
Response to Reply #36
37. Nahhhh...I'm more of a baseball jersey and jeans kind of person...
But if it makes you feel better I don't agree with Hillary on everything...

I hate both the Yankees and Cubs!!!
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CoffeeCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 12:39 AM
Response to Reply #37
38. Well, this has spiraled into a fascinating...
...dissertation on fashion.

I suppose this conversation could have veered into far worse directions, right?

I'd still like to understand how a progressive Democrat can support a candidate who has been silent and lacking
passion for critical issues that directly concern the fall of this nation's democracy.
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 12:42 AM
Response to Reply #38
39. She hasn't...
But we will have to save that for a different thread!
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CoffeeCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 12:48 AM
Response to Reply #39
40. True...
I'll look forward to that.

:)
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JTFrog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 04:50 AM
Response to Reply #39
45. No really, enlighten us with some facts for a change.
It would be refreshing.
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Punkingal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 05:15 AM
Response to Reply #30
47. Well said!!!!!!!
I wish I could nominate your post for the greatest page! In fact, why don't you make it a thread on its own?
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CoffeeCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 11:34 PM
Response to Original message
5. No surprise that newsmax...
Edited on Mon Aug-20-07 11:36 PM by TwoSparkles
...would tout these numbers from a Zogby poll.

The vast-right-wing conspiracy wants a Hillary nomination. I'll come right out
and say that I think most of these polls are bunk. Total bunk.

I'm from Iowa. I belong to a local Dem group. No one supports Hillary. No one.

I see Richardson signs around my area and in Des Moines. I've also seen Ron Paul
and other bumper stickers touting Edwards and Obama. I haven't spotted anything
with Hillary on it. Nothing. Yes, I know that's anecdotal, but I am not finding
that reality stacks up with these "Hillary dominates" polls. She dominates nothing
in the real world.

Think about it. These bastards stole the exit polls in the elections. They were
able to hide those results. The MSM is salivating for a Hillary run and they
leverage her at every turn. BushCo is decimating our Constitution our civil
rights and turning our democracy upside down.

Is is really off the mark---given these facts--to suggest that maybe these media-touted
Hillary polls are fixed or fabricated???

Does anyone think that these perverse neocons--who would sacrifice our own soldiers and
slaughter innocent Iraqis--are beyond fixing polls and organizing a publicity campaign
that showcases these polls, to affect the election????

For once, I'd just like to meet a real-life Hillary supporter. Just once! Maybe then
I'll start believing!

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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 11:37 PM
Response to Reply #5
9. You have effectively...
Used every bogus argument, conspiracy theory, and theory of the superiority of anecdotal story over science, that is marshaled against any evidence that Hillary is popular...

Have you perchance spotted Big Foot too?

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CoffeeCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 11:41 PM
Response to Reply #9
14. Does the Hillary campaign...
...pay you by the post or are you paid hourly?
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 11:47 PM
Response to Reply #14
21. Wow...took thirty minutes for someone to ask me that...as I have said before...
Hillary pays me in bumper stickers, T-Shirts, and Buttons...so I can be counted as a donor!!!
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emilyg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 11:47 PM
Response to Reply #5
19. Want to meet me? I love Hillary.
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DURHAM D Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 11:56 PM
Response to Reply #19
25. She's my girl too. eom
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juajen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 12:05 AM
Response to Reply #19
29. Yep, she's my girl!
Love her muchly.
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Alamom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 04:12 AM
Response to Reply #29
44. Me too. Thanks for posting, SE. eom
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elizm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 04:00 AM
Response to Reply #5
43. You're not alone. Been saying the same here in SC. nt
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BeyondGeography Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 11:34 PM
Response to Original message
7. The obvious point to make here is this is a pre-Iowa debate poll
Edited on Mon Aug-20-07 11:34 PM by BeyondGeography
taken before the very favorable performance and reviews by Yepsen/Des Moines Register and other local media of Obama on Sunday could be reflected in public opinion.
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sampsonblk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 11:39 PM
Response to Reply #7
13. Obama gets the win, Clinton gets the bump in the polls.
Obama always gets a positive review, but Clinton always gets the bump in the polls. If she was ahead before the debate, she will likely be further ahead next week.

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draft_mario_cuomo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 12:03 AM
Response to Reply #7
28. You guys are putting a lot of faith in one debate to reverse this:
Edited on Tue Aug-21-07 12:13 AM by draft_mario_cuomo


The debate may help him a little in Iowa but it won't make much of an impact. He has been running ads in Iowa practically all summer, resorted to the IWR card, and look at what has happened. He also poured more than 4 times more money than Edwards and thrice as much as Clinton into Iowa during the last quarter. For some reason, despite his regional advantage, he is struggling in Iowa. He is doing well in NH and SC, though. His message just does not seem to be getting traction in Iowa, which unfortunately for him is the first state to vote (and he is stagnant in Nevada as well while Edwards and Richardson are rising. Nevada is the second state caucus...). Still, he is not totally dead. He is 10-11 points out of the lead in Iowa which is hardly an insurmountable deficit. However, right now what Obama should be focusing on in Iowa is holding off Richardson for 3rd rather than the lead. He is much closer to 4th than he is to 2nd in Iowa...

It will be interesting to see what Rass' daily tracking poll shows tomorrow. That will be the first post-debate data...
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Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 11:37 PM
Response to Original message
10. If this is reflected in upcoming polls (post-debate polls), then we can talk
This one is as valid as the one that has Obama head by a point.
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 11:38 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. Don't forget the corn poll...
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Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 11:44 PM
Response to Reply #11
16. What is a corn poll?
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 11:46 PM
Response to Reply #16
18. Go to the thread I linked too...
From the Iowa state fair!
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Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 11:47 PM
Response to Reply #18
20. What's the margin of error in the "corn poll"?
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 11:48 PM
Response to Reply #20
22. Depends on the rainfall that season I guess...nt
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DURHAM D Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 11:54 PM
Response to Reply #22
24. Thanks for the chuckle. eom
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JTFrog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 04:52 AM
Response to Reply #16
46. Oooooo, can
I please answer that one and tell folks what they can do with it? *smirk smirk smirk*
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Captain Hilts Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 11:42 PM
Response to Original message
15. Ignore! nt
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Hippo_Tron Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 11:53 PM
Response to Original message
23. I'll wait to see if other polls look like this
Seems like a huge change since other polls are showing a dead heat.
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countmyvote4real Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 11:56 PM
Response to Original message
26. MSM has spoken. Rudy is the next POTUS. Everybody else please go home now.
Amerika is SO fucked.
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draft_mario_cuomo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 12:00 AM
Response to Original message
27. This reverses Edwards and Clinton from last week's poll but has Obama and Richardson at the same lev
It is odd since last week's Hart/McLaughlin poll had Edwards up by 8. I wonder what the screens were for these two polls. What is consistent is that Obama is in the teen's (18% last week, 19% in this one) and Richardson is in the low double digits (13% last week, 10% in this poll).
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 01:09 AM
Response to Reply #27
41. Hillary could weather a close second...
A third place finish at the % he is in in this poll would be bad for him...

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calteacherguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 02:00 AM
Response to Original message
42. Being 7-11 points ahead of the nearest challengers months out doesn't impress me. nt
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Adelante Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 06:27 AM
Response to Original message
48. Most interesting
... A wide majority of those likely Democratic caucus-goers said that, should a Democrat win the White House next year, they would prefer a return to the domestic and foreign policies of the Bill Clinton presidency. While 77% said they agreed with that idea, 16% disagreed. More than a third (36%) said they "strongly agreed" that that would be a good strategy for the next Democratic President."



I couldn't get the Newsmax page to open and the poll wasn't available on Zogby. The above is from a MyDD thread.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/8/20/23274/8097



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William769 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 06:43 AM
Response to Original message
49. The madam vote must be kicking in!
Now thats what big tent politics is all about! :)
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cobalt1999 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 06:45 AM
Response to Original message
50. This was inevitable.
Edited on Tue Aug-21-07 06:47 AM by cobalt1999
Edwards, without the warchests of Hillary and Obama, HAS to win in Iowa/NH/SC(or a very close second) to build momentum in states he is not doing as well in and cannot afford to spend with Hillary/Obama. He has been forced into focusing on three early states and hoping to parlay wins there into a national campaign.

It's not a bad strategy in his situation, but an extremely risky one. The risk with that strategy is that while Hillary and Obama have built a great campaign organization and structure in the other states, at any point they choose, they can bring their money to Iowa and effectively squeeze him out.

Political strategists have seen this one coming from miles away.

*edit for spelling*
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 11:28 AM
Response to Original message
51. IA is getting squirrely. This is the 3rd poll in a row showing divergent results (nt)
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