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Rassmussen poll suggests Edwards was the real winner of Sunday's debate

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draft_mario_cuomo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 03:18 PM
Original message
Rassmussen poll suggests Edwards was the real winner of Sunday's debate
The corporate media, as usual, declared Clobama the winners of Sunday's debate. The corporate media particularly was swooning over Obama's performance. This is a daily tracking poll so take it with a grain of salt but this provides us with the first post-debate data. Surprisingly, a candidate ignored by the corporate media's debate coverage seems to be the one who benefited most from the debate.

Polls the day of the debate (8/19)

Clinton 43%
Obama 23%
Edwards 12%

8/20

Clinton 42%
Obama 22%
Edwards 14%

8/21 (after people saw the debates, the replays, read about it, etc.)

Clinton 41%
Obama 24%
Edwards 15%

Change

Edwards +3
Obama +1
Clinton -2

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history
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saracat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 03:26 PM
Response to Original message
1. Interesting. It appears the one that lost the most was Hillary but all of this is
Edited on Tue Aug-21-07 03:26 PM by saracat
margin of error stuff and it doesn't look like that much of a real change. But I like any upward trend for Edwards!
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draft_mario_cuomo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 03:30 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. There was a lot of hype that Obama would surge after the debate...
...because the CMSM was serving as the public relations arm of the Obama campaign after the debate. Apparently that is not the case. It seems if anyone benefited from the debate it was Edwards. Amazingly, if true, Edwards did this without the support of the corporate media.
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saracat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 03:39 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. Edwards does evrything without the support of MSM.A duer in the Debate audience
said most audience members though Edwards or Obama won the Debate,they thought Edwards had a slight edge over Obama.
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draft_mario_cuomo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 09:10 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. I agree. If he overtakes BO the CMSM will be forced to give him some coverage, though
Thankfully, Edwards is slowly reeling Obama in.
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karynnj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 09:18 PM
Response to Original message
5. Every one of the changes is within the confidence interval
They are not significant. It would be more accurate to say that there was no significant change.
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 09:24 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. And the polls aren't even about the debate anyway.
The OP is not only imagining public opinion trends that don't exist but also inferring such imaginary trends are the result of the candidates' performance in the debate. Ugh...
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draft_mario_cuomo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 09:48 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. It could be the result of the usual ups and downs there are in a daily tracking poll
We shall see what is the case on that. However, the second part of your post is off. If Edwards actually has gained ground what happened over the weekend other than the debate to cause it? Thanks in advance.
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draft_mario_cuomo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 09:46 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. That is why I used several qualifiers. Let's see if this holds up nt
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On the Road Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-22-07 01:28 AM
Response to Reply #5
18. It is Perfectly Accurate to Say That the Polls Show a Change
It is also accurate to say that the chance of the movement being random is more than 5%. Perfectly good for political discussion. We're not publishing academic papers here.
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draft_mario_cuomo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-22-07 10:17 AM
Response to Reply #18
26. The only like discussing polls when Obama is moving up in them nt
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Look My Way Donating Member (81 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 10:35 PM
Response to Original message
9. Gee, I didn't know that there were only 3 Democratic Candidates.
What do you expect from a Republican Leaning Pollster like Rasmussen?
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slick8790 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 10:38 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. There's only 3 in double digits.
When anyone else makes it there, they'll be on there.
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Look My Way Donating Member (81 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 11:04 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. Most people don't even know who's running .
They're thinking about getting the kids back to school.
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slick8790 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 11:17 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. That's not the point.
The point is, right now there's 3 candidates in double digits. They take polls for all candidates, but only post the top few, since it would make spreadsheets cumbersome with all of them, as well as being unnecessary. It talks about any significant gains by lower tier candidates in the article that goes with it.
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Look My Way Donating Member (81 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-21-07 11:41 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. Just for your information.
The top three, Hillary, Obama and Edwards will not win the Democratic Nomination. You can take that to the bank!
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slick8790 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-22-07 12:08 AM
Response to Reply #13
14. and who exactly will?
That's a pretty big statement when the next contender is polling at or around 5%.
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Look My Way Donating Member (81 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-22-07 12:14 AM
Response to Reply #14
15. You want an answer ?
Biden, Gore or Kerry.
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oberliner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-22-07 01:35 AM
Response to Reply #15
20. I think Biden is this cycle's Kerry
Polling about where Kerry did at this time last year. Both intelligent guys with a lot of experience.

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Look My Way Donating Member (81 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-22-07 01:55 AM
Response to Reply #20
21. Right on !
Biden can spring the upset this time. Maybe it's not all about money.
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slick8790 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-22-07 08:44 AM
Response to Reply #15
23. Right.
Kerry has stated he will not run, Gore becomes increasingly more unlikely to enter every day, and Biden? I can't see it happening. 2004 and 2008 are far different. No 2003 contender had as much name recognition as Senator Clinton, and hence not such a big lead. a 21 to 7 point spread is significantly different than a 35ish to 2 or 3 point spread.
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On the Road Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-22-07 01:26 AM
Response to Reply #13
17. I Do NOT Want to Patronize Your Bank
Odds are about 90% one of the three will. Not that I'm very happy with that.

But what I'm seeing is grassroots folks gravitating towards Edwards as the best option. I believe that's accounting for his rise. It hasn't spread to the less informed base, but there is a good chance that Edwards will get another boost shortly before Iowa.

Whether it will be enough is another matter.
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oberliner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-22-07 01:34 AM
Response to Reply #17
19. Nov 3rd, 2003 Poll, Top 4: Dean, Clark, Gephardt, Lieberman
Kerry was 5th with 7 percent, Edwards 7th at 3 percent (one behind Al Sharpton)
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On the Road Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-22-07 09:36 AM
Response to Reply #19
24. That is True
but the campaign started so much earlier this year that it really corresponds to a much later point in the campaign. In August 2003 you did not have all the debates and exposure you have had now. Otherwise, Obama wouldn't have been showing up.

The one person who could change those numbers is Gore, but that seems less and less likely with each passing week.

I can see Edwards making a run. But that's about it.
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TeamJordan23 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-22-07 12:15 AM
Response to Original message
16. Where does Margin of Error fall into your analysis? nm
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calteacherguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-22-07 02:10 AM
Response to Original message
22. Statistically insignificant and probably less than 1 in 1000 watched the debate.
Edited on Wed Aug-22-07 02:12 AM by calteacherguy
And even if the numbers were statistically significant, it would not demonstrate a cause/effect relationship.
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antiimperialist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-22-07 10:10 AM
Response to Original message
25. Why do people think debates are the only factor that moves preferences?
Edited on Wed Aug-22-07 10:11 AM by antiimperialist
That's overly simplistic. A small number of Democrats watch debates, compared to the universe of voting people.
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draft_mario_cuomo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-22-07 10:18 AM
Response to Reply #25
27. What else happened between 8/19 and 8/21 to give Edwards 3 points?
It is simplistic to look at only the number of people who watch debates. You have to look at how many people hear of the debates in the newspaper, television news, radio, water cooler etc. to see the real impact of debates.
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antiimperialist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-22-07 10:25 AM
Response to Reply #27
28. So you mean on days when there is no debate or a special event, numbers will freeze?
Edited on Wed Aug-22-07 10:25 AM by antiimperialist
Poll numbers vary, and there does not have to be a special event for this to occur. What happened during the week that Hillary supposedly went from trailing Giuliani by 1% to trailing him by 7%? Nothing. These are natural variations that occur in a poll. Things are not as simple as you paint them.
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draft_mario_cuomo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-22-07 10:28 AM
Response to Reply #28
30. There is such a thing called news. Candidates are constantly in the news
What they are in the news for influences their numbers.
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JohnLocke Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-22-07 10:26 AM
Response to Original message
29. K&R!
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