John Nichols: Sunshine Primary's Likely, As Is Sped Up Nominating Fight

from The Nation:


BLOG | Posted 08/24/2007 @ 12:30pm
Sunshine Primary's Likely, As Is Sped Up Nominating Fight
John Nichols


Unless you are managing the campaign of a front-running Democrat like Hillary Clinton or a front-running Republican like Mitt Romney or Rudy Giuliani, it is not a good thing that states such as Florida and Michigan are moving to advance their presidential primaries to dates in January, 2008. Front-loading the contest at this point benefits front-runners, as it undermines prospects that grassroots-driven insurgents with genuine momentum might upset contenders with sufficient money and name recognition to dominate early contests and then to move quickly through a busy primary and caucus schedule.

But right does not make might, and the Democratic National Committee -- which is meeting this weekend in the vain hope that a speed-up can be averted by threatening rambunctious state officials and party organizations -- is being reminded of that fact in the bluntest of terms.

DNC chair Howard Dean has been in the forefront of efforts to maintain a somewhat more traditional schedule of caucuses and primaries, which would begin in mid-January with voting in Iowa and New Hampshire and then move to what is likely to be decisive voting in a number of states on February 5.

Dean may have his committee with him, but he won't prevail in the long run -- a fact that some candidates have already acknowledged by shifting schedules and resources toward Floria.

Why won't Dean be able to set the schedule? Because Florida officials are resisting in a manner that is likely to trump anything the DNC does.

...(snip)...

Translation: If the national Democratic and Republican parties attempt to preserve the status of the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary as the "first-in-the-nation" nominating contests, the Florida officials will suggest that the DNC and the Republican National Committee are conspiring to violate the Voting Rights Act and other constitutional protections against race-based discrimination in the electoral process.

Iowa and New Hampshire are overwhelmingly white states -- well over 90 percent in each case. Florida, on the other hand, has a population that is almost 20 percent Hispanic, 16 percent African-American and two percent Asian. Michigan, with its substantial and politically-powerful African-American community and a well-established Hispanic population, is similarly diverse; and its officials are likely to defend their move to establish a mid-January primary by pressing a claim like that mentioned by the Florida officials. .....(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.thenation.com/blogs/campaignmatters?bid=45&pid=226348

As does Iowa and New Hampshire. They don't have a birthright to the beginning of the primary season. Screw em!