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I sent him the following from a "person on the street" perspective: (sorry - it's long.....)
To quote Betty Davis: Fasten your seatbelts . . . it's gonna be a bumpy ride"
On the right we have the “I’m more holier than thou” and contestants from “To Tell the Truth” all claiming to be Ronald Reagan. On the left we have a food fightbetween Clinton / Obama, with Edwards tossing some pudding just to keep things interesting.
THE RIGHT: Thompson is supposedly "officially" jumping into the mix around labor day. I wouldn't be surprised if he shoots straight to the top of the pack with a bullet.
He's perceived as being "outside" of the pack, and with no bush/cheney connections. HOWEVER - according to a couple of articles buried on back pages - Thompson is pretty tight with the bush family, and it was hinted the bushes are backing him. If this connection receives more media attention, it could sink him in the long run, but I doubt if it will get much play.
A poll among republican/conservative voters a 2-3 weeks back showed they favored “NONE OF THE ABOVE” when given a list of the official republican candidates. Thompson “won” the poll when his name was added.
Rudy and Mitt will have a run for their money when Thompson officially announces. We may see sniping/swiping between Rudy/Mitt and Thompson similar to the Clinton/Obama/Edwards show.
Yes, lots can happen between now and then – but with the primaries being moved, Thompson will have the shortest time between announcing and the actual primary. This means, less time and less chance of a severe or fatal stumble.
The Republicans are all singing the same tune, the lyrics may vary slightly, but the song is the same - Stay the course (in Iraq), Bomb Iran, Kill the Terrorists, Cut Taxes, Deport Immigrants, and Privatize Everything. This is all being chanted at a séance ritual where they are trying to raise the ghost of Reagan.
That being said – my money is on Thompson for the republican nomination.
THE LEFT: The Democrats also have their own variation of a song - Out of Iraq, Talks with Iran, do something about terrorism, raise taxes on the rich, fix infrastructure, break oil habit, and mend foreign relations. Blame it on the media or not - the individual messages are lost in the snipes/swipes between Clinton and Obama, with Edwards poking them both just to keep things interesting.
I know Edwards is in 3rd place, but I think we will see him pass Obama in the next 3-4 weeks. Obama's inexperience with campaigning at this level is showing, and he's lost the momentum.
Clinton: I said it back when she jumped into the Senatorial race, and I'll say it again. A run for president in 2008 would be too soon, 2012 or 2016 would have been a better year. There's still too much CLINTON hate among the middle-road conservatives, and sadly she's going to be carrying Bill's baggage.
There's also the dynasty thing being circulated - "bush-Clinton-bush-Clinton". If Clinton does get the nomination - look for this to be part of the republican's stump speeches. It's a good way to torpedo the "time for change" message the Democrats are trying to push. How can things change if they stay the same?
The "CHANGE" message is in deep trouble for all Democrats, not only in the presidential campaigns, but also in the House/Senate races. Given the way the Democrats are being perceived as caving-in to the bushies, the general consensus among the Dem-supporters is that the only the name on the door has changed.
OBAMA: As I previously mentioned, his inexperience with campaigning at this level is showing and hurting him. Fair or not, he's being cast as inexperienced and naive. Although it's not being said - his "high-point" was his speech at the 2004 Democratic convention, and he's failed to meet expectations. He needs to refocus his campaign - put some distance between himself and the "inexperienced/naive" image and avoid the snipes/swipes fights with Hillary.
I doubt this will happen, and Obama will probably drop out after the 2nd round of primaries.
As far as the rest of the pack goes, the best they can hope for would be a shot at VP slot. Assuming the Dem nominee would chose from the dem candidates – I’d say Richardson or Biden are on the list. Richardson because he’s Hispanic and has foreign relation experience. Biden because he has foreign relation experience and his congressional connections – but Biden has his own baggage to overcome.
Kucinich? He has balls and spine, but it's a catch-22 situation. People won't support him because they think he's unelectable, and he's unelectable because people won't support him. At least he's trying to keep the rest honest.
In the last Dem debate there was some subtle “winks/nods” between Clinton and Biden – might be nothing, but then again….. My money is on a Richardson pick for VP.
THE LEAP-FROG PRIMARIES: In a nutshell – ARRRRGGGHHHH. Stupid, stupid, stupid. Everyone wants to be first, if this continues we’ll be having the 2012 primaries the day after the 2008 primaries.
And what’s up the Dems shooting themselves in the foot over the Florida delegates. Talk about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory mentality. I’m sure the republicans are tickled pink about this development.
Just my 2-cents – either there should be 1 national primary day, or go to a rotating group of primaries. Divide the states up by region (Northeast, South, Midwest, West coast) or by some other category and have each group’s primary 2 weeks apart. Each group would be rotated to “first primary slot” in successive presidential primary years.
Example: In this year’s primary the Northeast group would be first. In the primaries for 2012 race, the South would be first, and the northeast would go to the bottom on the list. In 2016, the Midwest would be first, followed by west coast, then northeast and the south. This way no one region/state would have a consistent advantage over another.
If dividing it up by region doesn’t make sense, then use electoral votes, as evenly divided as possible into 4 or 5 groups. This way states with smaller electoral votes would be grouped in with the larger electoral vote states.
As for me personally, I’m still firmly in the Too-Dang Early and Still-Too-Dang Early camp. That I don’t like any of the Republicans goes without saying. I’m not thrilled with any the Democratic candidates either. If the Pennsylvania primary were today, I’d be staring at the touch screen, and with a big sigh, probably vote for Kuchinich because he’s the only one showing some balls and backbone.
I know a 3rd party candidate doesn’t stand a chance of actually winning, but I think there will be one which will make the damage Perot inflicted back in ’92 look like kindergarten. Based on a couple of articles – the 3rd party candidate may be Bloomberg (NYC-mayor) – if so, the damage will hit both major parties.
Once the parties have settled on a nominee - it's going to be an anti-campaign season. Anti-bush/cheney, anti-republican VS anti-Clinton, anti-democrat. Votes will be cast AGAINST "X" as opposed to being FOR "X". Dirty politics will trump issues because DIRT WORKS.
One thing the Dem nominee can't afford to do is to take the HIGH ROAD and ignore seemingly stupid and insignificant attacks (i.e. Clinton's cleavage, Edwards hair, or even brand/style of underwear). Whoever the nominee is, will need to smack back, and smack back hard.
For instance let's say it's a Thompson-Edwards race, Thompson brings up Edwards haircut, Edwards needs to highlight that slamming him for a haircut has nothing to do with the issues, and then snark something like "I don't know why Fred Thompson wants to discuss my hair, maybe he's jealous that I do have hair. In all seriousness, his obsession with my hair makes me wonder if this is indicative of how he would run the white house, is his focus going to be the issues that matter, or will he try to regulate the barber business and put price caps on haircuts?"
If it's a Thompson-Clinton race, Clinton needs to get out front, refute the slams and demand an apology and a correction. She needs to say she bases her decisions on fact not fantasy, and when Thompson fails to apologize she can say something like "I'm disappointed that Fred Thompson won't apologize and admit a mistake....he sounds like someone else we all know and have experienced over the past 8 years...."
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