Chris Bowers: Electability Data Does Not Support Anti-Clinton Electability Narratives

(After poll analysis and number crunching provided at the link below...)

Here are my thoughts on all of this data:

* Clinton’s deficit in general election matchups against Rudy Giuliani, relative to Obama and Edwards, has entirely disappeared in non-Rasmussen polls. While she once clearly performed worse than Edwards and Obama in non-Rasmussen general election trial heats against Rudy Giuliani, that is no longer the case. In fact, now she performs slightly better than Edwards and Obama in non-Rasmussen polls.
* Different polls are stronger for some candidates than they are for others. For example, the LA Times / Bloomberg poll is far worse for Clinton than it is for Obama and Edwards. The reasons for this are not entirely clear, but are probably connected to an oversampling of certain demographics that are either very favorable or very unfavorable to a given candidate. This could mean an oversampling of independents (which would hurt Clinton relative to Obama and Edwards), an oversampling of women (which would help Clinton relative to Obama and Edwards), or an oversampling of young voters (which would help Obama relative to Clinton and Edwards). There does not appear to be a broad pattern consistent across more than a handful of polls.
* Rasmussen is all over the map. Even as most other polls are showing Clinton improving against Giuliani relative to Obama, Rasmussen shows the exact opposite. Since mid-June, Rasmussen also shows Edwards as the most electable, while the other four polls taken during the same time period show the opposite. Once again, this creates serious problems when attempting to discern broad trends across all polls.

In short, across the board I don’t think that there is any clear evidence pointing to Hillary Clinton as less electable than Barack Obama and John Edwards at this time. Since June 11th, she only performs worse in the overall mean when all of Rasmussen’s four polls taken during that time period are included. This will further complicate attempts to take away her perceived advantage within the rank and file on “electability,” and thus further strengthen her position in the nomination campaign. If another candidate is going to pass her in the campaign, this does not strike me as a promising route for any candidate to pursue.

http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=38A2682ACB65E6BA8454DA9ABD0A682C?diaryId=1019

Obama, Clinton and Edwards are all electable. The candidates regularly argue over who is more electable. I call BS on that one. Once our party picks an electable nominee, then its up to us and the candidate to win the election. All we have to do is run a strong, smart campaign. Either of these guys candidates could win.

Barring any of the three "being caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy".

Clinton and Obama have already built a great organization in most of the country. Edwards is a little more limited due to lack of funds, but I trust a trial lawyer not to make any huge gaffes.

She finishes third when using www.realclearpolitics.com averages.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

Rudy Giuliani (R) vs. Barack Obama (D)
RCP Average 07/15 to 08/21 - 41.8% 45.8% Obama +4.0%
Rudy Giuliani (R) vs. John Edwards (D)
RCP Average 07/12 to 08/23 - 43.0% 45.0% Edwards +2.0%
Rudy Giuliani (R) vs. Hillary Clinton (D)
RCP Average 07/15 to 08/14 - 44.4% 44.6% Clinton +0.2%

Fred Thompson (R) vs. Barack Obama (D)
RCP Average 07/15 to 08/21 - 35.3% 48.8% Obama +13.5%
Fred Thompson (R) vs. John Edwards (D)
RCP Average 07/12 to 08/23 - 35.7% 48.0% Edwards +12.3%
Fred Thompson (R) vs. Hillary Clinton (D)
RCP Average 07/15 to 08/14 - 41.0% 47.3% Clinton +6.3%

John McCain (R) vs. John Edwards (D)
RCP Average 07/12 to 08/13 - 38.7% 46.7% Edwards +8.0%
John McCain (R) vs. Barack Obama (D)
RCP Average 07/17 to 08/13 - 38.7% 45.3% Obama +6.6%
John McCain (R) vs. Hillary Clinton (D)
RCP Average 07/17 to 08/16 - 42.3% 46.0% Clinton +3.7%

Mitt Romney (R) vs. Barack Obama (D)
RCP Average 06/20 to 08/16 - 36.5% 50.0% Obama +13.5%
Mitt Romney (R) vs. John Edwards (D)
RCP Average 06/20 to 07/19 - 37.3% 49.7% Edwards +12.4%
Mitt Romney (R) vs. Hillary Clinton (D)
RCP Average 06/21 to 07/18 - 38.3% 48.0% Clinton +9.7%

The closest she comes to any other candidate is 3.8% (Giuliani). And, 3.8% is a lot.

voted.

The dynamic is ever shifting, and the ebb and flow has not been established, nor will it be, until January '08 hits.

Which of these polls measures the percentage of Repub voters who would stay home or vote 3rd party if the GOP nominee is a Mormon or an adulterer, but would change their mind and vote for the devil himself if our nominee is Hillary Clinton?