Who's the GOP's most likely nominee?

The Republican party nominee is rarely hard to pick out. They generally nominate the best organized and the most corporately sealed candidate. I don't think they've nominated a geniune surprise or come from behind nominee since 1964, altho some people might make the case that Reagan's nomination in 1980 signaled a shift in which corporate interests selected their candidate.

But that said, they seem to have rotated through a number of duds this 2008 cycle. I don't think they have a geniune front runner. I remain perplexed they aren't rallying around McCain, who in my opinion remains the least insane of the bunch. My guess is then is that they'll nominate the best organized team. But who? Your guess is as good as mine.

(NB: for brevity's sake, I've left Dopey, Sleepy, and Bashful off the poll)

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then you have no choice but to go Romney. In terms of both organization and cash on hand, no other candidate comes close.

UNLESS he implodes altogether. I just saw his first ad today--even Tweety panned it. Pathetic.

Thompson is missing the "itness" that Reagan, Dole, and Dubya had. George Romney was a real mensch, so that whole Nixon thing will always be a mystery to me.

If I were a gambler, I'd say put your money on Romney. He has hands down the best ground game and the best media buys.

he's easy. No need to watch the debates, just watch the 30 second ad and forget about paying attention for the next year. How simple is that?

Freddie just wants to make it easy on the American people. We should not have to be forced to think or pay attention. We've all got better things to do.

Mz Pip
:dem:

The voice is sincere, who would question his honesty, his real-deal-ness? Fred may be the second coming of Reagan.

McCain is the least insane? I don't know, he's pretty far 'round the bend.

package him as Saint Ronnie Returns

I don't think they will pull the level for a Mormon, I just don't. Fred Thompson is likely to implode and even if not he's still got some catching up to do in the polls and in money. Rudy is int he strongest position right now. That could change, but rigt now, you have to say Rudy.

Remember, he doesn't need a majority in Iowa, just a plurality. If Romney can win in both those places and doesn't eat shit in South Carolina, I think the nomination is his. Some days I think we just overestimate how much the Fundies will cast doctrinal votes versus how much they are simply tribal and hate all nonRepublicans by rote.

The antiMormon thing will only have loose traction in the end. I suspect they're only saving that as an excuse in case he loses the race in November '08--just like the '06 rebuke was just about Foley and Abramoff.

I would have thought his negatives might spill over from MA. Rudy strikes me as being more up their alley.

I do think it will be Romney by default. The Freepers and Fundies will get over the Mormon thing to a large degree and the moderates that find Thompson a repulsive toad may tumble to him hoping that the fact that he lied about being a liberal and the fact that he is now lying about being a conservative must mean that he is really somewhere in the middle. Which he is probably is. On even days of the month.

is bad news. Sorry Clinton supporters. I'll do my duty, but don't ask me not to cringe when I vote.

Apparently he and Rupert are good pals.

zillionaires who can finance their politics.

and-drink-a-beer-with-me' " act.

America eats that shit up everytime.

Does Iran-Contra ring a bell?

To many North came out of that a hero.

I think it may have even dawned on the dolts among us that this didn't work out so well the last time.

Anecdotal, but I've got a Freeper boss who supports Romney because it's "nice to listen to someone who sounds intelligent for a change".

Emphasis on the word "sounds" of course. God forbid he or she actually IS intelligent......

don't be surprised if he does weLL. otherwise, it's gonna be romney being abLe to spend away aLL his fLip fLops, and totaL doucheb

I expect that the Repuds are likely to nominate Fred. The sorts of ideologues and sectarian zealots who vote in the GOP primaries are squarely "agin'" so-called "libruls" like Rudy Giuliani, and are likely to view Romney's supposed conversion to CPC (Conservative Politically Correct) views on abortion and homosexuality as being made far too late and insincere.

Moreover, I wouldn't underestimate sectarian bias. A good chunk of the evangelical Protestant community is strongly biased against the Latter Day Saints, and folk of that stripe are likely to hold Romney's membership in that church with the same hostility as some of their forebears had for Joseph Smith and Brigham Young.

I expect that the Religious Right will largely stay home in a snit on Election Day, then claim that the Republican candidate lost not because he was unpopular with the rest of the country, but because said Republican candidate "wasn't conservative enough."

He's raised lots of money before declaring his candidacy, he's got small-town Southern boy roots, went to Memphis State University for his degrees, and he's no dummy. Neither is his wife, and she won't be pregnant and wearing evening gowns when she campaigns for him.

Some think his first wife will help with his campaign. They were married 25 years before they split up. And he didn't even meet Jeri Kehn for another ten years so she didn't break up his marriage (unlike Princess Judy Guiliani or the second Mrs. McCain.)

He had two terms in the Senate and he left voluntarily. He promised when he ran that he would serve two terms only. I'll bet he's got lots of connections in D.C. still, he and his wife having been lobbyists there. And he's an actor. We saw how that helped Reagan. Bush managed to get voters by having good speechwriters and he doesn't deliver them well.

Romney has two big problems: the story about his dog and his being a Mormon. Most Americans love dogs and are most comfortable with mainstream Protestants. Ol' Fred belongs to the Church of Christ, which is more mainstream that the LDS, and he's probably got better sense than to transport a dog in a cage strapped to the top of a car. Of course, I'd have thought anybody would have better sense that that. And Mitt's pro-choice, too, right?

Rudy's had three wives, he's pro-choice, and he's Catholic, none of which will endear him to many Republicans.

McCain's had two wives and he's pro-chice, no wait, he's pro-life, no wait. . . He's just not going to make it, IMO.

They've all changed positions on abortion, I believe, except for Ol' Fred. I think Fred has some real advantages over the others, looking at it from the GOP viewpoint.

about his lobbying work for abortion rights. That went over like a lead balloon. Flippity floppity.

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I just find it funny the way his supporters mob internet polls. Go ahead, add him to the poll, I bet he'll be winning within a day...

R. Garrett

Even though he's a New York suit.

John Danforth and Rob Portman -- and could maybe salvage the party.

Danforth is fundamentally unacceptable to the rightwing kooks and also to the rightwing fundie nutbags, which means he has no chance at all of being the GOP nominee.

But he's among the very last few sentient Republicans left standing out there. The fact that the GOP base would reject him out of hand is a measure of how pathetic the Repubica Party really is.

Among their current field, I'll go with Romney because he's got some cash. Beyond that, I don't think they have a frontrunner.

You can't turn on the radio in the fly-over states without hearing near-orgasmic panting over his candidacy.

The Republicans don't care about substance - only the candidate's ability to act as though he has it.

Big Money loves the Mitten Man. When it comes to choosing GOP nominees Big Money still has the most sway. The Fundies aren't sold yet but I expect them to come around after Fred Thompson falls flat on his face.

Fred Thompson is the Fundy great white hope. They will be disappointed.

I've never believed that Rudy G. had a shot. The Fundies won't support him and I have a feeling that Big Money considers him a flake.

Huck's not trusted by Big Money but has support among the Fundies. He could be dangerous if he gets the nomination.

McCain's at various times pissed off Big Money and the Fundamentalists. If Republicans were sane, he'd have a shot as he has crossover appeal. Fortunately the Republicans are not sane.

on the "my son's ARE serving their country - they serve me!" bullshit. Soldier's dad let him have it.

That coupled with Rudy just singing "New York, New York" over and over again, and McCain actually came off reasonably well.