Ducking debates isn't as risky as it used to be

CNN: Ducking debates isn't as risky as it used to be
By Bill Schneider
CNN Senior Political Analyst

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- With so many debates scheduled, can candidates get away with not showing up? It depends on whether voters see a pattern. Democrats have held seven major debates already this year. Republicans have held five. At least 13 more Democratic debates and 10 more Republican debates have been scheduled. "As debates multiply and more and more groups ask to be part of the debates, candidates can decline them with less political risk," said Stephen Hess, senior scholar at the Brookings Institution.

Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois declined an invitation to participate in a Democratic debate in Iowa this week, co-sponsored by the AARP. Can he get away with that? Senior citizens are an important constituency. Iowa is an important state. "The downside is probably a maximum 24 hours of bad news," Hess said. Obama has said he intends to limit his participation in these events so he can spend more time talking directly to voters. He also said he has been to Iowa many times and will be there many more times....

What does it mean when a whole group of candidates fails to show up? "When eight candidates stand together in one position, it usually means a lot more'' than when one or two candidates take a pass, Hess said. When the Democratic candidates refused to show up at debates co-sponsored by Fox News this year, they were making a statement about Fox News.

Only one Republican candidate showed up at an NAACP forum in Detroit, Michigan. Was that a statement? "Do you think we should wait a few minutes and see if these other guys show up?" Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado asked at the forum, where he stood surrounded by empty podiums. McCain was the only major Republican candidate to accept a debate invitation from Univision, the Spanish-language network. All the major Republican candidates have turned down an invitation to participate in a forum next week hosted by Tavis Smiley to discuss minority issues. The candidates claim they have scheduling conflicts....

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Candidates may be concerned about becoming targets themselves if they show up at what they consider unfriendly forums. They risk having to answer difficult questions, making commitments that may be hard to keep or drawing a hostile response that will show up on news broadcasts. On the other hand, if voters see a pattern of nonparticipation, they could read it as a statement: that the candidates are indifferent to the groups' concerns. And willing to write off their votes....

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/09/20/dodging.debates/index.html