Most Democrats Still Undecided On 2008

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Most Democrats Still Undecided On 2008
by: Chris Bowers
Fri Oct 05, 2007 at 14:55:55 PM EDT

When considering the lack of blogger endorsements in 2008, a subject which crops up from time to time as a source of discussion, I think everyone should consider the following:

1. In 2004, nearly two million Americans donated to a Democratic presidential campaign (large PDF, pages 14-15). Currently, despite Obama's primary season record, at most only about 750,000 to 800,000 Americans have donated to a Democratic presidential campaign. More than half of the 2004 donors have yet to give. The actual total number of current donors to Democratic campaigns is probably less than 750,000, since many people have donated to multiple candidates. For example, and in the interest of disclosure, I myself have donated to both Edwards and Richardson. I haven't made any donations since April.

2. Currently, 114 of the 285 Democratic members of, and delegates to, Congress have made an endorsement in the 2008 presidential primary. This includes all five current members of Congress who are running for President, three Senators who have endorsed the candidate from their home state, and 43 representatives who have endorsed a candidate from their home state. In other words, not only have less than 40% of Congressional Democrats endorsed, nearly half of those who have endorsed simply endorsed the favorite son or daughter. Barely a quarter of all Democrats in Congress have endorsed someone from outside their home state.

3. A majority of Democrats are still undecided, and a supermajority of Democratic voters are still basically undecided. Pollster.com has a good post on this today. As an example, the latest poll out of New Hampshire indicated that only 17% of voters have definitely decided who to vote for, while another 28% are leaning toward a candidate. Fully 55% indicated they are still trying to decide. The latter number is down from 64% in July, but it still indicates a significant majority are either completely undecided, or simply leaning toward one candidate or another.

In the past, I offered some personal thoughts on why I haven't endorsed in 2008, and wondered if other bloggers felt the same way. However, I think the answer for the lack of endorsements is actually rather simple. The majority of Democratic members of Congress, the majority of Democratic donors, and the majority of Democratic voters have not yet taken sides in the 2008 primary campaign. Given that, why should progressive bloggers be any different?

Some partisans are pretty intense for their various candidates right now. For those who are dedicated to a candidate, it might seem strange for so many Democrats to be sitting on the sidelines, or still trying to make up their minds. Personal passion can breed puzzlement when encountering others who are less impassioned. However, the undecideds are still in the majority, meaning that there is nothing strange about people not endorsing so far. Also, it means that there is the potential for a lot of movement in the campaign as we move closer and closer to the start of the actual voting and caucusing. Support is either soft or non-existent, and a couple of major events could shake up the campaign dramatically.

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they (myself included) haven't decided on who to throw their support behind in the Dem party.

facts, and D.U.

imbedded links. I don't know how much 'substantiated' you require.

babylonsister, you are a very well read articulate person and I enjoy All your Posts and comments.I was commenting on the statement in the above post that said " the people elected " Shrub.

more defensive in this forum! :crazy: I misunderstood what you were saying.:hi:

so we just need to get in line

... and he should, for a cranium as large as his must hide something inside.

I really shouldn't bust Bower's chops. He believes in the accuracy of polls. I can't wait for the typical poll naysayers here to express approval of this, though.

with as much information ,but in this case if it serves as a kick in the ass ,I approve!

is that of those polled the majority are land line users. versus the majority of telephone numbers are to Cell phones. so the field is wide open. just because your candidate has money, or leads in this poll or that. really at this juncture with the vast majority undecided... its anybody s race.

that said if you add them in, there is only a few percentage points difference in what the landline telephone polls show. However, that report was several years ago and cell phone use has grown even since then, and those who have only a cell phone and no landline phone have grown in number too. So, I think that is still an interesting point to ponder.

:patriot:

Today's polls should have an asteric beside them. They are only among that group of people who have already decided, and Hillary leads among that group at this point.

It is anyone's guess who the rest will eventually decide on....and this is obvious because they don't know how they are going to vote at this point either!

I think even those saying who they support now, are not firmly committed. And then there are those that are swayed by the outcomes of the first couple of primaries. I'm not feeling now that it's definitely HRC.

n/t

became the nominee. I could see myself supporting several of the candidates this go around so why settle on just one until I absolutely have to? :shrug:

I am waiting to give to Gore!!

RUN AL RUN!

fly

have for many years proclaimed (when politically useful) that there should be a black/women in the WH. And like the old dog chasing cars is confused with the car stops, for voters the car has stopped. There will be a black/women in the WH.