"Dislike Hillary" factor could fade - Democratic Underground

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Mon Oct-08-07 07:38 AM
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"Dislike Hillary" factor could fade

WASHINGTON — Hillary Clinton's opponents are hyping this bit of conventional wisdom: If she wins the Democratic nomination, her high negative ratings in polls will make it especially difficult for her to win the general election in November 2008.

Karl Rove, the guru behind President Bush's political career, framed this widely held view when he called Clinton a "fatally flawed" candidate because of her high negatives.

"There is no front-runner who has entered the primary season with negatives as high as she has in the history of modern polling," Rove said.

But some polling experts said Clinton's negatives — generally about 45 percent of people tell pollsters they view her unfavorably — may not be politically fatal or much of a drag.

The fluid nature of politics, the New York senator's evolving profile and the Electoral College map combine to suggest Clinton may not be too polarizing to win after all, several independent experts said.

"Nothing is completely locked in stone," said Michael Dimock, associate director of the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. "People shift, and contexts shift. The context people perceive her in has changed. ...

Unfavorable ratings in the 40s don't preclude victory. Bush was re-elected in 2004 with negative ratings ranging into the mid-40s, about the same as those of Democratic nominee John Kerry.

Detractors said that in the tumult of a general-election campaign, candidates' unfavorable ratings generally rise. If Clinton's were to increase much more, she'd be dangerously close to the 50s, meaning more people would dislike her than like her.

But it's possible her negatives could stabilize or decline as voters are reintroduced to her and she's matched against a Republican with negatives of his own.

Many Americans' image of Clinton was set in the 1990s, when she was first lady. As a New York senator since 2001, she has changed her style.

For example, those who say they dislike Clinton could change their minds "once the debates start and she cleans somebody's clock," said Larry Harris, principal at Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.

And "her negatives are probably already out," said Cliff Zukin, a polling expert at Rutgers University. That may not be as true for her opponents.

"Do people in Florida know Rudy Giuliani has had three wives? Probably not. Do they know Mitt Romney's had this position, then that position? Probably not," Zukin said.

"She's like a quasi-incumbent. Whoever wins the early state primaries will get more press scrutiny. But there's less downside of that for her. What are we going to find out about Hillary Clinton that's really going to surprise us? There's more potential for negative growth in other candidates."

Clinton's history and her husband's show it's possible to reverse high negative ratings.

In August 1995, Bill Clinton's negative rating was 49 percent in a Pew poll. Yet he was re-elected easily the year after.

In 1996, a Pew poll showed Hillary Clinton's unfavorability rating at 54 percent. Two years later, it was 31 percent.

Clinton's high negatives may be skewed because she's wildly unpopular in some places and less so in others.

"Take Alabama," Harris said. "Everybody hates her there, just about. But guess what: She's gonna lose Alabama anyway. The election is going to be won in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan."

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2003931076_clintonneg07.html