Would a Christianist third party bid help us or hurt us?

Here's how subtle politics can be...

Imagine that Guliani wins the primaries and James Dobson backs a robust anti-abortion third party candidate movement.

That would guarantee that the Dem nominee would win the presidency.

But consider the effect on the RW religious voter. Millions of people who would have protested Rudy by staying home now protest Rudy by going to the polls. And they vote the Republican party line, except for President. So maybe we end up with 52 Dems in the Senate instead of 56.

The presidency is so important that I would gladly take the bird in the hand. Hell, I would probably even donate money to the Christianist campaign! But this thought experiment points up the folly of overly simple political thinking of the sort pundits dispense for a living. Electoral politics is a dynamic system with literally millions of moving parts, roughly as predictable as the weather. We can talk about broad trends (December will be colder than July), and we have a good idea what will happen three or four days from now, but that's about it

will be forced to vote by their pastors who are really their 'daddies'..so it makes no nevermind..except we will win by an overwhelming majority!!

than Christianist, that separation of Church and State thingy that they still have to give lip service to but don't practice.

They wouldn't do it though for the very reasons you state. They know it would divide the RW vote. The people behind the dimwitted front men aren't stupid.

the party of god. And they will nominate Brownback/Phelps in 08.

It was the sudden reversal of groups that traditionally did not vote or voted Democrat that shifted our situation. The Reagan years brought the religious right fully into the GOPs grasp. Distrust of mingling government and religion had long kept this group out of politics but the issues of abortion, homosexual rights, and prayer were used to override this inhibition.

If the religious right were to abandon the republicans they would be back in the doldrums again floundering around. So yeah. If a Christian based third party option happened it would be a serious blow to the GOP.

I had not thought of the other ballot lines. The optimum situation might even be to encourage enough of a splinter to lose the Republicans, but not enough to defeat the Democrats. I'm not even sure we could manipulate things that subtly. They would so lose the Presidency though. I wonder if that would embolden the third party to run in more races in 2010.

But that wouldn't make much sense because congressman from religious RW districts are already representing that constituency very well.

I would prefer the fundies to have a candidate they've fallen in love with, than to depend on them to just stay home!

When you have any group that thinks that as long as they believe in an invisible entity, they are home free and free to do what they want, you have trouble, big trouble. Christianists may be docile for the time being but these are unsettling times and any damn thing can happen so I would just as soon stay the hell away from them.

Rudy is one of those people who would not be forced to the right because its not what he's all about. Having lived with him as my mayor for 2 terms (Both times I voted for him) I think it helps us a ton. He is really only republican in name only or at worst an old style Rockefeller republican and that makes him almost extinct as Repuke politics goes.

So that would drive the crazies into the hands of this 3rd party. The rest would be so demoralized they would sit this election out. That leaves Dems and Independents left and I love our chances going for that demo in this election.

it's just that there's a huge battle brewing between the neocons, who only care about war and foreign policy and don't give a shit about domestic/social issues like gays, abortion, or family-values crap, vs. social conservatives, who are all about fundie issues. That's why it's Rudy vs. Dobson. Rudy's not an old-fashioned "paleocon" Repub--he's a total neocon nutjob.

Hes hard to pin down imo politically as any republican mayor of NY by definition must be to survive. He has some good traits and some scary traits, but I wouldn't call them neocon. He is very comfortable with power, too comfortable and that scares me. When I think of Rudy I don't think of "Neocon". I think Nelson R. Republican about 50% and the rest very hard to pin down but some of it is Dem party ideas, some libertarian and maybe even some Neocon but he had these traits before there was even a word called "neocon".

It's very surprising to me that he has lasted this far in their primary. They don't know him well enough yet I would guess. I would never vote for him as president and I both like him and dislike him at the same time even though that makes not too much sense.

Dobson) does not mean all his constituents will follow.

Even Richard Land, Official wiht Southern Baptist Convention
is careful to say "I" will not support Guilliani. He has
stated that many of his followers support Guilliani because
they believe he can win (beat HRC).

IMO, these leaders are lobbyist and posture. WHEN GWB
started to run, there were groups within the C.Coalition
who had John Ashcroft as their candidate. They did some
horse trading . In the end GWB got their votes and John
Ashcroft became Attorney General.

Up until now the GOP have denied having a Litmus Test for
the Presidency. (One has to be pro-life to be GOP President.

The Christian Coalition are not stupid. They know a third
party loses the presidency.

If by the time of the Primary a Pro Lifer has not moved up
and strong enough to knock off the top tier, there will be
a whole lot of horsetrading--not a thrid party. My take.

It is of utmost importance that Dems expand seats in
House and Senate. Just in case the GOP does take the
Presidency--and if we get the Presidency, better support
for our positions on the issues.

It worked in Florida, ending up with a chimp as Commander-in-Chief.

And he won by the narrowest of a (stolen) majority.

But it wouldn't have been so narrow if it weren't for Nader taking money from secret GOP operatives.

So, give away. Support your local Christofascist party.

You won't regret the results.

And I agree with you... I believe it would be good all around. But my level of certainty is 90%, not 100%. There are always wrinkles to consider.

We hear a lot about "energizing the republican base" around here, so it is worth noting that a nut-right presidential candidate would, in fact, energize the republican base. Just not to vote for the republican PRESIDENTIAL nominee, but energized just the same.

The Republicans are basically two groups. The extreme religious "fambly values" group and a more sane "fiscal traditionalist" group (the Goldwater Republicans).

Culling off the extremists into their own tent would not only split them, but it would also take away the loudest Republican megaphone.

I think it's a win-win situation.

After all, the GOP has been running successful campaigns with the fetus fetish out in front, acting as sucker bait to disguise their other policies of beggaring the population to fatten the rich and creating a corporate world empire.

Once the naked greed and ambition are exposed without the "altruistic" disguise of saving all the bay bees, their support will be very thin.

Antichoicers are already pretty much voting GOP instead of Democratic, so the loss of them to Dobson's party won't be much of a loss for Democrats.

but those that stay home would very likely outnumber the additional third party voters.

I read about the logic earlier today of a religious fanatic backed third party run, but never thought about the other races.

The logic behind a religious right backed third party run was that a Rudy presidency would destroy the religious right influence over the republican party by showing it's powerless. It would prove you don't need to be a social conservative to win the nomination. At the same time the logic was that a Hillary presidency, or any other democrat winning the presidency would be preserving the religious right movement.

I'd love to see the religious right movement wiped out like they fear, but not at the cost of having Rudy as our next commander in chief.