I need your speculation. Is the Armenian Genocide bill...

1) a really devious way of knocking the logistical support out from under the Iraq (and Iran, and Afghanistan) war efforts?

2) a phony controversy designed to distract from the build-up to bombing Iran?

3) just some "constituent service" for Nanci's Armenian voters?

4) an oblique play for the Jewish "never forget" voters?

5) payback to Turkey for playing footsie with Dennis Hastert?

6) A Turkish false flag operation designed to allow them to grab the Kurds oil wells?

7) none of the above

8) all of the above

This is a really bizarre situation. So bizarre that someone has to be planning it.

I think we could all have fun speculating about it.

arendt

....

In a series of interviews in Europe, the Middle East, and the United States, officials told me that by the end of last year Israel had concluded that the Bush Administration would not be able to bring stability or democracy to Iraq, and that Israel needed other options. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s government decided, I was told, to minimize the damage that the war was causing to Israel’s strategic position by expanding its long-standing relationship with Iraq’s Kurds and establishing a significant presence on the ground in the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan. Several officials depicted Sharon’s decision, which involves a heavy financial commitment, as a potentially reckless move that could create even more chaos and violence as the insurgency in Iraq continues to grow.

Israeli intelligence and military operatives are now quietly at work in Kurdistan, providing training for Kurdish commando units and, most important in Israel’s view, running covert operations inside Kurdish areas of Iran and Syria. Israel feels particularly threatened by Iran, whose position in the region has been strengthened by the war. The Israeli operatives include members of the Mossad, Israel’s clandestine foreign-intelligence service, who work undercover in Kurdistan as businessmen and, in some cases, do not carry Israeli passports.

....

The Israeli decision to seek a bigger foothold in Kurdistan—characterized by the former Israeli intelligence officer as “Plan B”—has also raised tensions between Israel and Turkey. It has provoked bitter statements from Turkish politicians and, in a major regional shift, a new alliance among Iran, Syria, and Turkey, all of which have significant Kurdish minorities. In early June, Intel Brief, a privately circulated intelligence newsletter produced by Vincent Cannistraro, a retired C.I.A. counterterrorism chief, and Philip Giraldi, who served as the C.I.A.’s deputy chief of base in Istanbul in the late nineteen-eighties, said:

Turkish sources confidentially report that the Turks are increasingly concerned by the expanding Israeli presence in Kurdistan and alleged encouragement of Kurdish ambitions to create an independent state. . . . The Turks note that the large Israeli intelligence operations in Northern Iraq incorporate anti-Syrian and anti-Iranian activity, including support to Iranian and Syrian Kurds who are in opposition to their respective governments.


....

http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2004/06/28/040628fa_fact?printable=true

and I think you'll find your answer.

No time to Google any more with such an obscure query.

arendt

It benefits the hawks at AIPAC, but I don't think they want their fingerprints all over it.

Israel puts pressure on "doves" by doing something that screws up our war effort?

What, are they going to turn around and blame Pelosi after this bill results in our
supply lines being cut? Force the Dems to vote to expand the war, then?

Then, why would Pelosi be pushing a bill that will boomerang against her? Because
her secret desire is to expand the war?

Or, is she being blackmailed about the NSA wiretap thing?

Doesn't make sense to me. Not that I am not open to be educated.

Its just that I am too distracted and too unfamiliar with the side shows in the M.E.
to follow all the Byzantine plotting and false flag operations. The media, with the
exception of Sy, is useless.

So, could I beg you to explain this a little bit deeper? Given your caution so far,
I would understand if you just wanted to P.M. me, and let me take the heat for
"discovering" it.

arendt

the Kurdish militia is working for the Israelis, the Turks have offered to bargain with the US to keep this vote from happening.

You are saying that this vote is a way of getting the Turks to back off on attacking the Kurds?

But, this vote is just a further kick in the teeth.

The Turks will back off on the Kurds if they get a SYMBOLIC victory in the Congress about
Armenian Genocide? That is so important to them???

:sigh: Middle East politics is so irrational to me.

arendt

And the fact that there are no real allies in the Middle East, just people you're not at war with.

You have to remember, the Kurds aren't just getting support from Israel--they've been in business with practically EVERYONE at one point or another, including Turkey, Iran, Syria, Israel, the Saudis, etcetera. They're wildcards, which every powerful country wants to have pointed at the other guy, not at them. The Kurdish "territory" spreads across Iran, Iraq, Turkey, and Syria, meaning all four countries at various times have encouraged Kurdish insurrection in the other three. Meanwhile, the Israelis and the Saudis have tried to buy influence more or less on general principles.

In my opinion, this vote benefits the Turks, because it gives them an excuse to ignore US diplomatic requests to step down attacks on the Kurds, and if they make enough noise, we'll probably bribe them for the use of their airspace and bases again.

I'll give it about 4 responses before we get one though.

:)

it's always been put off because of "bad timing." Pelosi decided to get it done.

I suspect it is mostly Repuke. So why? who knows?

it's not so odd that this bill is coming up, it's had a lot of support and its substance is hardly controversial.

The better question is, why hasn't it come up before now?

Things in the world happen every day without people planning them. See the Iraq War. I'd say that the bill itself is exactly what it looks like, plus a rap on the knuckles to the idea that somebody gets a get-out-of-jail free card for being our "allies." Meanwhile, the Turks are pretending to be more offended than they really are, and withdrawing their ambassador so that we can't tell them to cease their operations in northern Iraq, particularly if they step up the ground war against the Kurds. And knowing how the Bush admin operates, the Turks will probably get bribed with an extra few billion in weapons and/or money to smooth things over and make sure we can still use their airspace.

This bill is a precisely timed kick in the teeth - just when the Kurdish guerillas are attacking Turkey from refuges inside Kurdish Iraq, where they are protected by U.S. troops.

I am not that much of a coincidence theorist.

arendt

Turkey is an important ally and must continue to be in the Western camp. Turkey will never tolerate an independent Kurdish state, as it would encourage its own separatist Kurdish minority. Can we stop rebel Kurds from crossing into Turkey from Iraq. It is up to us, and one of the great messes the Iraq conflict has stirred up.

The EU has not been overly friendly to Turkey lately, and the timing of this Armenian resolution is interesting to say the least. What is going on here? Somebody is making calculations of the kind that have a way of blowing up in their faces. Luckily, a rise in Turkish nationalism may not lead to strengthening Islamic fundamentalists, as Turkey has been a secular state for several generations. But it might. Frankly, I am worried. Turkey is of great strategic importance to the west and a bridge to more Islamist countries. Turks, for the most part, want to be part of the West, if we will have them.

And deciding not to let the Turks off the hook again isn't the same thing as a Goldbergian plan to end the war via Turkey's overstated hissy fit. If anyone's exploiting this, it's Turkey. Don't get me wrong--now that it's going this way, if I were Pelosi I'd absolutely jam the thing through, and do as much damage as I could possibly do. In terms of ending the war, though, I doubt it'll be a killing stroke.

Though it may fall under "screw you Bush" kind of vote. Especially seeing the reaction from the administration it seems to be doing its job.

screw you bush + honor armenian massacre = correct priorities?

Not sure

made it look like a foreign policy type mistake by the Dems endangering our troops in the middle of this war.
I can't believe they did not know this would be horrible timing esp since Turkey has been making noises about going into Iraq for the past year. It really makes no sense to me.

Many of the official Jewish organizations have taken a neutral position on this as Turkey is one of the few countries that is an ally to Israel. To me, as a Jew, this is hypocritical for this reason.

This has bubbled around for sometime - and is usually pushed by Eastern Orthodox Christians. The middle East is always a mess so I think it has been suppressed often before.

This is supposed to incur the wrath of mainland China, but does not seem to gain the same amount of scrutiny or debate.

spiral out of control ON EDIT:"into IRAN", and now into Turkey.

What *imminent* damage is the D.L. meeting going to cause?

I mean, if the Chinese are upset, they can take it out on us by screwing with the dollar.

arendt

Isn't it just posturing on their part? I think action against the Kurds has been ongoing and this was one of my earliest concerns about the Iraq War spreading regionally and creating the dynamic for an actual World War. When I expressed that concern previously, some dismissed it as something that would never happen. I don't think this vote is the trigger. It may actually serve as a deterrent by pointing out the Turkish past as it might relate to the present and their quest will be seen as another attempt at genocide of the Kurds. As I wrote, this has been a concern because of the tribal nature of the area and the fact we have unleashed civil war that is merely centered in Iraq, but could engulf the entire region, from the Arab Peninsula to the Mediterranean Sea and through all of the -stans. How long before it might spread to India, China, and Russia. The old hostilities between Greece and Turkey and the Baltic nations are a historic tinderbox. To blame the Dems for one vote seems absurd when the failure has been on the part of this administration to conduct diplomacy in this region. If they had they might have been able to prevent this vote if it were truly a hindrance. They have no credibility and our foreign policy is non-existent.

The vote isn't a "justification". Its more like waving a red cape in front of an already enraged, and stabbed, bull.

It is as if we are trying to goad a stubborn and insulted people into doing something stupid. Turks get
no respect. When they were secularists, the West ran them down as brutal. Now that they let Islamists
into the government, we turn lose guerillas and bash them for something that happened before even
the secularists came to power.

Yes. I agree. It is all a hideous, Gordian knot of blood feud.

I'm just asking why we are sticking our nose into it at this particular moment in this particular way.
I had hoped someone could explain to me how political capital can be spent on this, but not on SCHIP
or climate change.

arendt

I think the votes have been there for a long time and it's easy. There was another post with the list of cosponsors, but there was some speculation that some GOPers might back out. If it requires actual political capital, I think it would die. I linked on the other post that Hastert claimed he tabled it originally at the request of Bill Clinton. It is hard to believe anything he might say, but I suppose Edmonds could be fabricating the bribe story. But if Hastert was truthful in that regard, at least the Clinton team conducted real diplomacy and I would give them the benefit of doubt. I know the Armenian community held a strong demonstration at Hastert's office led by System of a Down's Serj Tankian, a co-founder of Axis of Justice.

who are Republicans and wants to win them over.

and collective consciousness that cannot be ignored. The regional antipathy toward them is well beyond the scope of most on this site. Frankly, I suspect we're all being treated to a smoke and mirrors performance as Iran WILL back Turkey protecting its territorial integrity and the Amis will use any conflagration to justify an attack to grab Iran's oil...