Some Disturbing News for Dems in Nikki Tsongas Election in MA...51% to 45%..

Josh Marshall has this up and it's very interesting...plus comments from two of his readers about their experience with the election ....at the link:

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Hmmm ...
10.16.07 -- 10:19PM
By Josh Marshall

It hasn't gotten much attention outside of the Boston suburbs and truly hardcore political junkies. But there was a congressional election today. The topline is that the Democrat, Nikki Tsongas, wife of the late Massachusetts senator and presidential candidate Paul Tsongas, won. But the details are much more interesting. As of 10:23 PM, with 88% of precincts reporting, Tsongas has only 51% vs 45% for the Republican Jim Ogonowski.

That is weird. This is Massachusetts, after all, specifically the rim of suburbs to the northwest of Boston, Marty Meehan's (D) old seat, the 5th district. This is strong Democratic territory. At Openleft.com, Chris Bowers says it's a +10 Dem district. (By the way, among many other things, this is one of the best sites to get smart and candid analyses and number-crunches of stuff like this.) One of many eye-popping numbers about this race was that the Republican, Ogonowski, was crushing Tsongas among voters under 35.

So what happened? Bowers had an interesting post yesterday evening analyzing Tsongas' expected narrow victory. His basic verdict is that Tsongas was a lousy candidate, nominated largely on the basis of her husband's reputation, and picked by an "ossifying" local political machine that hadn't faced a real race in decades. But Chris isn't putting that forward just as an excuse; he notes that the same probably applies to the machines that run numerous solidly Dem districts around the country.
There's so much bad data out there for the Republicans today that I'm inclined to think that this is the issue -- a really good Republican candidate, a really bad Democratic candidate. But only fools spin excuses and rationales for data that doesn't square with their assumptions. So I'm not sure I'm ready to let go of this one yet.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/056155.php

that seems paralyzed by fear and unable to break its habit of cowering from the bullies on the other side. Our congressional leadership has been unable to excite us, the base of the party, so how can we expect young voters to be excited. SCHIP is really important, but it is policy. It only appeals to political pros. The Democrats in Congress refuse to be bold about the big issues -- like human rights. This is our problem and it could cause our defeat in 2008. I hope this narrow margin will wake up a few of our party's leaders.

was as a pilot killed on 9/11 and he trying to put the FEAR ON with the immigration issue..which in the end not enough of them bought.

What is it there that is so difficult to understand by out of state bloggers. Why is it that people want to change what is really a victory in a difficult election because of the special election in a defeat for Democrat. Some people must be masochist. (does not mean you cannot draw lessons from this election, but please, stop repeating what the GOP is saying).

http://www.bluemassgroup.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=9126

when 2 out of 3 nationwide support our positions.

It should be even higher in Massachusetts.

WE'RE THE MODERATES, DAMMIT!

normal for the district.

Many people fell for the anti-immigration positions of the GOP there (basically the only position he had), and some people are desesperately stupid. You wont change that. But the result is in line with previous elections in the district where there was no incumbent.

Now, if people want to continue whining because people there did not listen to online bloggers, that may be part of our problems. People on the ground knew it would not be an easy election. Now, if some bloggers and some DC operatives want to believe that winning in 08 will be easy, it is their problem and their error. It will not be. It NEVER is.

and he told me that she didn't run a great campaign anyway and that her opponent did run a good campaign, plus as you mentioned it's the most moderate district in the state and this isn't a surprise at all. I don't think Josh Marshall knows much about the district.

If your district consists of stupid xenophobes, please don't call them "moderates".

:shrug:

Just because we're a majority and just because we are right doesn't mean we will win.

If it did, Al Gore would be President.

And electing a "Moderate Democrat" is like saying you were "Moderately Saved From Drowning."

Really? Care to back that up? For example, do 2 out of 3 support our position on immigration (which was one of the prominent issues in the 5th District special election? Do 2 out of 3 know what our position on immiigration is?

In Andover no less and let me tell you it's full of righties. The Lawrence Eagle Tribune is one of the larger newspapers and they are as ruby red as you can get. Lots of farms and rural areas where you'll find the more conservative voters and then the wealthy in Andover (and towns like that) who usually always go Republican. Ogo is a farmer and a basically nice guy although he's on the wrong side of most of the issues. His connection to 9/11 was appealing to many. And talk radio here is nasty - Howie Carr and Jay Severin and even the Dems on talk radio are conservative. They reach a pretty big audience and they are powerful.

This isn't the end of the world. It isn't the end of Blue Massachusetts. Let's please don't get our panties in a wad over this.

Kerry won Andover suprisingly, not by much but he won it.

there. I grew up in Markey's district.

and most Democrats thought the other Democrats would make the effort and go to the polls, meaning this election was one which represented mostly the people who don't work for a living, the elderly. They tend to be more conservative, so the results aren't at all surprising to me.

Working folks tend to make the effort for national elections, but having an election on a work day in a suburb far from their jobs is an unsurmountable obstacle for too many of them.

I've lived in this district most of my life. I'm in Lowell, which is the largest city in the district, and is fairly blue. But it's surrounded by red towns. Massachusetts is not a bright, solid blue spot on the map. It's got some sizable red streaks, especially in some of the 'burbs and rural areas. Fortunately, the blue usually overcomes the red. But not always, as governors Weld, Cellucci, Swift and Romney can attest.

against bushit, then?

A crazy lunatic who is enjoying the death of his brother-in-law versus a member of the reality-based community.

Come on!

I expected only the crazy rapture-ready crowd to vote for that clown.

And I am sure that many people sat this one out, thinking it was in the bag for Tsongas.

:shrug:

who was killed on 9/11 as a pilot for American Airlines..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Ogonowski

I don't see that happening anytime soon, but I guess it could. So far our polling prospects for 2008 look pretty damn good.

as much as we might Wish it...our Dems are throwing the Activists under the Bus and trashing them. Where is the ENERGY for CLINTON? Where is the Candidate who is FIGHTING FOR US? If it's just "creaky Dem apparatus or Rahm Emmanuel's DLC Crowd PICKING the Candidates...then What is the Point?

You could stay home or rouse out of bed and vote for Status Quo.

I didn't spend SEVEN LONG YEARS to have some kind of REDUX or REGURGITATION of PAST ELECTIONS..!

Neither did many of us here who only lurk because they are so DISGUSTED with the SYSTEM!

the democratic party is not immune to this -- simply by virtue that they are democrats.

and this is where this begins to remind me of dccc and the 04 elections.

running candidates with little charisma and real heart for this game because they are embedded in the ''company''.

things like this could bite us in the ass so to speak.

had best take note.