Skippy!
Those 5 southern senate seats are nothing to turn our nose up at...that's for sure.
I read one article and about cutting the South out...and man, it was so pathetic, I had to respond:
A route for 2004 that doesn't go through Dixiestory:
http://tinyurl.com/2dxpoHere's my letter:
Dear Mr. Schaller,
I respectfully object to the sentiments expressed in your analysis, a route for 2004 that doesn't go through Dixie. Your last paragraph demonstrates the fallacy of your own analysis when readers are left, after two and one half pages of text, with this "loser of an argument" in where you state: "IF the Democrats can hold the Gore States-- a big "IF", but they have to start somewhere, plus capture newly competitive Arizona's 10 electors, that's exactly 270".
I have always understood that when one strategize, it is usually wise to have Plan A, Plan B, etc... You are offering Plan A only with no backups. Why am I not cheered by this finding?
As a Democrat, I am not willing to partake in your experimental never before tested premise in order to win this historic and all important election. Your first assumption that Howard Dean will be the nominee made your work very difficult indeed. You question whether Democratic Presidential Candidates can compete in the South. That should be changed to your real question, whether Howard Dean can compete in the South. You answer your own question with a two word answer; They can't. That should also be changed to, Dean can't. Maybe that's why Howard Dean as the nominee is not the best strategy for Democrats who want to win the general election.
To be useful to your Democratic readers, your analysis should have included an analysis of various candidate's chances in the south. Could General Wes Clark, the 2nd man in the race win all of the states that Howard Dean might win and some southern states as well? Is it possible that many Democrats do not want to give up on the five Southern Democratic Senate seats that will be at play during the general election? Do Democrats want to give George Bush the advantage of him not having to campaign in the south? would that mean that Bush would be free to concentrate elsewhere, like in some previously won Gore states?
Now if you'd answered those questions, I would have read your work with greater interest. Maybe the real conclusion of your analysis that you altogether left out is that Howard Dean may not be the best candidate if Democrats want to take back the White House. Your article may be useful to the Howard Dean campaign, but it only alarmed me.
Regards,