Rasmussen- Clinton Gains on Giuliani, Thompson; Now Leads Both by Six

After a recent tightening of her match-ups with two leading GOP contenders, Democratic Senator Hillary Clinton now enjoys a modest advantage over each. Clinton leads former Mayor Rudy Giuliani 48% to 42% in the latest Rasmussen Reports .


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_clinton_vs_giuliani_thompson

:thumbsup:

I have a feeling that both of the polls showing Obama & Hillary down two to Rudy were outliers.

Same thing happened in Aug when Ras put out a poll showing Obama down 6, next time he was up 2.

I think this was a one day poll but it is in line with other polls of the same vintage...

The advantage in the Giuliani-Clinton match-up has snapped back and forth like a ping-pong ball all year long. Only once since November has either candidate reached 50% support: Giuliani, in February, when he led 52% to 43%. Neither candidate has fallen below 40% support. On several occasions—most recently in June and July, for three polls in a row—Clinton and Giuliani have been just a point apart, or tied.

Individual polls can sometimes overstate volatility in a race, especially when the results carry a four percentage point margin of sampling error. One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling-average of three consecutive polls. Using this approach, Clinton and Giuliani have both been within two points of the 45% mark for twelve consecutive polls dating back to May 1, 2007. The candidates have been within two points of each other on seven of those twelve surveys.

Still, while the candidates have hovered consistently around that 45% level of support, a trend in Clinton’s favor can easily be detected. During the first eight sets of three-poll averages, Giuliani was “ahead” in seven and tied with Clinton in the eighth. Clinton has held the advantage in the last four updates of the three poll rolling average. She currently leads 47% to 43%.

It’s worth noting that on individual polls with a four point margin of sampling error, Giuliani has been within four points of the 45% mark for fourteen consecutive surveys dating back to March. Clinton has been within four points of the 45% mark on eighteen of nineteen surveys dating back to December.

But I have made a decision for the month of Dec & Jan, I think I am going to pay for subscriptions for some of these polls so I can look at the crosstabs and other goodies.

Carter...

The Hill 51% , the (R) 47% Scattered 2%

I used to hate ROBOCALLING but they have a great track record which is on their site...

More data then one can digest I imagine.

:kick:

Why did they forget to tell Rasmussen?:eyes:

K&R